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Home My WebLink AboutAsheville Buncombe_Housing Needs Assessment _ Bowen Report Prepared For City of Asheville Community and Economic Development Department 70 Court Plaza, 5th Floor Asheville, North Carolina 28802 Effective Date August 26, 2019 Revised: September 17, 2019 Job Reference Number 19-346 (Patrick Bowen) 155 E. Columbus Street, Suite 220 Pickerington, Ohio 43147 Phone: (614) 833-9300 Bowennational.com Housing Needs Update Buncombe County, North Carolina Bowen National Research 155 E. Columbus Street, Suite 220 Pickerington, Ohio 43147 (614) 833-9300 September 17, 2019 Mr. Paul D’Angelo City of Asheville Community and Economic Development Department 70 Court Plaza, 5th Floor Asheville, North Carolina 28802 Re: Buncombe County, North Carolina Housing Needs Update (Final Draft) Dear Mr. D’Angelo: Bowen National Research is pleased to provide you with the final draft of the Housing Needs report of Buncombe County, North Carolina that we completed on your behalf. This draft is a reduced scope from the original regional housing study we completed in 2014 and incorporates revisions to our August 26, 2019 draft that you requested. This includes an Executive Summary that you asked to be added. This update includes key demographic characteristics and trends (including projections through 2023), a telephone survey of over 100 multifamily apartments, a sample survey of more than 100 non-conventional and vacation rentals, nine years of for-sale housing activity and an inventory of the available for-sale housing stock, identification of housing product in the development pipeline (under construction and planned), and housing gap estimates for rental and for-sale housing at various affordability levels. We provided several comparisons of the housing market conditions of 2014 with the latest 2019 housing supply that illustrate key changes in both the rental and for-sale housing markets that we believe you will find interesting. We did not include any of the raw data collected and used in this analysis, but we can provide such data upon request. We have enjoyed working on this project. Respectfully, Patrick M. Bowen Enc: Executive Summary- 1 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The purpose of this report is to assess the Buncombe County housing market through an evaluation of key demographic characteristics and trends along with an inventory and analysis of the most common housing alternatives offered in the county. Additionally, we compare key metrics from our 2014 analysis of the area with the most current data to illustrate changes and trends in the market. We conclude the report by conducting a housing gap analysis for rental and for-sale housing at various affordability levels. This Executive Summary considers key findings from our analysis. Demographics Overall Population and Household Demographic Trends have been Positive Since 2010 and are Projected to Experience Notable Growth through at Least 2023 - Buncombe County experienced significant overall population and household growth rates between 2010 and 2018, outpacing both the Asheville MSA and the state of North Carolina. Between 2018 and 2023, it is projected that the Buncombe County population will increase by 17,899 (6.7%) and the number of households will increase by 7,145 (6.4%). This rapid growth will continue to contribute to the ongoing demand for housing for the foreseeable future. Executive Summary- 2 Senior Households (Ages 65 and Older) are Projected to Experience the Greatest Growth in the County between 2018 and 2023 - While all household age segments are projected to grow between 2018 and 2023, it is expected that most of the growth will be among households with ages 65 to 74 and ages 75 and older. While this growth is primarily attributed to households aging in place, these projected growth trends indicate a likely growing need for senior-oriented housing within the county. However, with growth also expected among all age groups, the market demand for a variety of housing product types and designs will exist. While the Majority of Area Renter Households Earn Less Than $40,000 Annually and the Majority of Homeowner Households Earn $60,000 or More Annually, Most Growth through 2023 will Occur Among Moderate- to High-Income Households – In 2018, over half (56.4%) of renter households in Buncombe County had annual income below $40,000, while over half (51.9%) of owner-occupied households had income of $60,000 or greater. New renter household growth is projected to be among both moderate- (earning between $30,000 and $59,999) and high- (earning $60,000 and higher) income households between 2018 and 2023. During this same time period, owner household growth in the county will primarily be among homeowners with incomes of $50,000 and higher, though some notable growth will occur among homeowners earning below $20,000 a year. Executive Summary- 3 Substandard Housing Conditions and Households in Cost Burdened Housing Situations Remain a Significant Challenge Among Area Households - In Buncombe County, 2,718 (7.1%) renter households and 817 (1.2%) owner households are experiencing overcrowded housing situations. A total of 17,643 (46.1%) renter households are cost burdened (paying over 30% of their income towards housing costs) and 7,439 (19.4%) are severe cost burdened (paying over 50% of their income towards housing costs). As such, more than 3,500 households live in substandard housing conditions and nearly 18,000 renter households are paying disproportionately high shares of income towards their housing costs. These characteristics stress the importance of both affordability and quality/modernization of the local housing stock. Multifamily Rental Housing Supply While the Area’s Overall Occupancy Rate (95.3%) for Multifamily Rental Housing Stock has Declined Since 2014 (99.2%), Most Affordable Rental Properties Remain Full with Long Wait Lists - The 122 surveyed multifamily rental properties have a combined occupancy rate of 95.3%, down from the 99.2% occupancy rate from December of 2014. This is considered a healthy occupancy rate and indicates the overall market has a good balance of occupied and vacant units. Currently, a total of 719 vacant units were identified in the county. This is a significant increase from the 99 vacant units that were identified in late 2014. It appears the influx of new multifamily apartments has put the overall market into a better balance at this time. However, there remains limited availability for lower income households seeking affordable rental housing. Surveyed Multifamily Apartments – July 2019 December 2014 Project Type Projects Surveyed Total Units Vacant Units Occupancy Rate Occupancy Rate Market-rate 70 10,348 616 94.0% 98.8% Market-rate/Tax Credit 8 1,687 99 94.1% 100.0% Market-rate/Government-Subsidized 1 123 0 100.0% 100.0% Tax Credit 24 1,087 2 99.8% 100.0% Tax Credit/Government-Subsidized 7 511 0 100.0% 100.0% Government-Subsidized 12 1,392 2 99.9% 100.0% Total 122 15,148 719 95.3% 99.2% Executive Summary- 4 The Introduction of New Rental Product Over the Past Few Years has not Limited Rent Increases, as both Market-rate and Tax Credit Annual Rent Growth has Averaged Around 5.0% Since 2014 - While the market-rate rental vacancy rate has increased from 1.2% in 2014 to 6.0% in 2019 due to the introduction of thousands of new market-rate units, the overall median market- rate rent has increased at a relatively rapid rate of 5.4% annually. Although vacancies are much more limited among the Tax Credit supply, rents among this supply have increased at an annual rate of 4.8% over the past five years. There is Limited Availability and Long Wait Lists Among Government- Subsidized Projects and for Housing Choice Vouchers - A total of 20 multifamily properties were surveyed in the county that operate with a government subsidy. There were only two vacant units among the 1,831 total government-subsidized units surveyed. According to management at the surveyed subsidized projects, most of these properties have long wait lists. According to a representative with the Housing Authority of the City of Asheville, there are approximately 2,781 Housing Choice Voucher holders within the housing authority’s jurisdiction and 1,442 people currently on the waiting list for additional vouchers. These market metrics indicate a strong level of pent-up demand for rental housing serving the lowest income households in the market. Executive Summary- 5 Efforts Made by the Local Government to Encourage the Development of Affordable Housing have Increased the Number of Such Units, yet there Remains Pent-up Demand for Housing Serving Lower Income Households - As a result of local government efforts to support affordable rental housing, there have been several mixed-income projects developed in recent years that include a combination of both market-rate and Tax Credit apartments. Additionally, several projects are in the development pipeline (either under construction or planned for development) that will include mixed-income units. Of the 2,441 units either existing or in the development pipeline that are within mixed-income projects, 368 are income restricted. These 368 units represent 15.1% of the overall units offered at these projects. The income restrictions preserve these particular units for low- income households earning up to 80% of AMHI and are developed through such things as the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, the Housing Trust Fund, or the Asheville Affordable Housing Program. It is worth pointing out that over two-thirds of the affordable housing units at these projects were developed after 2014, illustrating the improved efforts to address rental affordability issues in the market. Despite these efforts, there are very few available units among the affordable rental housing supply and many projects have wait lists. For-Sale Housing For-Sale Housing Activity has Remained Steady Since 2013, While Median Home Prices Continue to Escalate - Home sales activity within the county has remained relatively steady since 2013, with the market experiencing an average sales pace around 3,300 to 3,600 homes annually over the past six years. Sales activity for 2019 is on pace for nearly 3,500 home sales, continuing the trend of stable sales activity recently experienced in the market. The county has experienced rising median sales prices over the past eight years. The current median home sales price of $315,000 represents a 10-year high. The positive trends among sales volume and sales prices are good indications of a healthy and stable for-sale housing market in Buncombe County. Executive Summary- 6 The Available Inventory of For-Sale Housing has Diminished Significantly Since 2014, with a Substantial Decrease Among Product Priced Under $200,000 - The 1,300 housing units currently available for purchase in the county is 434 fewer than there were in late 2014, representing a decrease of 25.0%. The available inventory of product priced under $200,000 has diminished to just 63 units, down from 460 homes at these price points in 2014. Demand for product priced between $100,000 and $199,999 remains rather strong, as evidenced by the average days on market of just 78 for such product. Meanwhile, higher priced product, generally at $400,000 or higher, has increased dramatically. Product at these higher price points now represents 56.6% of the available inventory (up from 35.6% in 2014). The significantly diminishing overall supply of available product has likely contributed to the continued increases in home prices. Moreover, with the lower priced (under $200,000) product virtually non-existent, lower income households generally earning below $60,000 have very limited home buying choices. Residential Development Pipeline With Approximately 3,800 Rental Housing Units Either Under Construction or Planned for the Market, the Area is at Some Risk of Having an Overbuilt Market – According to local planning departments, it is believed that approximately 3,800 multifamily apartments are currently under construction or in some stage of the planning process. It is believed that roughly 2,300 of these units will have rents of over $1,400 per month, with an additional 1,100 units priced between $900 and $1,399. Only about 450 units are in the pipeline that would be priced under $900, yet such units will serve a housing segment with pent-up demand. Given that the current overall market-rate vacancy rate has reached 6.0% and more than 2,000 units are expected to be added to the market-rate supply over the next 18 to 24 months, the market-rate rental housing segment may be reaching a point of saturation. Conversely, the pent-up demand for rental product priced under $900 should positively affect the absorption of such units in the development pipeline. Executive Summary- 7 Housing Gap Estimates Bowen National Research conducted housing gap analyses for rental and for-sale housing for the subject county that considered a variety of affordability and income levels. While All Affordability and Income Levels Demonstrate Housing Gaps for Rental Product, the Greatest Gaps are For Product Affordable to Households with the Lowest Incomes - While there is a housing gap deficit among each of the income segments, the largest is among the lowest income segment. Although most of the product in the development pipeline (either under construction or planned) falls within the $875 to $1,999 rent ranges, there still remains demand for housing at this price level. Based on these estimates, while a variety of product types by rent level can be supported, the greatest gaps appear to be for housing that serves lower income households and workforce households. Demand Component Rental Housing Gap Estimates AMHI <30% 30%-50% 51%-80% 81%-120% 121%+ Income <$20k $20k-$35k $36k-$55k $56k-$80k $81k+ Rent <$500 $500-$874 $875-$1,374 $1,375-$1,999 $2,000+ New Households (2018-2023) -658 -263 845 439 1,366 Balanced Market 576 436 407 58 55 Substandard Housing 787 306 183 55 31 Commuter Support 696 582 516 936 288 Step-Down Support 0 85 47 961 -1,093 Development Pipeline -277 -102 -968 -1,545 -496 Total Housing Gap 1,124 1,044 1,030 904 151 AMHI – Area Median Household Income Executive Summary- 8 The Housing Gaps for For-Sale Housing are Significant Among All Affordability and Income Levels, with the Greatest Gap Existing Among Product that Serves Moderate-Income Households - As shown in the owner housing gap analysis, the greatest housing gap is for product priced between $200,000 and $299,999, with a nearly equal housing gap for housing priced at $300,000 and higher. These particular gaps are primarily driven by the new household growth projected through 2023. While smaller in scale, there still remains a notable housing gap for product priced under $200,000. The demand for the lower priced project originates from a variety of sources, with a notable amount resulting from the lack of available product at this price range. Demand Component For-Sale Housing Gap Estimates AMHI <80% 81%-120% 121%+ Income <$55k $56k-$80k $81k+ Home Price <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000+ New Households (2018-2023) -242 1,620 3,696 Balanced Market 257 65 -508 Substandard Housing 189 56 32 Commuter Support 209 321 123 Step-Down Support 486 739 -739 Development Pipeline -54 -128 -377 Total Housing Gap 845 2,673 2,227 AMHI – Area Median Household Income 1 BUNCOMBE COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT A. INTRODUCTION The focus of this analysis is to assess the market characteristics of, and to determine the housing needs for, Buncombe County. To accomplish this task, Bowen National Research evaluated various socio-economic characteristics, inventoried and analyzed the housing supply (rental and owner/for-sale product), identified product in the development pipeline, and provided housing gap estimates to help identify the housing needs of the county. This report is an update to a 2014 Housing Needs Assessment of this market and includes some data points from that original analysis. B. COUNTY OVERVIEW Buncombe County is located within the western portion of North Carolina and serves as the region’s economic and cultural center. It encompasses a total of 656 square miles. Primary thoroughfares within the county include U.S. Highways 23, 25 and 74, and Interstate Highways 26, 40 and 240. Notable natural landmarks and public attractions include the Blue Ridge Parkway, the Pisgah National Forest, Biltmore Estate and the North Carolina Arboretum. In 2018, the county had a total population of 266,322 (7th largest in the state). Asheville, with a 2018 population of 92,452, is the largest community in the county and the 12th largest city in the state. Additional details regarding demographics and housing, and other pertinent research and findings are included on the following pages. 2 C. DEMOGRAPHICS This section of the report evaluates key demographic characteristics for Buncombe County. Through this analysis, unfolding trends and unique conditions are revealed regarding populations and households residing in the county. Demographic comparisons provide insights into the human composition of housing markets. This section is comprised of three major parts: population characteristics, household characteristics, and income data. Population characteristics describe the qualities of individual people, while household characteristics describe the qualities of people living together in one residence. It is important to note that 2000 and 2010 demographics are based on U.S. Census data (actual count), while 2018 and 2023 data are based on calculated projections provided by ESRI, a nationally recognized demography firm, and the 2013-2017 American Community Survey. The accuracy of these projections depends on the realization of certain assumptions:  Economic projections made by secondary sources materialize;  Governmental policies with respect to residential development remain consistent;  Availability of financing for residential development (i.e. mortgages, commercial loans, subsidies, Tax Credits, etc.) remains consistent;  Sufficient housing and infrastructure are provided to support projected population and household growth; Significant unforeseen changes or fluctuations among any of the preceding assumptions could have an impact on demographic projections. Population and household data for selected years within Buncombe County are compared with the broader Asheville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and the state of North Carolina in the following table: Buncombe County Asheville MSA North Carolina Population Households Population Households Population Households 2000 Census 206,366 85,791 369,163 154,283 8,049,315 3,131,018 2010 Census 238,384 100,439 424,850 179,909 9,535,490 3,745,159 Change 2000-2010 32,018 14,648 55,687 25,626 1,486,175 614,141 Percent Change 2000-2010 15.5% 17.1% 15.1% 16.6% 18.5% 19.6% 2018 Estimated 266,322 111,165 469,781 197,562 10,455,567 4,087,415 Change 2010-2018 27,938 10,726 44,931 17,653 920,077 342,256 Percent Change 2010-2018 11.7% 10.7% 10.6% 9.8% 9.6% 9.1% 2023 Projected 284,221 118,310 499,606 209,698 11,061,161 4,317,051 Change 2018-2023 17,899 7,145 29,825 12,136 605,594 229,636 Percent Change 2018-2023 6.7% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1% 5.8% 5.6% Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research 3 Buncombe County experienced significant overall population and household growth rates between 2010 and 2018, outpacing both the Asheville MSA and the state of North Carolina. Between 2018 and 2023, it is projected that the Buncombe County population will increase by 17,899 (6.7%) and the number of households will increase by 7,145 (6.4%). The percent of projected growth for both population and households are expected to be greater than the MSA and state. This rapid growth will continue to contribute to the ongoing demand for housing for the foreseeable future. Household heads by age cohorts for selected years are shown in the following table: Household Heads by Age <25 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75+ Buncombe County 2010 4,459 (4.4%) 14,981 (14.9%) 17,170 (17.1%) 19,582 (19.5%) 19,554 (19.5%) 12,804 (12.7%) 11,890 (11.8%) 2018 4,466 (4.0%) 15,651 (14.1%) 17,626 (15.9%) 18,889 (17.0%) 21,871 (19.7%) 18,509 (16.7%) 14,153 (12.7%) 2023 4,639 (3.9%) 15,825 (13.4%) 18,552 (15.7%) 18,944 (16.0%) 21,873 (18.5%) 21,205 (17.9%) 17,272 (14.6%) Change 2018-2023 173 (3.9%) 174 (1.1%) 926 (5.3%) 55 (0.3%) 2 (0.0%) 2,696 (14.6%) 3,119 (22.0%) North Carolina 2010 192,967 (5.2%) 588,691 (15.7%) 712,157 (19.0%) 771,239 (20.6%) 673,803 (18.0%) 443,535 (11.8%) 362,762 (9.7%) 2018 187,547 (4.6%) 640,341 (15.7%) 696,488 (17.0%) 747,708 (18.3%) 772,560 (18.9%) 618,322 (15.1%) 424,449 (10.4%) 2023 192,122 (4.5%) 661,029 (15.3%) 735,426 (17.0%) 729,219 (16.9%) 778,971 (18.0%) 702,384 (16.3%) 517,900 (12.0%) Change 2018-2023 4,575 (2.4%) 20,688 (3.2%) 38,938 (5.6%) -18,489 (-2.5%) 6,411 (0.8%) 84,062 (13.6%) 93,451 (22.0%) Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research 4 In 2018, it was estimated that the largest share (19.7%) of households by age in Buncombe County was among the 55 to 64 age cohort. The distribution of households by age among all other age groups within the county is relatively balanced above the age of 24. While all household age segments are projected to grow between 2018 and 2023, it is expected that most of the growth will be among household ages 65 to 74 and age 75 and older. While this growth is attributed to households aging in place, these projected growth trends indicate a likely growing need for senior-oriented housing within the county. However, with growth also expected among all age groups, the market demand for a variety of product types and designs will exist. 5 Renter households by income for selected years are shown below: Renter Households by Income <$10,000 $10,000 - $19,999 $20,000 - $29,999 $30,000 - $39,999 $40,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $59,999 $60,000 - $99,999 $100,000+ Buncombe County 2010 4,853 (14.1%) 7,792 (22.6%) 6,564 (19.1%) 4,331 (12.6%) 3,341 (9.7%) 2,339 (6.8%) 3,883 (11.3%) 1,333 (3.9%) 2018 3,692 (8.9%) 8,057 (19.5%) 6,169 (14.9%) 5,438 (13.1%) 5,243 (12.7%) 3,011 (7.3%) 6,473 (15.6%) 3,322 (8.0%) 2023 3,198 (7.4%) 7,893 (18.3%) 5,840 (13.5%) 5,570 (12.9%) 6,009 (13.9%) 3,038 (7.0%) 7,289 (16.9%) 4,299 (10.0%) Change 2018-2023 -494 (-13.4%) -164 (-2.0%) -329 (-5.3%) 132 (2.4%) 765 (14.6%) 26 (0.9%) 816 (12.6%) 977 (29.4%) North Carolina 2010 195,723 (15.7%) 268,627 (21.5%) 209,386 (16.8%) 164,802 (13.2%) 128,213 (10.3%) 77,749 (6.2%) 154,325 (12.4%) 48,430 (3.9%) 2018 180,236 (12.3%) 259,703 (17.7%) 215,938 (14.7%) 186,030 (12.7%) 157,384 (10.7%) 108,406 (7.4%) 245,739 (16.8%) 113,455 (7.7%) 2023 163,917 (10.9%) 242,546 (16.2%) 204,555 (13.6%) 181,648 (12.1%) 164,150 (10.9%) 116,752 (7.8%) 280,098 (18.7%) 146,889 (9.8%) Change 2018-2023 -16,318 (-9.1%) -17,158 (-6.6%) -11,383 (-5.3%) -4,383 (-2.4%) 6,766 (4.3%) 8,346 (7.7%) 34,359 (14.0%) 33,434 (29.5%) Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National The distribution of owner households by income is included below: Owner Households by Income <$10,000 $10,000 - $19,999 $20,000 - $29,999 $30,000 - $39,999 $40,000 - $49,999 $50,000 - $59,999 $60,000 - $99,999 $100,000+ Buncombe County 2010 3,408 (5.2%) 6,601 (10.0%) 8,067 (12.2%) 7,463 (11.3%) 7,458 (11.3%) 6,971 (10.6%) 14,883 (22.5%) 11,153 (16.9%) 2018 2,436 (3.5%) 5,928 (8.5%) 5,735 (8.2%) 6,133 (8.8%) 6,410 (9.2%) 6,905 (9.9%) 18,401 (26.4%) 17,811 (25.5%) 2023 2,470 (3.3%) 6,367 (8.5%) 5,606 (7.5%) 5,927 (7.9%) 6,194 (8.2%) 7,263 (9.7%) 20,996 (27.9%) 20,352 (27.1%) Change 2018-2023 34 (1.4%) 439 (7.4%) -129 (-2.2%) -206 (-3.4%) -215 (-3.4%) 359 (5.2%) 2,595 (14.1%) 2,541 (14.3%) North Carolina 2010 132,072 (5.3%) 229,311 (9.2%) 255,992 (10.2%) 264,204 (10.6%) 246,306 (9.9%) 235,841 (9.4%) 610,090 (24.4%) 524,083 (21.0%) 2018 106,219 (4.1%) 187,667 (7.2%) 214,174 (8.2%) 231,524 (8.8%) 222,681 (8.5%) 232,889 (8.9%) 677,425 (25.9%) 747,945 (28.5%) 2023 109,029 (3.9%) 194,106 (6.9%) 219,003 (7.8%) 237,048 (8.4%) 235,831 (8.4%) 248,033 (8.8%) 742,500 (26.4%) 830,946 (29.5%) Change 2018-2023 2,809 (2.6%) 6,440 (3.4%) 4,829 (2.3%) 5,525 (2.4%) 13,150 (5.9%) 15,144 (6.5%) 65,075 (9.6%) 83,001 (11.1%) Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research 6 The largest share (19.5%) of renter households in Buncombe County in 2018 was estimated to be among households with incomes between $10,000 and $19,999, which is similar to the state average. Meanwhile, the largest share (26.4%) of owner- occupied households at this same time will be among those with incomes between $60,000 and $99,999, which is near the state share of 25.9%. New renter household growth is projected to be among both moderate (earning between $30,000 and $59,999) and high (earning $60,000 and higher) income households between 2018 and 2023. During this same time period, owner household growth in the county will primarily be among homeowners with incomes of $50,000 and higher, though some notable growth will occur among homeowners earning below $20,000 a year. The projected growth among lower income households, particularly among home owners is likely influenced by the large number of area seniors reaching retirement age and experiencing declines in income. While the large amount of renter growth is expected to occur among households that can generally afford market-rate rents, the large share (39.2%) of renter households earning below $30,000 stresses the importance of having product such as Tax Credit and government-subsidized housing to serve such households in the market. The following graph compares households by income and tenure for 2018: 7 The following graphs illustrate the projected household growth by income and tenure from 2018 to 2023. 8 Overcrowded housing is considered a housing unit with 1.01 or more persons per room, while severe overcrowded housing is considered a unit with 1.51 or more persons per room. The following table illustrates the overcrowded households by tenure for Buncombe County and North Carolina. Overcrowded Severe Overcrowded Renter Owner Renter Owner County Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Buncombe County 2,718 7.1% 817 1.2% 2,109 5.5% 240 0.4% North Carolina 59,922 4.4% 31,649 1.3% 19,513 1.4% 7,250 0.3% Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey In Buncombe County, 2,718 (7.1%) renter households and 817 (1.2%) owner households are experiencing overcrowded housing situations. The shares of such households within North Carolina are 4.4% for renters and 1.3% for homeowners. Severe overcrowded housing in the county totals 2,109 (5.5%) for renters and 240 (0.4%) for owners. While the shares of overcrowded and severe overcrowded homeowners in Buncombe County are similar to the state averages, such overcrowded and severe overcrowded households are much more pronounced among renters in the county. As such, substandard housing conditions associated with overcrowding remains a significant challenge for county renters. It is believed that the challenges associated with affordability and availability are contributing to the overcrowded housing in the county. 9 Evaluating the share of income that a household pays towards housing costs is an important factor to consider when evaluating housing needs. Cost burdened households are those paying over 30% of their income towards housing costs, while severe cost burdened households are those paying over 50% of their income towards housing costs. The following table illustrates the cost burdened and severe cost burdened households for the county and the state. Cost Burdened Severe Cost Burdened Renter Owner Renter Owner County Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Buncombe County 17,643 46.1% 14,310 21.3% 7,439 19.4% 5,283 7.9% North Carolina 600,819 44.3% 538,137 21.4% 292,735 21.6% 213,458 8.5% Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey Among Buncombe County’s renter households in 2018, a total of 17,643 (46.1%) are cost burdened and 7,439 (19.4%) are severe cost burdened. The shares of cost burdened and severe cost burdened renter households in the county are comparable to state averages. Among owner households in the county, a total of 14,310 (21.3%) are cost burdened while 5,283 (7.9%) are severe cost burdened. These ratios are also very similar to state averages. Based on this analysis, while the shares of households paying a disproportionately high share of their income toward housing costs within Buncombe County are similar to state shares, several thousands of renters and homeowners are dealing with housing affordability challenges. 10 The graphs below illustrate the shares of cost burdened and severe cost burdened households by tenure for Buncombe County and the state of North Carolina. 11 D. HOUSING SUPPLY This housing supply analysis considers both rental and owner for-sale housing. Understanding the historical trends, market performance, characteristics, composition, and current housing choices provides critical information as to current market conditions and future housing potential. The housing data presented and analyzed in this section includes primary data collected directly by Bowen National Research and from secondary data sources including American Community Survey (ACS), U.S. Census housing information and data provided by various government entities and real estate professionals. While there are a variety of housing alternatives offered in Buncombe County, we focused our analysis on the most common options. The housing structures included in this analysis are:  Rental Housing – Multifamily rentals that generally include 20 or more units were inventoried and surveyed. Additionally, rentals with three or fewer units, which were classified as non-conventional rentals, were identified and surveyed. Other rentals such as vacation rentals were also considered in this analysis.  Owner For-Sale Housing – We identified attached and detached for-sale housing, which may be part of a planned development or community, as well as attached multifamily housing such as condominiums. This analysis includes Bowen National Research’s telephone survey of area rental alternatives and an inventory of owner for-sale housing data (both historical sales and available housing alternatives) obtained from secondary data sources (Multiple Listing Service, REALTOR.com, and other on-line sources). Finally, we contacted local building and planning departments to determine if any residential units of notable scale were currently planned or under review by the local government. Any such units were considered in the housing gap/needs estimates included later in this section. a. Rental Housing Multifamily Rental Housing We identified and personally surveyed 122 multifamily housing projects containing a total of 15,148 units within the county. This survey was conducted to establish the overall strength of the rental market and to identify trends in the multifamily rental market. Managers and leasing agents for each project were surveyed to collect a variety of property information including vacancies, rental rates, design characteristics, amenities, utility responsibility, and other features. Projects were also rated based on quality and upkeep (based on our previous on- site evaluations of this market), and each was mapped as part of this survey. 12 The following table illustrates the distribution of surveyed multifamily rental housing supply by product/program type. It also includes a comparison of overall occupancy rates for July of 2019 with December of 2014: Surveyed Multifamily Apartments – July 2019 December 2014 Project Type Projects Surveyed Total Units Vacant Units Occupancy Rate Occupancy Rate Market-rate 70 10,348 616 94.0% 98.8% Market-rate/Tax Credit 8 1,687 99 94.1% 100.0% Market-rate/Government-Subsidized 1 123 0 100.0% 100.0% Tax Credit 24 1,087 2 99.8% 100.0% Tax Credit/Government-Subsidized 7 511 0 100.0% 100.0% Government-Subsidized 12 1,392 2 99.9% 100.0% Total 122 15,148 719 95.3% 99.2% As the preceding table illustrates, these multifamily rentals have a combined occupancy rate of 95.3%, down from the 99.2% occupancy rate from December of 2014. This is considered a healthy occupancy rate and indicates the overall market has a good balance of occupied and vacant units. Currently, a total of 719 vacant units were identified in the county. This is a significant increase from the 99 vacant units that were identified in late 2014. It appears the influx of new multifamily apartments has put the overall market into a better balance at this time. However, as evidenced by the high occupancy rates among the affordable (Tax Credit and government-subsidized) rental inventory, there remains limited availability for lower income households seeking such housing. 13 The following tables summarize the breakdown of non-subsidized units surveyed by program type and bedroom/bathroom configuration within the county. Market-rate Multifamily Apartments – July 2019 Bedroom Baths Units Share Vacancy % Vacant Median Collected Rent 12/2014 Median Collected Rent Change in Rents 2014 to 2019 Average Annual Change in Rents Studio 1.0 150 1.3% 1 0.7% $825 $667 23.7% 4.7% One-Bedroom 1.0 3,612 30.6% 196 5.4% $1,054 $830 27.0% 5.4% One-Bedroom 2.0 43 0.4% 1 2.3% $2,155 N/A N/A N/A Two-Bedroom 1.0 1,080 9.1% 51 4.7% $1,100 $800 37.5% 7.5% Two-Bedroom 1.5 539 4.6% 7 1.3% $1,068 $915 16.7% 3.3% Two-Bedroom 2.0 4,688 39.7% 337 7.2% $1,308 $1,022 28.0% 5.6% Two-Bedroom 2.5 219 1.9% 10 4.6% $1,310 $1,031 27.1% 5.4% Three-Bedroom 1.0 88 0.7% 1 1.1% $889 $739 20.3% 4.1% Three-Bedroom 1.5 163 1.4% 0 0.0% $1,245 $1,000 24.5% 4.9% Three-Bedroom 2.0 1,123 9.5% 102 9.1% $1,490 $1,242 20.0% 4.0% Three-Bedroom 2.5 76 0.6% 1 1.3% $1,600 $1,303 22.8% 4.6% Three-Bedroom 3.0 4 0.0% 0 0.0% $1,400 $1,100 27.3% 5.5% Three-Bedroom 3.5 1 0.0% 0 0.0% $6,928 N/A N/A N/A Four-Bedroom 1.5 20 0.2% 0 0.0% $1,000 $789 26.7% 5.3% Four-Bedroom 2.0 8 0.1% 0 0.0% $1,560 $1,005 55.2% 11.0% Total Market-rate 11,814 100.0%707 6.0%- - - 5.4% N/A – Not Available Tax Credit Multifamily Apartments - July 2019 Bedroom Baths Units Share Vacancy % Vacant Median Collected Rent 12/2014 Median Collected Rent Change in Rents 2014 to 2019 Average Annual Change in Rents Studio 1.0 19 1.3% 0 0.0% $308 $222 38.7% 7.7% One-Bedroom 1.0 606 40.3% 7 1.2% $555 $467 18.8% 3.8% Two-Bedroom 1.0 418 27.8% 0 0.0% $590 $531 11.1% 2.2% Two-Bedroom 1.5 34 2.3% 0 0.0% $655 N/A N/A N/A Two-Bedroom 2.0 186 12.4% 3 1.6% $694 $388 78.9% 15.8% Three-Bedroom 1.0 67 4.5% 0 0.0% $741 $658 12.6% 2.5% Three-Bedroom 2.0 150 10.0% 0 0.0% $689 $580 18.8% 3.8% Four-Bedroom 1.5 21 1.4% 0 0.0% $969 $706 37.3% 7.5% Four-Bedroom 2.0 2 0.1% 0 0.0% $578 $335 72.5% 14.5% Total Tax Credit 1,503 100.0%10 0.7%- - - 4.8% N/A – Not Available The overall vacancy rate among surveyed market-rate product is currently 6.0%, which is notably higher than the 1.2% vacancy rate for this product type in 2014. While the vacancy rate has increased over the past five years, the overall median market-rate rent has increased at a relatively rapid rate of 5.4% annually. Vacancies are much more limited among the Tax Credit supply, with just 10 vacant units identified in the county. The resulting Tax Credit vacancy rate of 0.7% is higher than but comparable to the 0.0% vacancy rate for this same product type in 2014. The limited availability and introduction of newer Tax Credit units are likely contributing factors to the rapidly increasing Tax Credit rents, which experienced a 4.8% annual rent increase over the past five years. 14 The following graphs illustrate the overall vacancy rates (2014 vs. 2019) and the average annual rent growth that occurred between 2014 and 2019: 15 A total of 20 multifamily properties were surveyed in the county that operate with a government subsidy. The table below summarizes the distribution of subsidized projects (both with and without Tax Credits) in Buncombe County. Subsidized Tax Credit Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant One-Bedroom 1.0 165 51.4% 0 0.0% Two-Bedroom 1.0 118 36.8% 0 0.0% Two-Bedroom 1.5 11 3.4% 0 0.0% Three-Bedroom 1.0 16 5.0% 0 0.0% Four-Bedroom 1.5 11 3.4% 0 0.0% Total Subsidized Tax Credit 321 100.0%0 0.0% Government-Subsidized Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant Studio 1.0 90 6.0% 0 0.0% One-Bedroom 1.0 579 38.3% 0 0.0% Two-Bedroom 1.0 464 30.7% 2 0.4% Two-Bedroom 1.5 49 3.2% 0 0.0% Three-Bedroom 1.0 238 15.8% 0 0.0% Three-Bedroom 1.5 24 1.6% 0 0.0% Four-Bedroom 1.0 20 1.3% 0 0.0% Four-Bedroom 1.5 36 2.4% 0 0.0% Five-Bedroom 1.5 10 0.7% 0 0.0% Total Subsidized 1,510 100.0%2 0.1% The subsidized Tax Credit units are 100.0% occupied and the government- subsidized units are 99.9% occupied, with a total of only two vacant units among the overall total of 1,831. According to management at the surveyed subsidized projects, most of these properties have long wait lists. As such, there continues to be clear pent-up demand for multifamily rental housing product for very low- income households. Another resource residents can use that enables them to reasonably afford rental housing is through Housing Choice Vouchers, which allows residents to pay 30% of their income towards housing. These vouchers are issued by the local housing authority. According to a representative with the Housing Authority of the City of Asheville, there are approximately 2,781 Housing Choice Voucher holders within the housing authority’s jurisdiction and 1,442 people currently on the waiting list for additional vouchers. The waiting list is open. Annual turnover is estimated at 41 households, indicating minimal turnover and long waits for households seeking vouchers. This reflects the continuing need for Housing Choice Voucher assistance. 16 The following is a distribution of multifamily rental projects (market-rate, Tax Credit and government-subsidized) and units surveyed by year built for Buncombe County: Year Built Projects Units Vacancy Rate Before 1970 21 1,565 0.9% 1970 to 1979 14 2,241 0.8% 1980 to 1989 16 1,706 0.7% 1990 to 1999 10 1,067 4.6% 2000 to 2009 24 2,511 3.1% 2010 to 2014 9 1,272 2.2% 2015 9 1,543 4.3% 2016 2 288 5.2% 2017 9 1,633 7.8% 2018 7 1,282 24.3% 2019* 1 40 0.0% *As of July A substantial amount of new rental product has been added to the county over the past several years. Since 2015, a total of at least 28 projects with 4,786 units have been introduced into the Buncombe County market. As the preceding table illustrates, most development periods or years have relatively low vacancy rates. However, among the seven properties opening in 2018, the overall occupancy rate is 24.3%, reflective of several projects still in their initial lease-up phase. Based on information from management at some of the area’s newest properties, typical absorption rates are around 14 (affordable/income restricted) to 18 (market-rate) units per month. These are relatively fast monthly absorption rates and good indications of a strong rental housing market. 17 The local government has made efforts to encourage the development of affordable housing in the market. As a result of such efforts, there have been several mixed- income projects developed in recent years that include a combination of both market-rate and Tax Credit apartments, serving both market-rate renters and low- income renters (generally earning up to 80% of Area Median Household Income). Additionally, several projects are in the development pipeline (either under construction or planned for development) that will include mixed-income units. The table below summarizes the number of market-rate and affordable (income- restricted) units within mixed-income properties in the market. Mixed-Income Apartments Type Market-Rate Units Income-Restricted Units Total Units Established 1,461 226 1,687 Planned/Under Construction 612 142 754 Total 2,073 368 2,441 Of the 2,441 units either existing or in the development pipeline that are within mixed-income projects, 368 are income restricted. These 368 units represent 15.1% of the overall units offered at these projects. The income restrictions preserve these particular units for low-income households earning up to 80% of AMHI and are developed through such things as the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, the Housing Trust Fund, or the Asheville Affordable Housing Program. It is worth pointing out that over two-thirds of the affordable housing units at these projects were developed after 2014, illustrating the improved efforts to address rental affordability issues in the market. In addition to the mixed-income projects offering units affordable to lower income households, several projects have been built or are planned for development that operate exclusively with income and rent restrictions (they include no market-rate units). We identified and surveyed 24 apartment properties operating under the programmatic requirements of the LIHTC program. These projects generally serve up to 60% or 80% of AMHI. There are only two vacant units among these properties, resulting in a very high overall occupancy rate of 99.8%. According to property managers at these properties, most LIHTC projects operate with wait lists. As such, there is pent-up demand for affordable rental housing in the market. Since 2014, four properties operating exclusively under the LIHTC program have been built in the market. These projects include a total of 315 units, of which 210 (66.7%) are general occupancy and 105 (33.3%) are senior restricted. These 315 newer LIHTC units represent 29.0% of the units operating exclusively under the LIHTC program. This is a notable increase in the affordable rental housing stock. Despite these recent additions in the affordable rental housing supply, limited availability among such rentals still exists. 18 Non-Conventional Rental Housing Buncombe County has a large number of non-conventional rentals which can come in the form of detached single-family homes, duplexes, units over storefronts, mobile homes, etc. As a result, we have conducted a sample survey of non- conventional rentals within the county. Overall, a total of 118 individual units were identified and inventoried. While this does not include all non-conventional rentals in the market, we believe these properties are representative of the typical non-conventional rental housing alternatives in the market. The following table aggregates the 118 vacant non-conventional rental units surveyed in Buncombe County by bedroom type. Surveyed Non-Conventional Rental Supply August 2019 November 2014 Bedroom Vacant Units Rent Range Median Rent Median Rent Per-Square-Foot Median Rent Median Rent Per-Square-Foot Studio 4 $1,306 - $1,441 $1,361 $2.58 - - One-Bedroom 17 $895 - $1,975 $1,200 $1.82 $575 $0.89 Two-Bedroom 35 $895 - $3,000 $1,575 $1.57 $950 $1.01 Three-Bedroom 44 $1,290 - $3,500 $1,700 $1.16 $1,225 $0.87 Four-Bedroom+ 18 $475 - $5,000 $2,248 $1.16 $1,750 $0.85 Total 118 As the preceding table illustrates, the rents for non-conventional rentals identified range from $475 to $5,000. The median rent per-square-foot by bedroom type ranges from $1.16 to $2.58, up from the rents of $0.85 to $1.01 per-square-foot from 2014. It needs to be acknowledged that the non-conventional rentals included in the current inventory are different than those of 2014. Regardless, this inventory of available non-conventional rentals illustrates that most such rentals have rents of $1,200 or more per month and may be difficult for many of the area households to afford. The rental rates of non-conventional rentals are generally comparable to most market-rate multifamily apartments surveyed in the county. However, when utilities are considered, as most non-conventional rentals require tenants to pay all utilities, the rental housing costs of non-conventional rentals are generally higher than multifamily apartments. When also considering that a much larger share of the non-conventional product was built prior to 1980 and their amenity packages are relatively limited, it would appear the non-conventional rentals represent less of a value than most multifamily apartments in the market. However, given the relatively limited number of vacant units among the more affordable multifamily apartments, many low-income households are likely forced to choose from the non-conventional housing alternatives. The map on the following page illustrates the location of non-conventional rentals identified as available in the market. 19 20 Vacation Rental Housing Buncombe County has a large number of vacation rentals which are typically in the form of cabins, detached single-family homes, condominiums, etc. As a result, we have conducted a sample survey of vacation rentals within the county. Overall, a total of 56 individual units were identified and surveyed. While this does not include all vacation rentals in the market, we believe these properties are representative of the typical vacation rental housing alternatives in the market. The following table aggregates the 56 vacant/available vacation rental units surveyed in the county by bedroom type. The current (August 2019) data is compared with data collected during the original (November 2014) study of the county. It should be noted that while most rents are charged on a daily or weekly basis, rents are shown and analyzed on a monthly basis. Surveyed Vacation Rental Supply August 2019 November 2014 Bedroom Vacant Units Rent Range Median Rent Rent Range Median Rent One-Bedroom 3 $1,764 - $3,924 $1,825 $1,620 - $28,500 $4,575 Two-Bedroom 39 $1,734 - $7,422 $3,255 $2,400 - $12,720 $5,250 Three-Bedroom 13 $2,342 - $8,425 $3,954 $3,750 - $16,260 $6,300 Four-Bedroom+ 1 $2,920 - $2,920 $2,920 $4,320 - $75,705 $10,965 Total 56 As the preceding table illustrates, the rents for inventoried vacation rentals range from $1,825 to $3,954. These median rents are much lower than the median rents from 2014. While the median rents have decreased, they still are well above most of the multifamily rental alternatives surveyed in the market. As a result, vacation rentals are generally not affordable to most households seeking rental housing on a long-term basis. However, due to this rent differential, such housing may appeal to owners of traditional, long-term rentals who may want to convert their housing to vacation rentals and thereby reduce the inventory of rental stock available to people seeking long-term rentals in the area. This posses a risk to have some long- term rentals removed from the market. Note: we were unable to map any of the vacation rentals as their addresses were not available. 21 b. Owner For-Sale Housing Bowen National Research, through a review of the Multiple Listing Service information for Buncombe County, identified both historical (sold since 2010) for- sale residential data and currently available for-sale housing stock. The following table summarizes the available and recently sold (since January 2010) housing stock for Buncombe County. Sold/Currently Available For-Sale Housing Supply – Buncombe County Status Homes Median Price Sold* 29,970 $245,000 Available 1,300 $438,471 Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty *Sales from Jan. 1, 2010 to Jul. 31, 2019 There were 29,970 homes sold since 2010 and 1,300 homes currently available in Buncombe County. Historical Sales The following table includes a summary of annual for-sale residential transactions that occurred within Buncombe County since 2010. It should be noted that the 2019 sales cover only the first seven months of the year. Owner For-Sale Housing by Year Sold Year Units Sold Median Price Sold Number Change Price Change 2010 2,174 - $199,900 - 2011 2,262 4.0% $188,000 -6.0% 2012 2,716 20.1% $196,000 4.3% 2013 3,365 23.9% $206,608 5.4% 2014 3,573 6.2% $215,000 4.1% 2015 3,354 -6.1% $240,000 11.6% 2016 3,563 6.2% $265,000 10.4% 2017 3,561 -0.1% $285,000 7.5% 2018 3,365 -5.5% $303,000 6.3% 2019* 2,037 - $315,000 4.0% Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty *Sales as of July 31, 2019 Home sales activity within the county has remained relatively steady since 2013, experiencing an average sales pace around 3,300 to 3,600 homes annually over the past six years. Sales activity for 2019 is on pace for nearly 3,500 home sales, continuing the trend of stable sales activity recently experienced in the market. The county has experienced rising median sales prices over the past eight years. The current median home sales price of $315,000 represents a 10-year high. The positive trends among sales volume and sales prices are good indications of a healthy and stable for-sale housing market in Buncombe County. 22 The following graphs illustrate the overall annual number of homes sold and median sales prices for Buncombe County since 2010 (2019 was excluded because only partial year data is available). 23 The distribution of homes recently sold by price for the county is summarized in the table below. Buncombe County Sales History by Price (Jan. 1, 2010 to Jul. 31, 2019) Sale Price Number Sold Percent of Supply Average Days on Market Up to $99,999 2,182 7.3% 130 $100,000 to $199,999 8,355 27.9% 113 $200,000 to $299,999 8,825 29.4% 94 $300,000 to $399,999 4,776 15.9% 100 $400,000 to $499,999 2,484 8.3% 107 $500,000+ 3,348 11.2% 159 Total 29,970 100.0% 111 Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty As the preceding table illustrates, home sales by price point within the county since 2010 were primarily concentrated among product priced between $200,000 and $299,999 (29.4%). Product priced between $100,000 and $199,999 has also been very active, with 27.9% of the product sold within this price range. The product within these two price ranges have been selling quickly, as evidenced by the fact that the average days on market (number of days a home is listed before it is sold) are 113 days or fewer. Interestingly, homes priced at $300,000 to $499,999 have also had a large volume of product sold at relatively rapid rates (generally around 100 days on market). In an effort to understand the changing home buying trends, we have compared historical sales of 2010 to 2014 with sales from 2015 to 2019 (through July) in the following table. Buncombe County Sales History by Price Sale Price (Jan. 1, 2010 to Dec. 31, 2014) (Jan. 1, 2015 to Jul. 31, 2019) Number Sold Percent of Supply Average Days on Market Number Sold Percent of Supply Average Days on Market Up to $99,999 1,623 11.5% 143 559 3.5% 89 $100,000 to $199,999 5,286 37.5% 141 3,069 19.3% 64 $200,000 to $299,999 3,550 25.2% 150 5,275 33.2% 56 $300,000 to $399,999 1,699 12.1% 162 3,077 19.4% 65 $400,000 to $499,999 832 5.9% 166 1,652 10.4% 77 $500,000+ 1,100 7.8% 258 2,248 14.2% 110 Total 14,090 100.0% 157 15,880 100.0% 70 Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty Home sales activity since 2015 has changed significantly from the preceding five- year period (2010 to 2014) in Buncombe County. Specifically, home sales of product priced $300,000 and higher have increased from 25.8% of all sales between 2010 and 2014 to 44.0% since 2015. 24 The graphs below illustrate the share of homes sold by price point for 2014 and 2019 and the average number of days on market by price for 2014 and 2019. As these graphs illustrate, the for-sale housing market has experienced a shift towards higher priced homes, yet the average number of days on market has decreased significantly over the past five years. 25 A map of the historical (2010 to 2019) home sales identified in the county is shown below: Available Supply The table below summarizes the distribution of available for-sale residential units by price point for Buncombe County. Buncombe County Available For-Sale Housing by Price List Price November 21, 2014 As of July 31, 2019 Number Available Percent of Supply Average Days on Market Number Available Percent of Supply Average Days on Market Up to $99,999 76 4.4% N/A 6 0.5% 176 $100,000 to $199,999 384 22.2% N/A 57 4.4% 78 $200,000 to $299,999 403 23.2% N/A 214 16.5% 88 $300,000 to $399,999 254 14.6% N/A 286 22.0% 95 $400,000 to $499,999 166 9.6% N/A 206 15.8% 124 $500,000+ 451 26.0% N/A 531 40.8% 169 Total 1,734 100.0% N/A 1,300 100.0% 128 Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty N/A – Not Available 26 The 1,300 housing units currently available for purchase in the county is 434 fewer than there were in late 2014, representing a decrease of 25.0%. The available inventory of product priced under $200,000 has diminished to just 63 units, down from 460 homes at these price points in 2014. Demand for product priced between $100,000 and $199,999 remains rather strong, as evidenced by the average days on market of just 78 for such product. Meanwhile, higher priced product, generally at $400,000 or higher, has increased dramatically. This price point now represents 56.6% of the available inventory (up from 35.6% in 2014). With a significantly diminishing overall supply of available product, the housing market’s limited supply has likely contributed to the continued increases in home prices. Moreover, with the lower priced (under $200,000) product virtually non-existent, lower income households generally earning below $60,000 have very limited choices. The distribution of available homes by year built for the county is summarized in the table below. Buncombe County Available For-Sale Housing by Year Built (As of July 31, 2019) Year Built Number Available Average Beds/Baths Average Square Feet Price Range Median List Price Median Price per Sq. Ft. Average Days on Market Before 1950 160 3/2.5 2,129 $89,900 - $3,995,000 $377,000 $247.42 111 1950 to 1959 88 2/2.0 1,805 $33,000 - $1,490,000 $354,000 $226.14 105 1960 to 1969 88 3/2.5 1,991 $110,000 - $1,395,000 $327,450 $193.19 95 1970 to 1979 80 3/2.75 2,361 $138,500 - $2,750,000 $384,000 $193.33 95 1980 to 1989 101 3/3.0 2,559 $79,500 - $1,990,000 $420,000 $187.97 106 1990 to 1999 157 3/3.5 3,126 $82,000 - $3,350,000 $469,900 $172.86 112 2000 to 2009 277 4/3.75 3,631 $110,000 - $10,750,000 $575,000 $191.03 144 2010 to present 349 3/3.0 2,362 $158,000 - $4,250,000 $439,900 $226.62 159 Total 1,300 3/3.0 2,648 $33,000 - $10,750,000 $438,471 $211.14 128 Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty 27 As shown in the preceding table, nearly one-half of the available for-sale housing product in the county was built in 2000 or later. These newer homes are generally priced well over $400,000, though even older product built prior to 1980 has a median asking price of more than $300,000. A map of the identified available for-sale housing stock is illustrated below: c. Planned & Proposed Residential Development In order to assess housing development potential, we evaluated recent residential building permit activity and identified residential projects in the development pipeline for Buncombe County. Understanding the number of residential units and the type of housing being considered for development in the county can assist in determining how these projects are expected to meet the housing needs of the area. 28 Multifamily Apartments Based on our interviews with local building and planning representatives, it was determined that there are multiple housing projects planned within Buncombe County. These planned developments, by location, are summarized as follows. Multifamily – Asheville City Limits Project Name & Address Type Units Developer Status/Details Hawthorne at Mills Gap 60 Mills Gap Road Asheville Market-rate & 10% Affordable 256 Hawthorne Residential Partners Under Construction: High-end, luxury development; One- thru three-bedrooms; Luxury finishes in units and “class A” property amenities; 10% of units will set aside as affordable; ECD spring 2020 Five Points Mixed Building 257 Broadway Street Asheville Market-rate 46 White Point Partners Under Construction: Site work is underway; Five-story building; Some affordable units are planned; Estimated rents $1,750 to $3,300; 4,700 sq. ft. commercial space; ECD fall 2019 Swannanoa Bend (FKA Beaucatcher Commons) 43 Simpson Street Asheville Affordable 30 Kirk Booth Real Estate Under Construction: All one-bedrooms for those earning below 60% AMHI; Funded by Housing Trust Funds; 40 units opened in Feb. 2019 and leased by April 2019; Rent is $ 619; No onsite amenities; Remaining 30 units ECD September 2019 River Mill Lofts 100 River Mill Drive Asheville Market-rate 134 Southeast Management Under Construction: 130 units opened in 2017, 134 units under construction; 40 one-bedrooms, 80 two-bedrooms, and 14 three-bedrooms; Current units renting from $1,150 to $1,875; ECD early 2020 ABCCM Transformation Village 53 Rocky Ridge Road Asheville Subsidized Transitional & Permanent Supportive Housing 152 Asheville Buncombe Community Christian Ministry (ABCCM) Under construction: For homeless women and children; Emergency shelter for short-term stay (33 short-term apartments with a total of 90 beds) and transitional housing units for women with recovery from abuse issues, job skills will be provided, and permanent supportive housing units; Community and health center White Oak Grove 275 and 281 Hazel Mill Road Asheville Market-rate & 10% Affordable 113 Berltex Real Estate Holdings, LLC Planned: Approved February 2019; 10% of the units (12) will meet the city’s standards for affordability at 80% AMHI for 10 years; Developer must provide bus passes for two years for residents who request one; Construction is to begin September 2019 Former Sears Site 3 S. Tunnel Road Asheville Mixed-Use Market-rate & 40% Affordable 204 Seritage Growth Properties Proposed: In council review; $45 million redevelopment project; Ten-story building; Studios, one-, two- and three-bedroom units; If built will have up to 10% of units affordable below 80% AMHI; 114,000 sq. ft. retail space with a ten screen, upscale theater, restaurants and a plaza. TBD – To be determined N/A – Not Available ECD – Estimated completion date TRC – Technical Review Committee BOA – Board of Adjustment 29 (Continued) Multifamily – Asheville City Limits Project Name & Address Type Units Developer Status/Details Hillard Apartments 338-360 Hilliard Avenue Asheville Market-rate & Affordable 86 Kassinger Development Group Planned: Approved; 31 market-rate units and 16 units for those earning below 80% AMHI, 18 units at 60% AMHI; Hope to begin construction in 2019 and complete by fall 2020 TBD 123 Haywood Street Asheville Market-rate 18 N/A Planned: Four-story building (3 residential stories) over one-story parking garage Lee Walker Heights 17 Wilbar Avenue Asheville Mixed-Use Tax Credit & Subsidized 212 Asheville Housing Authority & Mountain Housing Opportunities Planned: Demolition of public housing complex to be replaced by new construction; 116 for those at 60% AMHI, 96 units will be at 30% AMHI and have Project Based Rental Assistance through RAD Program; 11,000 square feet of commercial space to be constructed at 50 Wilbar Ave.; Hope to break ground in 2019 and ECD 2021 Lee Walker Heights Phase II 319 Biltmore Ave. Asheville Mixed-use Tax Credit & Subsidized 310 Asheville Housing Authority and Mountain Housing Opportunities Proposed: Phase II of Lee Walker Heights replacement housing project; Also, to include retail and commercial space. City owned property. Tribute Project-Scattered Sites FKA Ledford Site 72 Asheland Avenue, 185 Coxe Avenue, 5 Federal Alley Asheville Mixed-use Market-rate & Affordable 541 Tribute Companies Planned: Commercial space, office space and a 1,000-space parking deck; 541 units planned; Possibly 20% of units to be affordable at 80% AMHI; 973 parking spaces; Plan to begin construction early 2020; Initial TRC meeting date 6/1/2019 Collier Avenue Apartment 11 Collier Avenue Asheville Affordable 54 Colliers Avenue Properties Planned: A request for the review of a Level II site plan to develop 54 residential units in 53,680 square feet, five-story building: 54 live-work lofts and studio units. Plans not submitted. Beacham’s Curve Neighborhood 315 Haywood Road Asheville Market-rate 24 Big Jake Enterprises Planned: Three-phased project; Apartments will be part of Phase III of this mixed-use development and will consist of 24 units; Phases I and II consist of two mixed-use condo buildings with ten live/work units for sale; Construction of 18 one- bedrooms and six two-bedrooms to begin spring 2019 TBD 45 South French Broad Asheville Mixed-use Market-rate 22 Ball Family Planned: In TRC; 43,582 square foot, three-story commercial and residential expansion to an existing one-story commercial building Verde Vista Phase II 99999 Verde Vista Circle Asheville Market-rate & 10% Affordable 56 Pike Real Estate Development Planned: Six units affordable at 80% AMHI; Addition to an existing development with 257 units that opened in 2012 Create 72 Broadway 99999 Broadway Street, 67 Market Street, and 61 Market Street Asheville Mixed-use Affordable 6 BPR Properties and S&R Investment LTD Planned: In TRC: Nine-story, 184,000 square foot mixed-use building with 24 condos, 150 hotel rooms, retail and office space include six workforce apartments for artists earning 30% AMHI, renting for $500 monthly Roberson-Smokey Park Development 877 & 885 Smokey Park Highway Asheville Mixed-use Market-rate 20 Roberson Land Development Co, LLC Planned: In TRC Development Review for 20 residential units, 20,839 square feet of retail space and 4,145 square feet of medical facility in seven buildings TBD – To be determined N/A – Not Available ECD – Estimated completion date TRC – Technical Review Committee BOA – Board of Adjustment 30 (Continued) Multifamily – Asheville City Limits Project Name & Address Type Units Developer Status/Details Amaranth Apartments 1 Brookside Circle Asheville Tax Credit 70 Workforce Homestead Planned: In TRC Development review for a 70- unit affordable housing multifamily apartment complex; 52 units for families with incomes under 60% AMHI; 18 apartments set aside for households at or below 30% AMHI. This project will receive a $1.2 million Housing Trust Fund TBD 296 Short Michigan Avenue Asheville Permanent Supportive Housing 11 Homewood Bound Planned: Will rehabilitate five buildings with eight, one-bedroom and three, two-bedroom units; They will provide permanent supportive housing for people experiencing homelessness Sweet Grass Apartments 39 Bradley Branch Road Asheville Market-rate & 10% Affordable 255 Mtn-Comm, LLC Under Construction: Preliminary grading began May 2019; 26 units will be affordable for 15 years for earners below 80% AMHI TBD – To be determined N/A – Not Available ECD – Estimated completion date TRC – Technical Review Committee BOA – Board of Adjustment Multifamily – Buncombe County (Outside Asheville City Limits) Project Name & Address Type Units Developer Status/Details Enclave-Piney Mountain Apartments 85 Piney Mountain Drive Asheville (Buncombe County) Market-rate 200 McCall Capital Planned: Conditional use permit applied for March 2019 Reflection Pointe 812 New Leicester Highway Asheville (Buncombe County) Market-rate & Affordable 270 Southwood Realty Planned: BOA approved May 2019 for 10 three- story buildings and 30 detached garages, 473 parking spaces; Clubhouse and pool; 81 units will be affordable workforce housing for those earning below 80% AMHI Hawthorne at Haywood 1951 Old Haywood Asheville (Buncombe County) Market-rate 240 Foggin-Powel Properties/ Hawthorne Residential Partners Planned: BOA approved 2018 Asheville Heights 251 Charlotte Highway Asheville (Buncombe County) Market-rate 192 NTPP Investments, LLC Planned: BOA approved 2018; One- and two- bedroom apartments with 405 parking spaces Retreat at Arden Farms 539 Long Shoals Road Arden Market-rate 318 Tynes Development Planned: BOA approved; Rents proposed from $1,000-$1,600; Hope to break ground by fall 2019 Riverstone at Long Shoals 556 Long Shoals Road Arden Market-rate 96 Long Shoals Holdings Planned: Existing property of 256 one- thru three-bedrooms renting from $995 to $1,660; Have plans for a Phase II Villas at Avery Creek 260 Amethyst Circle Arden Market-rate 255 Universal Development Under Construction: One-bedroom garden units and two- and three-bedroom townhomes renting from $799 to $1,499; 109 units to be complete August 2019 and are all preleased, remaining units complete by June 2020 TBD – To be determined N/A – Not Available ECD – Estimated completion date TRC – Technical Review Committee BOA – Board of Adjustment 31 (Continued) Multifamily – Buncombe County (Outside Asheville City Limits) Project Name & Address Type Units Developer Status/Details East Haven 2244 U.S. 70 Swannanoa Tax Credit 95 Mountain Housing Opportunities Under Construction: Ground broken spring 2019; One- thru three-bedrooms; Targeting those earning below 30%, 50%, and 60% AMHI; 16 Home fund units, 19 units for the Integrated Supportive Housing Program; Proposed rents range from $257 to $697; Interior courtyard with playground, picnic area, garden space, elevators, community room, computer center, laundry facilities, fitness room; ECD summer 2020 Jasper Apartments 1944 U.S. Highway 70 Swannanoa Tax Credit 100 Workforce Homestead Planned: Applied for conditional use permit in April 2019; Targeting those earning below 60% AMHI; 22 one-bedrooms, 60 two-bedrooms, and 18 three-bedrooms in three-story buildings; Clubhouse, playground, and picnic pavilion Blue Ridge Crossing Garrison Branch Road adjacent to Monticello Road and U.S. 25/70 Weaverville Market-rate 176 828 North, LLC Under Construction: Preliminary plat approved; Infrastructure installation currently ongoing TBD 40 Doan Road Weaverville Market-rate 16 MS Properties of Weaverville LLC Planned: BOA approved 2018 with five years vested rights Riverside Stump Dump 135 Monticello Road Weaverville N/A 238 Crest Residential Planned: Had recent voluntary annexation and initial zoning for multifamily residential; Zoning density and acreage present will support approximately 238 units; In Plan Review 10 Newbridge Apartments 10 Newbridge Parkway Woodfin Market-rate 40 Hawthorne Management Under Construction: First 262 units completed and rented; One-, two-, and three-bedrooms renting from $950 to $1,935; Final 40 units ECD summer 2019 TBD – To be determined N/A – Not Available ECD – Estimated completion date TRC – Technical Review Committee BOA – Board of Adjustment Senior Facilities According to planning and building representatives, there is currently one senior living project planned and/or under construction within Buncombe County. This property is summarized in the table that follows. Project Name & Address Units Developer Status/Details Julian Woods Retirement Community 213 Long Shoals Road and 433 Overlook Road Ext. Asheville 130 Asheville Pentecostal Holiness Church, C&B Toothland of Overlook Ext LLC Planned: A request for the conditional zoning review of 130 dwelling units located in a three-story building located on 7.23 acres; Amenities will include a fitness center, theater, salon, chapel; First TRC meeting June 2019 TRC – Technical Review Committee 32 For-Sale Housing According to planning and building representatives, there are multiple for-sale projects planned within the Buncombe County. These projects are summarized in the table that follows. For-sale Housing – Asheville City Limits Subdivision/Condominium Units Product Type Developer Status/ Details 17 North Market 17 North Market Street Asheville 14 Condominiums Lawyers Bldg. of Asheville Inc Under Construction: Redevelopment of a two-story building and will add two stories; Two-bedroom/two-bath units at 1,267 sq. ft, and reclaimed brick walls, reclaimed hardwood floors, luxury finishes; List price $899,900; Three units have been reserved. Anticipated complete date late 2019 N/A 56 Hibriten Drive Asheville 10 Single-Family Homes N/A Planned: TRC approved March 2019 for a major subdivision and new road to create 10 lots, with an existing home remaining N/A 156 Faircrest Road Asheville 7 Single-Family Homes Stephen Zarnowski Planned: In TRC Development Review for a seven-lot subdivision located on 22.25 acres Abundance Run (FKA Orchard Trail) 99999 Old Haw Creek Road Asheville 16 Single-Family Homes Akin Properties, LLC Planned: In TRC Development a 16-lot subdivision located on 5.87 acres Marsh Creek Subdivision 99999 New Leicester Highway Asheville 22 Single-Family Homes Kodagem, LLC Planned: In TRC Development Review for a 22-lot subdivision located on 5.47 acres Birch Lane Subdivision 97, 95, and 99999 Birch Lane Asheville 26 Single-Family Homes Dalton Family Planned: In TRC Development Review for request for the review of a major subdivision to create 26 residential lots Peace and Moore Subdivision 61 and 57 Moore Avenue Asheville 19 Single-Family Homes Reasonable Development, LLC Planned: In TRC Development Review to create 12 cottage units and seven single- family lots; Project is located on 1.95 acres Create 82 Broadway 99999 Broadway Street, 67 Market Street, and 61 Market Street Asheville 31 Condominiums BPR Properties Planned: A 150-room boutique hotel with 29 condominium units (one affordable) and two affordable live/work units; Could be completed in 2022 Riverwoods Subdivision 99999 Ferry Road Asheville 389 Mixed-use, Duplexes, Condominiums, Single-Family Lots Ron Hirji Planned: Council approved January 2019; In TRC Development Review; Mixed-use with 8,000 to 15,000 sq. ft. commercial space, 94 duplexes, 36 condominiums, 4 live/work spaces, and 161 single-family lots on 137 acres; 8% units will be affordable at 100 % AMHI; 188 SFH could sell for up to $450,000; Affordable housing from some of the 36 condominiums and listed near $200,000; 188 duplexes and four live-work units no prices available North Bear Creek 99999 N Bear Creek Road Asheville 20 Single-Family Lots Marcus Barksdale Planned: TRC approved; two-phase, 20-lot single-family residential subdivision with water and sewer extensions and new road Reynolds Road Subdivision 50 and 99999 Reynolds Road Asheville 6 Single-Family Lots Reasonable Development, LLC. Planned: In TRC Development Review of a 7-lot major subdivision on 0.812 acres TRC – Technical Review Committee SFH – Single-Family Homes 33 (Continued) For-sale Housing – Asheville City Limits Subdivision/Condominium Units Product Type Developer Status/ Details Lakewood Forest Subdivision 99999 Lakewood and 99999 Kenilworth Road Asheville 14 Single-Family Lots Cane Creek Vistas, LLC Planned: In TRC Development Review 14 lot subdivision on 2.46 acres Rowhouse Development 199 Broadway Street Asheville 20 Townhomes Boulevard Development Group Planned: Approved; Luxury three-and-a- half-story walk-ups, two- or three-car garage, three- or four-bedrooms Orange Blossom Subdivision 1 Orange Blossom Way Asheville 6 Single-Family Lots Mills Gap 537 LLC Planned: Approved 145 Biltmore 145 Biltmore Avenue Asheville 34 Condominiums Preserve Communities NC LLC Planned: In final TRC Development Review; Luxury condos in seven-story building; Four units will be penthouses; One- and two-bedrooms with terraces at $425 per sq. ft; All sold but eight units; Some units may be short on vacation rentals; One deeded parking space per unit, can purchase a second parking space for $50,000. Bear Creek Homes 220 and 239 Bear Creek Road Asheville 30 Single-Family Lots Blossom & Huger, LLC Planned: Approved 2017 TBD 88 Southside Avenue Asheville 18 Townhomes Peter Thom Planned: In TRC Development Final Review; Four-story townhome units on 0.89 acres; Proposed under $500,000 Mill Creek Townhome 85 Mills Gap Road Asheville 16 Townhomes Ken Jackson Planned: TRC Approved; complete the build out of previously approved and constructed townhomes; Existing three- bedroom home built 2016 and sold for $191,975; HOA fees $123 TRC – Technical Review Committee SFH – Single-Family Homes 34 For-sale Housing – Buncombe County (Outside Ashville City Limits) Subdivision/Condominium Units Product Type Developer Status/ Details Hamrick Farms Pin 9617-26-5961 (Owenby Road) Asheville (Buncombe County) 69 Single-Family Lots WH Hamrick Liv Trust Planned: Plat approved November 2018 Lance Road Subdivision PIN 9633‐98‐0985 and 9633‐99‐7123 Asheville (Buncombe County) 95 Single-Family Lots Delta Express, Inc Planned: Plat approved with conditions June 2018 144 Lover Grassy Branch Road Asheville (Buncombe County) 12 Single-Family Homes Farmbound Holdings LLC Planned: Submitted plans to Buncombe County June 2019 Old Haywood Road Project Old Haywood Road Asheville (Buncombe County) 98 Single-Family Homes & Townhomes Asheville Area Habitat for Humanity Planned: BOA approved February 2019; For households at or below 80% AMHI; 38 homes will be in Phase I; Plan to begin construction; March 2020 with move ins February 2023 Biltmore Terrace 37 Oakley Dogwood Drive Asheville (Buncombe County) 80 Single-Family Homes & Townhomes Biltmore Terrace Development Planned: 56 single-family homes and 24 townhomes Pond Road Development 199 Pond Road Asheville (Buncombe County) 240 Single-Family Homes & Townhomes Serota Weaverville LLC Planned: BOA approved 2018 with five years vested rights for 100 single-family homes and 140 townhomes Riverbend Forest 423 Moffitt Road Asheville (Buncombe County) 23 Single-Family Lots RBF Development LLC Mountain Commercial Property Co. LLC Proposed: Plans submitted December 2018 Haywood Road Subdivision 1773 Old Haywood Road Asheville (Buncombe County) 79 Single-Family Homes John Hale Planned: Lots are planned to be sold to tenants and managed by a homeowner’s association. Preserve at Avery’s Creek Owen Drive & Avery Creek Road Arden 145 Single-Family Homes & Townhomes Fred Spiegel Under Construction; 105 single-family lots & 40 townhomes; Priced starting at $549,000; Infrastructure is in place and model homes are under construction Birch Lane Subdivision 97, 95, and 99999 Birch Lane Arden 26 Single-Family Lots Daltons Planned: In TRC Review June 2019 Cliffs at Walnut Cove Phase 9 158 Walnut Valley Pkwy Arden 62 Single-Family Lots Urbana Cliffs Planned: Submitted plans November 2018: Plat approved with conditions; Homesites from $150,000-$1.8 million+ Homes and Townhomes from $850,000-$4 million+ 605 Old U.S. 70 East Black Mountain 60 Single-Family Lots Laurel Wood Associates LLC Planned: BOA approved 2018; Lots will be sold to homebuyers when infrastructure is in place Curry Court 1 Curry Court Candler 11 Single-Family Homes & Townhomes Asheville Area Habitat for Humanity Under Construction: One single-family home is completed, and two are under construction- all have home owners; Price of SFH $206,000; Eight townhomes are nearing completion; No price set on townhomes; Monthly mortgage payment will not exceed 30% of their income TRC – Technical Review Committee SFH – Single-Family Homes BOA – Board of Adjustment 35 (Continued) For-sale Housing – Buncombe County (Outside Ashville City Limits) Subdivision/Condominium Units Product Type Developer Status/ Details Liberty Oaks 99999 Bessie Luther Boulevard Candler 111 Single-Family Homes & Townhomes Liberty Oaks Fund Under Construction: 35 single-family Lots in Phase 3, to begin 2022; 14 single-family attached patio homes in Phase 2 to begin 2020; 62 three-bedrooms, 2.5 bath townhomes with single car garages starting at $203,000; Some townhomes are completed with all completed by 2020 Holbrook Road Subdivision 65 Hartshorn Drive Candler 151 Single-Family Lots Holbrook Trust Planned: Infrastructure construction ongoing; Developer has five years vested rights Gudger Road Subdivision 26 Gudger Road Candler 6 Single-Family Lots Gudger Group, LLC Planned: Six-lot subdivision on 2.18 acres Estates at Cane Creek 1805 Cane Creek Road Fletcher 29 Single-Family Lots Farm at Cane Creek Planned: Submitted plans January 2019 and plat approved with conditions 705 Bee Tree Road Swannanoa 11 Single-Family Homes Hazel Creek Construction Planned: BOA approved January 2019; Two- and three-bedroom homes with attached garages; Lillie Farm Cove Lillie Farm Lane, Yarrow Meadow Road, Declan Drive each adjacent to North Main Street Weaverville 46 Single-Family Homes Mountain Housing Opportunities Under Construction: 75% complete; 1,200-square-foot, three-bedroom; Four- bedroom @ 1,428 sq. ft. sold $259,000 Amblers Chase Amblers Knoll Road near intersection Reems Creek Road and Eller Cove Road Weaverville 21 Single-Family Lots Amblers Chase LLC Planned: Preliminary plat approved with infrastructure installation underway Northridge Commons Townhouses Benedict Lane and Gregory Court adjacent to Monticello Road Weaverville 53 Townhomes Northridge Commons Investors, LLC Under Construction: Preliminary plat approved with infrastructure installation underway TRC – Technical Review Committee SFH – Single-Family Homes BOA – Board of Adjustment Note: We did not include any planned subdivisions that had five or fewer single- family lots planned. 36 F. HOUSING GAP ESTIMATES Bowen National Research conducted housing gap analyses for rental and for-sale housing for the subject county. The housing gap estimates include new household growth, units required for a balanced market, households living in substandard housing (replacement housing), and units in the development pipeline. This estimate is considered a representation of the housing shortage in the market and indicative of the more immediate housing requirements of the market. Our estimates consider five income stratifications for the rental analysis and three for the for-sale analysis. For the rental gap analysis, these stratifications include households with incomes of up to 30% of Area Median Household Income (AMHI), households with incomes between 31% and 50% of AMHI, between 51% and 80% of AMHI, between 80% and 120% of AMHI, and above 120% of AMHI. The for-sale gap analysis includes stratifications of up to 80% of AMHI, 81% to 120% of AMHI and above 120% of AMHI. The demand components included in the housing gap estimates for each of the two housing types (rental and for-sale) are listed as follows: Housing Gap Analysis Components Rental Housing Owner Housing  Renter Household Growth  Owner Household Growth  Units Required for a Balanced Market  Units Required for a Balanced Market  Replacement of Substandard Housing*  Replacement of Substandard Housing*  Commuter Support  Commuter Support  Step-Down Support**  Step-Down Support**  Pipeline Development^  Pipeline Development^ *Includes units that lack complete indoor plumbing and overcrowded housing **Includes portion of higher-income households that can afford higher-priced product but choose lower priced product ^Units under construction, permitted, planned or proposed The demand factors for each housing segment at the various income stratifications are combined. Any product confirmed to be in the development pipeline is deducted from the various demand estimates, yielding a housing gap estimate. These gaps represent the number of new households that may need housing and/or the number of existing households that currently live in housing that needs replaced to relieve occupants of such things as overcrowded or substandard housing conditions. Data used for these various demand components originates from the demographic analysis portion of this study. 37 Rental Housing Gap Analysis The table below summarizes the rental housing gap estimates by the various income segments and corresponding rental rates. Demand Component Rental Housing Gap Estimates AMHI <30% 30%-50% 51%-80% 81%-120% 121%+ Income <$20k $20k-$35k $36k-$55k $56k-$80k $81k+ Rent <$500 $500-$874 $875-$1,374 $1,375-$1,999 $2,000+ New Households (2018-2023) -658 -263 845 439 1,366 Balanced Market 576 436 407 58 55 Substandard Housing 787 306 183 55 31 Commuter Support 696 582 516 936 288 Step-Down Support 0 85 47 961 -1,093 Development Pipeline -277 -102 -968 -1,545 -496 Total Housing Gap 1,124 1,044 1,030 904 151 AMHI – Area Median Household Income While there is a housing gap deficit among each of the income segments, the largest is among the lowest income segment. Although most of the product in the development pipeline (either under construction or planned) falls within the $875 to $1,999 rent ranges, there still remains demand for housing at this price level. Based on these estimates, while a variety of product types by rent level can be supported, the greatest gaps appear to be for housing that serves lower-income households and workforce households. 38 For-Sale Housing Gap Analysis The table below summarizes the for-sale housing gap estimates by the various income segments and corresponding price points. Demand Component For-Sale Housing Gap Estimates AMHI <80% 81%-120% 121%+ Income <$55k $56k-$80k $81k+ Home Price <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000+ New Households (2018-2023) -242 1,620 3,696 Balanced Market 257 65 -508 Substandard Housing 189 56 32 Commuter Support 209 321 123 Step-Down Support 486 739 -739 Development Pipeline -54 -128 -377 Total Housing Gap 845 2,673 2,227 AMHI – Area Median Household Income As shown in the preceding owner housing gap analysis, the greatest housing gap is for product priced between $200,000 and $299,999, with a nearly equal housing gap for housing priced at $300,000 and higher. This particular gap is primarily driven by the new household growth projected through 2023. While smaller in scale, there still remains a notable housing gap for product priced under $200,000. The demand for the lower-priced project originates from a variety of sources, with a notable amount resulting from the lack of available product at this price range.