Asheville Buncombe_Housing Needs Assessment _ Bowen Report
Prepared For
City of Asheville Community and
Economic Development Department
70 Court Plaza, 5th Floor
Asheville, North Carolina 28802
Effective Date
August 26, 2019
Revised: September 17, 2019
Job Reference Number
19-346 (Patrick Bowen)
155 E. Columbus Street, Suite 220
Pickerington, Ohio 43147
Phone: (614) 833-9300
Bowennational.com
Housing Needs Update
Buncombe County, North Carolina
Bowen National Research
155 E. Columbus Street, Suite 220
Pickerington, Ohio 43147
(614) 833-9300
September 17, 2019
Mr. Paul D’Angelo
City of Asheville
Community and Economic Development Department
70 Court Plaza, 5th Floor
Asheville, North Carolina 28802
Re: Buncombe County, North Carolina Housing Needs Update (Final Draft)
Dear Mr. D’Angelo:
Bowen National Research is pleased to provide you with the final draft of the Housing
Needs report of Buncombe County, North Carolina that we completed on your behalf.
This draft is a reduced scope from the original regional housing study we completed in
2014 and incorporates revisions to our August 26, 2019 draft that you requested. This
includes an Executive Summary that you asked to be added.
This update includes key demographic characteristics and trends (including projections
through 2023), a telephone survey of over 100 multifamily apartments, a sample survey
of more than 100 non-conventional and vacation rentals, nine years of for-sale housing
activity and an inventory of the available for-sale housing stock, identification of housing
product in the development pipeline (under construction and planned), and housing gap
estimates for rental and for-sale housing at various affordability levels.
We provided several comparisons of the housing market conditions of 2014 with the
latest 2019 housing supply that illustrate key changes in both the rental and for-sale
housing markets that we believe you will find interesting. We did not include any of the
raw data collected and used in this analysis, but we can provide such data upon request.
We have enjoyed working on this project.
Respectfully,
Patrick M. Bowen
Enc:
Executive Summary- 1
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The purpose of this report is to assess the Buncombe County housing market through an
evaluation of key demographic characteristics and trends along with an inventory and
analysis of the most
common housing
alternatives offered in the
county. Additionally, we
compare key metrics
from our 2014 analysis
of the area with the most
current data to illustrate
changes and trends in the
market. We conclude the
report by conducting a
housing gap analysis for
rental and for-sale
housing at various
affordability levels. This
Executive Summary
considers key findings
from our analysis.
Demographics
Overall Population and Household Demographic Trends have been Positive Since 2010
and are Projected to Experience Notable Growth through at Least 2023 - Buncombe
County experienced significant overall population and household growth rates between
2010 and 2018, outpacing both the Asheville MSA and the state of North Carolina.
Between 2018 and
2023, it is projected
that the Buncombe
County population will
increase by 17,899
(6.7%) and the number
of households will
increase by 7,145
(6.4%). This rapid
growth will continue to
contribute to the
ongoing demand for
housing for the
foreseeable future.
Executive Summary- 2
Senior Households (Ages 65 and Older) are Projected to Experience the Greatest
Growth in the County between 2018 and 2023 - While all household age segments are
projected to grow between 2018 and 2023, it is expected that most of the growth will
be among households with ages 65 to 74 and ages 75 and older. While this growth is
primarily attributed to
households aging in
place, these projected
growth trends indicate a
likely growing need for
senior-oriented housing
within the county.
However, with growth
also expected among all
age groups, the market
demand for a variety of
housing product types
and designs will exist.
While the Majority of Area Renter Households Earn Less Than $40,000 Annually
and the Majority of Homeowner Households Earn $60,000 or More Annually, Most
Growth through 2023 will Occur Among Moderate- to High-Income Households –
In 2018, over half (56.4%) of renter households in Buncombe County had annual
income below $40,000, while over half (51.9%) of owner-occupied households had
income of $60,000 or greater. New renter household growth is projected to be among
both moderate- (earning between $30,000 and $59,999) and high- (earning $60,000
and higher) income households between 2018 and 2023. During this same time
period, owner household growth in the county will primarily be among homeowners
with incomes of $50,000 and higher, though some notable growth will occur among
homeowners earning below $20,000 a year.
Executive Summary- 3
Substandard Housing Conditions and Households in Cost Burdened Housing
Situations Remain a Significant Challenge Among Area Households - In Buncombe
County, 2,718 (7.1%) renter households and 817 (1.2%) owner households are
experiencing overcrowded housing situations. A total of 17,643 (46.1%) renter
households are cost burdened (paying over 30% of their income towards housing
costs) and 7,439 (19.4%) are severe cost burdened (paying over 50% of their income
towards housing costs). As such, more than 3,500 households live in substandard
housing conditions and nearly 18,000 renter households are paying disproportionately
high shares of income towards their housing costs. These characteristics stress the
importance of both affordability and quality/modernization of the local housing stock.
Multifamily Rental Housing Supply
While the Area’s Overall Occupancy Rate (95.3%) for Multifamily Rental Housing
Stock has Declined Since 2014 (99.2%), Most Affordable Rental Properties Remain
Full with Long Wait Lists - The 122 surveyed multifamily rental properties have a
combined occupancy rate of 95.3%, down from the 99.2% occupancy rate from
December of 2014. This is considered a healthy occupancy rate and indicates the
overall market has a good balance of occupied and vacant units. Currently, a total of
719 vacant units were identified in the county. This is a significant increase from the
99 vacant units that were identified in late 2014. It appears the influx of new
multifamily apartments has put the overall market into a better balance at this time.
However, there remains limited availability for lower income households seeking
affordable rental housing.
Surveyed Multifamily Apartments – July 2019 December 2014
Project Type
Projects
Surveyed
Total
Units
Vacant
Units
Occupancy
Rate
Occupancy
Rate
Market-rate 70 10,348 616 94.0% 98.8%
Market-rate/Tax Credit 8 1,687 99 94.1% 100.0%
Market-rate/Government-Subsidized 1 123 0 100.0% 100.0%
Tax Credit 24 1,087 2 99.8% 100.0%
Tax Credit/Government-Subsidized 7 511 0 100.0% 100.0%
Government-Subsidized 12 1,392 2 99.9% 100.0%
Total 122 15,148 719 95.3% 99.2%
Executive Summary- 4
The Introduction of New Rental Product Over the Past Few Years has not
Limited Rent Increases, as both Market-rate and Tax Credit Annual Rent
Growth has Averaged Around 5.0% Since 2014 - While the market-rate rental
vacancy rate has increased from 1.2% in 2014 to 6.0% in 2019 due to the
introduction of
thousands of new
market-rate units, the
overall median market-
rate rent has increased at
a relatively rapid rate of
5.4% annually.
Although vacancies are
much more limited
among the Tax Credit
supply, rents among this
supply have increased at
an annual rate of 4.8%
over the past five years.
There is Limited Availability and Long Wait Lists Among Government-
Subsidized Projects and for Housing Choice Vouchers - A total of 20 multifamily
properties were surveyed in the county that operate with a government subsidy.
There were only two vacant units among the 1,831 total government-subsidized
units surveyed. According to management at the surveyed subsidized projects,
most of these properties have long wait lists. According to a representative with
the Housing Authority of the City of Asheville, there are approximately 2,781
Housing Choice Voucher holders within the housing authority’s jurisdiction and
1,442 people currently on the waiting list for additional vouchers. These market
metrics indicate a strong level of pent-up demand for rental housing serving the
lowest income households in the market.
Executive Summary- 5
Efforts Made by the Local Government to Encourage the Development of
Affordable Housing have Increased the Number of Such Units, yet there
Remains Pent-up Demand for Housing Serving Lower Income Households - As
a result of local government efforts to support affordable rental housing, there have
been several mixed-income projects developed in recent years that include a
combination of both market-rate and Tax Credit apartments. Additionally, several
projects are in the development pipeline (either under construction or planned for
development) that will include mixed-income units. Of the 2,441 units either
existing or in the development pipeline that are within mixed-income projects, 368
are income restricted. These 368 units represent 15.1% of the overall units offered
at these projects. The income restrictions preserve these particular units for low-
income households earning up to 80% of AMHI and are developed through such
things as the Low-Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) program, the Housing
Trust Fund, or the Asheville Affordable Housing Program. It is worth pointing out
that over two-thirds of the affordable housing units at these projects were
developed after 2014, illustrating the improved efforts to address rental
affordability issues in the market. Despite these efforts, there are very few
available units among the affordable rental housing supply and many projects have
wait lists.
For-Sale Housing
For-Sale Housing Activity has Remained Steady Since 2013, While Median
Home Prices Continue to Escalate - Home sales activity within the county has
remained relatively steady since 2013, with the market experiencing an average
sales pace around 3,300 to 3,600 homes annually over the past six years. Sales
activity for 2019 is on pace for nearly 3,500 home sales, continuing the trend of
stable sales activity recently experienced in the market. The county has
experienced rising median sales prices over the past eight years. The current
median home sales price of $315,000 represents a 10-year high. The positive
trends among sales volume and sales prices are good indications of a healthy and
stable for-sale housing market in Buncombe County.
Executive Summary- 6
The Available Inventory of For-Sale Housing has Diminished Significantly
Since 2014, with a Substantial Decrease Among Product Priced Under $200,000
- The 1,300 housing units currently available for purchase in the county is 434
fewer than there were in late 2014, representing a decrease of 25.0%. The
available inventory of product priced under $200,000 has diminished to just 63
units, down from 460 homes at these price points in 2014. Demand for product
priced between $100,000 and $199,999 remains rather strong, as evidenced by the
average days on market of just 78 for such product. Meanwhile, higher priced
product, generally at $400,000 or higher, has increased dramatically. Product at
these higher price points now represents 56.6% of the available inventory (up from
35.6% in 2014). The significantly diminishing overall supply of available product
has likely contributed to the continued increases in home prices. Moreover, with
the lower priced (under $200,000) product virtually non-existent, lower income
households generally earning below $60,000 have very limited home buying
choices.
Residential Development Pipeline
With Approximately 3,800 Rental Housing Units Either Under Construction or
Planned for the Market, the Area is at Some Risk of Having an Overbuilt Market
– According to local planning departments, it is believed that approximately 3,800
multifamily apartments are currently under construction or in some stage of the
planning process. It is believed that roughly 2,300 of these units will have rents of
over $1,400 per month, with an additional 1,100 units priced between $900 and
$1,399. Only about 450 units are in the pipeline that would be priced under $900, yet
such units will serve a housing segment with pent-up demand. Given that the
current overall market-rate vacancy rate has reached 6.0% and more than 2,000 units
are expected to be added to the market-rate supply over the next 18 to 24 months, the
market-rate rental housing segment may be reaching a point of saturation.
Conversely, the pent-up demand for rental product priced under $900 should
positively affect the absorption of such units in the development pipeline.
Executive Summary- 7
Housing Gap Estimates
Bowen National Research conducted housing gap analyses for rental and for-sale
housing for the subject county that considered a variety of affordability and
income levels.
While All Affordability and Income Levels Demonstrate Housing Gaps for
Rental Product, the Greatest Gaps are For Product Affordable to Households
with the Lowest Incomes - While there is a housing gap deficit among each of the
income segments, the largest is among the lowest income segment. Although most
of the product in the development pipeline (either under construction or planned)
falls within the $875 to $1,999 rent ranges, there still remains demand for housing
at this price level. Based on these estimates, while a variety of product types by
rent level can be supported, the greatest gaps appear to be for housing that serves
lower income households and workforce households.
Demand
Component
Rental Housing Gap Estimates
AMHI <30% 30%-50% 51%-80% 81%-120% 121%+
Income <$20k $20k-$35k $36k-$55k $56k-$80k $81k+
Rent <$500 $500-$874 $875-$1,374 $1,375-$1,999 $2,000+
New Households (2018-2023) -658 -263 845 439 1,366
Balanced Market 576 436 407 58 55
Substandard Housing 787 306 183 55 31
Commuter Support 696 582 516 936 288
Step-Down Support 0 85 47 961 -1,093
Development Pipeline -277 -102 -968 -1,545 -496
Total Housing Gap 1,124 1,044 1,030 904 151
AMHI – Area Median Household Income
Executive Summary- 8
The Housing Gaps for For-Sale Housing are Significant Among All Affordability
and Income Levels, with the Greatest Gap Existing Among Product that Serves
Moderate-Income Households - As shown in the owner housing gap analysis, the
greatest housing gap is for product priced between $200,000 and $299,999, with a
nearly equal housing gap for housing priced at $300,000 and higher. These particular
gaps are primarily driven by the new household growth projected through 2023.
While smaller in scale, there still remains a notable housing gap for product priced
under $200,000. The demand for the lower priced project originates from a variety of
sources, with a notable amount resulting from the lack of available product at this
price range.
Demand
Component
For-Sale Housing Gap Estimates
AMHI <80% 81%-120% 121%+
Income <$55k $56k-$80k $81k+
Home Price <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000+
New Households (2018-2023) -242 1,620 3,696
Balanced Market 257 65 -508
Substandard Housing 189 56 32
Commuter Support 209 321 123
Step-Down Support 486 739 -739
Development Pipeline -54 -128 -377
Total Housing Gap 845 2,673 2,227
AMHI – Area Median Household Income
1
BUNCOMBE COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS ASSESSMENT
A. INTRODUCTION
The focus of this analysis is to assess the market characteristics of, and to determine
the housing needs for, Buncombe County. To accomplish this task, Bowen National
Research evaluated various socio-economic characteristics, inventoried and analyzed
the housing supply (rental and owner/for-sale product), identified product in the
development pipeline, and provided housing gap estimates to help identify the housing
needs of the county.
This report is an update to a 2014 Housing Needs Assessment of this market and
includes some data points from that original analysis.
B. COUNTY OVERVIEW
Buncombe County is located within the western portion of North Carolina and serves
as the region’s economic and cultural center. It encompasses a total of 656 square
miles. Primary thoroughfares within the county include U.S. Highways 23, 25 and 74,
and Interstate Highways 26, 40 and 240. Notable natural landmarks and public
attractions include the
Blue Ridge Parkway, the
Pisgah National Forest,
Biltmore Estate and the
North Carolina
Arboretum. In 2018, the
county had a total
population of 266,322
(7th largest in the state).
Asheville, with a 2018
population of 92,452, is
the largest community in
the county and the 12th
largest city in the state.
Additional details
regarding demographics
and housing, and other
pertinent research and
findings are included on
the following pages.
2
C. DEMOGRAPHICS
This section of the report evaluates key demographic characteristics for Buncombe
County. Through this analysis, unfolding trends and unique conditions are revealed
regarding populations and households residing in the county. Demographic
comparisons provide insights into the human composition of housing markets.
This section is comprised of three major parts: population characteristics, household
characteristics, and income data. Population characteristics describe the qualities of
individual people, while household characteristics describe the qualities of people
living together in one residence.
It is important to note that 2000 and 2010 demographics are based on U.S. Census data
(actual count), while 2018 and 2023 data are based on calculated projections provided
by ESRI, a nationally recognized demography firm, and the 2013-2017 American
Community Survey. The accuracy of these projections depends on the realization of
certain assumptions:
Economic projections made by secondary sources materialize;
Governmental policies with respect to residential development remain consistent;
Availability of financing for residential development (i.e. mortgages, commercial
loans, subsidies, Tax Credits, etc.) remains consistent;
Sufficient housing and infrastructure are provided to support projected population
and household growth;
Significant unforeseen changes or fluctuations among any of the preceding
assumptions could have an impact on demographic projections.
Population and household data for selected years within Buncombe County are
compared with the broader Asheville Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) and the
state of North Carolina in the following table:
Buncombe County Asheville MSA North Carolina
Population Households Population Households Population Households
2000 Census 206,366 85,791 369,163 154,283 8,049,315 3,131,018
2010 Census 238,384 100,439 424,850 179,909 9,535,490 3,745,159
Change 2000-2010 32,018 14,648 55,687 25,626 1,486,175 614,141
Percent Change 2000-2010 15.5% 17.1% 15.1% 16.6% 18.5% 19.6%
2018 Estimated 266,322 111,165 469,781 197,562 10,455,567 4,087,415
Change 2010-2018 27,938 10,726 44,931 17,653 920,077 342,256
Percent Change 2010-2018 11.7% 10.7% 10.6% 9.8% 9.6% 9.1%
2023 Projected 284,221 118,310 499,606 209,698 11,061,161 4,317,051
Change 2018-2023 17,899 7,145 29,825 12,136 605,594 229,636
Percent Change 2018-2023 6.7% 6.4% 6.3% 6.1% 5.8% 5.6%
Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research
3
Buncombe County experienced significant overall population and household growth
rates between 2010 and 2018, outpacing both the Asheville MSA and the state of
North Carolina. Between 2018 and 2023, it is projected that the Buncombe County
population will increase by 17,899 (6.7%) and the number of households will increase
by 7,145 (6.4%). The percent of projected growth for both population and households
are expected to be greater than the MSA and state. This rapid growth will continue
to contribute to the ongoing demand for housing for the foreseeable future.
Household heads by age cohorts for selected years are shown in the following table:
Household Heads by Age
<25 25 to 34 35 to 44 45 to 54 55 to 64 65 to 74 75+
Buncombe County
2010 4,459
(4.4%)
14,981
(14.9%)
17,170
(17.1%)
19,582
(19.5%)
19,554
(19.5%)
12,804
(12.7%)
11,890
(11.8%)
2018 4,466
(4.0%)
15,651
(14.1%)
17,626
(15.9%)
18,889
(17.0%)
21,871
(19.7%)
18,509
(16.7%)
14,153
(12.7%)
2023 4,639
(3.9%)
15,825
(13.4%)
18,552
(15.7%)
18,944
(16.0%)
21,873
(18.5%)
21,205
(17.9%)
17,272
(14.6%)
Change
2018-2023
173
(3.9%)
174
(1.1%)
926
(5.3%)
55
(0.3%)
2
(0.0%)
2,696
(14.6%)
3,119
(22.0%)
North Carolina
2010 192,967
(5.2%)
588,691
(15.7%)
712,157
(19.0%)
771,239
(20.6%)
673,803
(18.0%)
443,535
(11.8%)
362,762
(9.7%)
2018 187,547
(4.6%)
640,341
(15.7%)
696,488
(17.0%)
747,708
(18.3%)
772,560
(18.9%)
618,322
(15.1%)
424,449
(10.4%)
2023 192,122
(4.5%)
661,029
(15.3%)
735,426
(17.0%)
729,219
(16.9%)
778,971
(18.0%)
702,384
(16.3%)
517,900
(12.0%)
Change
2018-2023
4,575
(2.4%)
20,688
(3.2%)
38,938
(5.6%)
-18,489
(-2.5%)
6,411
(0.8%)
84,062
(13.6%)
93,451
(22.0%)
Source: 2000, 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research
4
In 2018, it was estimated that the largest share (19.7%) of households by age in
Buncombe County was among the 55 to 64 age cohort. The distribution of households
by age among all other age groups within the county is relatively balanced above the
age of 24. While all household age segments are projected to grow between 2018 and
2023, it is expected that most of the growth will be among household ages 65 to 74
and age 75 and older. While this growth is attributed to households aging in place,
these projected growth trends indicate a likely growing need for senior-oriented
housing within the county. However, with growth also expected among all age
groups, the market demand for a variety of product types and designs will exist.
5
Renter households by income for selected years are shown below:
Renter Households by Income
<$10,000
$10,000 -
$19,999
$20,000 -
$29,999
$30,000 -
$39,999
$40,000 -
$49,999
$50,000 -
$59,999
$60,000 -
$99,999 $100,000+
Buncombe
County
2010 4,853
(14.1%)
7,792
(22.6%)
6,564
(19.1%)
4,331
(12.6%)
3,341
(9.7%)
2,339
(6.8%)
3,883
(11.3%)
1,333
(3.9%)
2018 3,692
(8.9%)
8,057
(19.5%)
6,169
(14.9%)
5,438
(13.1%)
5,243
(12.7%)
3,011
(7.3%)
6,473
(15.6%)
3,322
(8.0%)
2023 3,198
(7.4%)
7,893
(18.3%)
5,840
(13.5%)
5,570
(12.9%)
6,009
(13.9%)
3,038
(7.0%)
7,289
(16.9%)
4,299
(10.0%)
Change
2018-2023
-494
(-13.4%)
-164
(-2.0%)
-329
(-5.3%)
132
(2.4%)
765
(14.6%)
26
(0.9%)
816
(12.6%)
977
(29.4%)
North
Carolina
2010 195,723
(15.7%)
268,627
(21.5%)
209,386
(16.8%)
164,802
(13.2%)
128,213
(10.3%)
77,749
(6.2%)
154,325
(12.4%)
48,430
(3.9%)
2018 180,236
(12.3%)
259,703
(17.7%)
215,938
(14.7%)
186,030
(12.7%)
157,384
(10.7%)
108,406
(7.4%)
245,739
(16.8%)
113,455
(7.7%)
2023 163,917
(10.9%)
242,546
(16.2%)
204,555
(13.6%)
181,648
(12.1%)
164,150
(10.9%)
116,752
(7.8%)
280,098
(18.7%)
146,889
(9.8%)
Change
2018-2023
-16,318
(-9.1%)
-17,158
(-6.6%)
-11,383
(-5.3%)
-4,383
(-2.4%)
6,766
(4.3%)
8,346
(7.7%)
34,359
(14.0%)
33,434
(29.5%)
Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National
The distribution of owner households by income is included below:
Owner Households by Income
<$10,000
$10,000 -
$19,999
$20,000 -
$29,999
$30,000 -
$39,999
$40,000 -
$49,999
$50,000 -
$59,999
$60,000 -
$99,999 $100,000+
Buncombe
County
2010 3,408
(5.2%)
6,601
(10.0%)
8,067
(12.2%)
7,463
(11.3%)
7,458
(11.3%)
6,971
(10.6%)
14,883
(22.5%)
11,153
(16.9%)
2018 2,436
(3.5%)
5,928
(8.5%)
5,735
(8.2%)
6,133
(8.8%)
6,410
(9.2%)
6,905
(9.9%)
18,401
(26.4%)
17,811
(25.5%)
2023 2,470
(3.3%)
6,367
(8.5%)
5,606
(7.5%)
5,927
(7.9%)
6,194
(8.2%)
7,263
(9.7%)
20,996
(27.9%)
20,352
(27.1%)
Change
2018-2023
34
(1.4%)
439
(7.4%)
-129
(-2.2%)
-206
(-3.4%)
-215
(-3.4%)
359
(5.2%)
2,595
(14.1%)
2,541
(14.3%)
North
Carolina
2010 132,072
(5.3%)
229,311
(9.2%)
255,992
(10.2%)
264,204
(10.6%)
246,306
(9.9%)
235,841
(9.4%)
610,090
(24.4%)
524,083
(21.0%)
2018 106,219
(4.1%)
187,667
(7.2%)
214,174
(8.2%)
231,524
(8.8%)
222,681
(8.5%)
232,889
(8.9%)
677,425
(25.9%)
747,945
(28.5%)
2023 109,029
(3.9%)
194,106
(6.9%)
219,003
(7.8%)
237,048
(8.4%)
235,831
(8.4%)
248,033
(8.8%)
742,500
(26.4%)
830,946
(29.5%)
Change
2018-2023
2,809
(2.6%)
6,440
(3.4%)
4,829
(2.3%)
5,525
(2.4%)
13,150
(5.9%)
15,144
(6.5%)
65,075
(9.6%)
83,001
(11.1%)
Source: 2000 Census; 2010 Census; ESRI; Urban Decision Group; Bowen National Research
6
The largest share (19.5%) of renter households in Buncombe County in 2018 was
estimated to be among households with incomes between $10,000 and $19,999, which
is similar to the state average. Meanwhile, the largest share (26.4%) of owner-
occupied households at this same time will be among those with incomes between
$60,000 and $99,999, which is near the state share of 25.9%. New renter household
growth is projected to be among both moderate (earning between $30,000 and
$59,999) and high (earning $60,000 and higher) income households between 2018 and
2023. During this same time period, owner household growth in the county will
primarily be among homeowners with incomes of $50,000 and higher, though some
notable growth will occur among homeowners earning below $20,000 a year. The
projected growth among lower income households, particularly among home owners
is likely influenced by the large number of area seniors reaching retirement age and
experiencing declines in income. While the large amount of renter growth is expected
to occur among households that can generally afford market-rate rents, the large share
(39.2%) of renter households earning below $30,000 stresses the importance of having
product such as Tax Credit and government-subsidized housing to serve such
households in the market.
The following graph compares households by income and tenure for 2018:
7
The following graphs illustrate the projected household growth by income and tenure
from 2018 to 2023.
8
Overcrowded housing is considered a housing unit with 1.01 or more persons per
room, while severe overcrowded housing is considered a unit with 1.51 or more
persons per room. The following table illustrates the overcrowded households by
tenure for Buncombe County and North Carolina.
Overcrowded Severe Overcrowded
Renter Owner Renter Owner
County Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
Buncombe County 2,718 7.1% 817 1.2% 2,109 5.5% 240 0.4%
North Carolina 59,922 4.4% 31,649 1.3% 19,513 1.4% 7,250 0.3%
Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey
In Buncombe County, 2,718 (7.1%) renter households and 817 (1.2%) owner
households are experiencing overcrowded housing situations. The shares of such
households within North Carolina are 4.4% for renters and 1.3% for homeowners.
Severe overcrowded housing in the county totals 2,109 (5.5%) for renters and 240
(0.4%) for owners. While the shares of overcrowded and severe overcrowded
homeowners in Buncombe County are similar to the state averages, such overcrowded
and severe overcrowded households are much more pronounced among renters in the
county. As such, substandard housing conditions associated with overcrowding
remains a significant challenge for county renters. It is believed that the challenges
associated with affordability and availability are contributing to the overcrowded
housing in the county.
9
Evaluating the share of income that a household pays towards housing costs is an
important factor to consider when evaluating housing needs. Cost burdened
households are those paying over 30% of their income towards housing costs, while
severe cost burdened households are those paying over 50% of their income towards
housing costs. The following table illustrates the cost burdened and severe cost
burdened households for the county and the state.
Cost Burdened Severe Cost Burdened
Renter Owner Renter Owner
County Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent Number Percent
Buncombe County 17,643 46.1% 14,310 21.3% 7,439 19.4% 5,283 7.9%
North Carolina 600,819 44.3% 538,137 21.4% 292,735 21.6% 213,458 8.5%
Source: 2013-2017 American Community Survey
Among Buncombe County’s renter households in 2018, a total of 17,643 (46.1%) are
cost burdened and 7,439 (19.4%) are severe cost burdened. The shares of cost
burdened and severe cost burdened renter households in the county are comparable to
state averages. Among owner households in the county, a total of 14,310 (21.3%) are
cost burdened while 5,283 (7.9%) are severe cost burdened. These ratios are also very
similar to state averages. Based on this analysis, while the shares of households paying
a disproportionately high share of their income toward housing costs within
Buncombe County are similar to state shares, several thousands of renters and
homeowners are dealing with housing affordability challenges.
10
The graphs below illustrate the shares of cost burdened and severe cost burdened
households by tenure for Buncombe County and the state of North Carolina.
11
D. HOUSING SUPPLY
This housing supply analysis considers both rental and owner for-sale housing.
Understanding the historical trends, market performance, characteristics, composition,
and current housing choices provides critical information as to current market
conditions and future housing potential. The housing data presented and analyzed in
this section includes primary data collected directly by Bowen National Research and
from secondary data sources including American Community Survey (ACS), U.S.
Census housing information and data provided by various government entities and real
estate professionals.
While there are a variety of housing alternatives offered in Buncombe County, we
focused our analysis on the most common options. The housing structures included in
this analysis are:
Rental Housing – Multifamily rentals that generally include 20 or more units were
inventoried and surveyed. Additionally, rentals with three or fewer units, which
were classified as non-conventional rentals, were identified and surveyed. Other
rentals such as vacation rentals were also considered in this analysis.
Owner For-Sale Housing – We identified attached and detached for-sale housing,
which may be part of a planned development or community, as well as attached
multifamily housing such as condominiums.
This analysis includes Bowen National Research’s telephone survey of area rental
alternatives and an inventory of owner for-sale housing data (both historical sales and
available housing alternatives) obtained from secondary data sources (Multiple Listing
Service, REALTOR.com, and other on-line sources). Finally, we contacted local
building and planning departments to determine if any residential units of notable
scale were currently planned or under review by the local government. Any such units
were considered in the housing gap/needs estimates included later in this section.
a. Rental Housing
Multifamily Rental Housing
We identified and personally surveyed 122 multifamily housing projects
containing a total of 15,148 units within the county. This survey was conducted to
establish the overall strength of the rental market and to identify trends in the
multifamily rental market. Managers and leasing agents for each project were
surveyed to collect a variety of property information including vacancies, rental
rates, design characteristics, amenities, utility responsibility, and other features.
Projects were also rated based on quality and upkeep (based on our previous on-
site evaluations of this market), and each was mapped as part of this survey.
12
The following table illustrates the distribution of surveyed multifamily rental
housing supply by product/program type. It also includes a comparison of overall
occupancy rates for July of 2019 with December of 2014:
Surveyed Multifamily Apartments – July 2019 December 2014
Project Type
Projects
Surveyed
Total
Units
Vacant
Units
Occupancy
Rate
Occupancy
Rate
Market-rate 70 10,348 616 94.0% 98.8%
Market-rate/Tax Credit 8 1,687 99 94.1% 100.0%
Market-rate/Government-Subsidized 1 123 0 100.0% 100.0%
Tax Credit 24 1,087 2 99.8% 100.0%
Tax Credit/Government-Subsidized 7 511 0 100.0% 100.0%
Government-Subsidized 12 1,392 2 99.9% 100.0%
Total 122 15,148 719 95.3% 99.2%
As the preceding table illustrates, these multifamily rentals have a combined
occupancy rate of 95.3%, down from the 99.2% occupancy rate from December of
2014. This is considered a healthy occupancy rate and indicates the overall
market has a good balance of occupied and vacant units. Currently, a total of 719
vacant units were identified in the county. This is a significant increase from the
99 vacant units that were identified in late 2014. It appears the influx of new
multifamily apartments has put the overall market into a better balance at this time.
However, as evidenced by the high occupancy rates among the affordable (Tax
Credit and government-subsidized) rental inventory, there remains limited
availability for lower income households seeking such housing.
13
The following tables summarize the breakdown of non-subsidized units surveyed
by program type and bedroom/bathroom configuration within the county.
Market-rate Multifamily Apartments – July 2019
Bedroom Baths Units Share Vacancy
%
Vacant
Median
Collected
Rent
12/2014
Median
Collected
Rent
Change in
Rents
2014 to
2019
Average
Annual
Change in
Rents
Studio 1.0 150 1.3% 1 0.7% $825 $667 23.7% 4.7%
One-Bedroom 1.0 3,612 30.6% 196 5.4% $1,054 $830 27.0% 5.4%
One-Bedroom 2.0 43 0.4% 1 2.3% $2,155 N/A N/A N/A
Two-Bedroom 1.0 1,080 9.1% 51 4.7% $1,100 $800 37.5% 7.5%
Two-Bedroom 1.5 539 4.6% 7 1.3% $1,068 $915 16.7% 3.3%
Two-Bedroom 2.0 4,688 39.7% 337 7.2% $1,308 $1,022 28.0% 5.6%
Two-Bedroom 2.5 219 1.9% 10 4.6% $1,310 $1,031 27.1% 5.4%
Three-Bedroom 1.0 88 0.7% 1 1.1% $889 $739 20.3% 4.1%
Three-Bedroom 1.5 163 1.4% 0 0.0% $1,245 $1,000 24.5% 4.9%
Three-Bedroom 2.0 1,123 9.5% 102 9.1% $1,490 $1,242 20.0% 4.0%
Three-Bedroom 2.5 76 0.6% 1 1.3% $1,600 $1,303 22.8% 4.6%
Three-Bedroom 3.0 4 0.0% 0 0.0% $1,400 $1,100 27.3% 5.5%
Three-Bedroom 3.5 1 0.0% 0 0.0% $6,928 N/A N/A N/A
Four-Bedroom 1.5 20 0.2% 0 0.0% $1,000 $789 26.7% 5.3%
Four-Bedroom 2.0 8 0.1% 0 0.0% $1,560 $1,005 55.2% 11.0%
Total Market-rate 11,814 100.0%707 6.0%- - - 5.4%
N/A – Not Available
Tax Credit Multifamily Apartments - July 2019
Bedroom
Baths Units Share Vacancy
%
Vacant
Median
Collected
Rent
12/2014
Median
Collected
Rent
Change in
Rents
2014 to
2019
Average
Annual
Change in
Rents
Studio 1.0 19 1.3% 0 0.0% $308 $222 38.7% 7.7%
One-Bedroom 1.0 606 40.3% 7 1.2% $555 $467 18.8% 3.8%
Two-Bedroom 1.0 418 27.8% 0 0.0% $590 $531 11.1% 2.2%
Two-Bedroom 1.5 34 2.3% 0 0.0% $655 N/A N/A N/A
Two-Bedroom 2.0 186 12.4% 3 1.6% $694 $388 78.9% 15.8%
Three-Bedroom 1.0 67 4.5% 0 0.0% $741 $658 12.6% 2.5%
Three-Bedroom 2.0 150 10.0% 0 0.0% $689 $580 18.8% 3.8%
Four-Bedroom 1.5 21 1.4% 0 0.0% $969 $706 37.3% 7.5%
Four-Bedroom 2.0 2 0.1% 0 0.0% $578 $335 72.5% 14.5%
Total Tax Credit 1,503 100.0%10 0.7%- - - 4.8%
N/A – Not Available
The overall vacancy rate among surveyed market-rate product is currently 6.0%,
which is notably higher than the 1.2% vacancy rate for this product type in 2014.
While the vacancy rate has increased over the past five years, the overall median
market-rate rent has increased at a relatively rapid rate of 5.4% annually.
Vacancies are much more limited among the Tax Credit supply, with just 10
vacant units identified in the county. The resulting Tax Credit vacancy rate of
0.7% is higher than but comparable to the 0.0% vacancy rate for this same product
type in 2014. The limited availability and introduction of newer Tax Credit units
are likely contributing factors to the rapidly increasing Tax Credit rents, which
experienced a 4.8% annual rent increase over the past five years.
14
The following graphs illustrate the overall vacancy rates (2014 vs. 2019) and the
average annual rent growth that occurred between 2014 and 2019:
15
A total of 20 multifamily properties were surveyed in the county that operate with
a government subsidy. The table below summarizes the distribution of subsidized
projects (both with and without Tax Credits) in Buncombe County.
Subsidized Tax Credit
Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant
One-Bedroom 1.0 165 51.4% 0 0.0%
Two-Bedroom 1.0 118 36.8% 0 0.0%
Two-Bedroom 1.5 11 3.4% 0 0.0%
Three-Bedroom 1.0 16 5.0% 0 0.0%
Four-Bedroom 1.5 11 3.4% 0 0.0%
Total Subsidized Tax Credit 321 100.0%0 0.0%
Government-Subsidized
Bedroom Baths Units Distribution Vacancy % Vacant
Studio 1.0 90 6.0% 0 0.0%
One-Bedroom 1.0 579 38.3% 0 0.0%
Two-Bedroom 1.0 464 30.7% 2 0.4%
Two-Bedroom 1.5 49 3.2% 0 0.0%
Three-Bedroom 1.0 238 15.8% 0 0.0%
Three-Bedroom 1.5 24 1.6% 0 0.0%
Four-Bedroom 1.0 20 1.3% 0 0.0%
Four-Bedroom 1.5 36 2.4% 0 0.0%
Five-Bedroom 1.5 10 0.7% 0 0.0%
Total Subsidized 1,510 100.0%2 0.1%
The subsidized Tax Credit units are 100.0% occupied and the government-
subsidized units are 99.9% occupied, with a total of only two vacant units among
the overall total of 1,831. According to management at the surveyed subsidized
projects, most of these properties have long wait lists. As such, there continues to
be clear pent-up demand for multifamily rental housing product for very low-
income households.
Another resource residents can use that enables them to reasonably afford rental
housing is through Housing Choice Vouchers, which allows residents to pay 30%
of their income towards housing. These vouchers are issued by the local housing
authority. According to a representative with the Housing Authority of the City of
Asheville, there are approximately 2,781 Housing Choice Voucher holders within
the housing authority’s jurisdiction and 1,442 people currently on the waiting list
for additional vouchers. The waiting list is open. Annual turnover is estimated at
41 households, indicating minimal turnover and long waits for households seeking
vouchers. This reflects the continuing need for Housing Choice Voucher
assistance.
16
The following is a distribution of multifamily rental projects (market-rate, Tax
Credit and government-subsidized) and units surveyed by year built for Buncombe
County:
Year Built Projects Units Vacancy Rate
Before 1970 21 1,565 0.9%
1970 to 1979 14 2,241 0.8%
1980 to 1989 16 1,706 0.7%
1990 to 1999 10 1,067 4.6%
2000 to 2009 24 2,511 3.1%
2010 to 2014 9 1,272 2.2%
2015 9 1,543 4.3%
2016 2 288 5.2%
2017 9 1,633 7.8%
2018 7 1,282 24.3%
2019* 1 40 0.0%
*As of July
A substantial amount of new rental product has been added to the county over the
past several years. Since 2015, a total of at least 28 projects with 4,786 units have
been introduced into the Buncombe County market. As the preceding table
illustrates, most development periods or years have relatively low vacancy rates.
However, among the seven properties opening in 2018, the overall occupancy rate
is 24.3%, reflective of several projects still in their initial lease-up phase. Based
on information from management at some of the area’s newest properties, typical
absorption rates are around 14 (affordable/income restricted) to 18 (market-rate)
units per month. These are relatively fast monthly absorption rates and good
indications of a strong rental housing market.
17
The local government has made efforts to encourage the development of affordable
housing in the market. As a result of such efforts, there have been several mixed-
income projects developed in recent years that include a combination of both
market-rate and Tax Credit apartments, serving both market-rate renters and low-
income renters (generally earning up to 80% of Area Median Household Income).
Additionally, several projects are in the development pipeline (either under
construction or planned for development) that will include mixed-income units.
The table below summarizes the number of market-rate and affordable (income-
restricted) units within mixed-income properties in the market.
Mixed-Income Apartments
Type
Market-Rate
Units
Income-Restricted
Units Total Units
Established 1,461 226 1,687
Planned/Under Construction 612 142 754
Total 2,073 368 2,441
Of the 2,441 units either existing or in the development pipeline that are within
mixed-income projects, 368 are income restricted. These 368 units represent
15.1% of the overall units offered at these projects. The income restrictions
preserve these particular units for low-income households earning up to 80% of
AMHI and are developed through such things as the Low-Income Housing Tax
Credit (LIHTC) program, the Housing Trust Fund, or the Asheville Affordable
Housing Program. It is worth pointing out that over two-thirds of the affordable
housing units at these projects were developed after 2014, illustrating the
improved efforts to address rental affordability issues in the market.
In addition to the mixed-income projects offering units affordable to lower income
households, several projects have been built or are planned for development that
operate exclusively with income and rent restrictions (they include no market-rate
units). We identified and surveyed 24 apartment properties operating under the
programmatic requirements of the LIHTC program. These projects generally
serve up to 60% or 80% of AMHI. There are only two vacant units among these
properties, resulting in a very high overall occupancy rate of 99.8%. According to
property managers at these properties, most LIHTC projects operate with wait
lists. As such, there is pent-up demand for affordable rental housing in the market.
Since 2014, four properties operating exclusively under the LIHTC program have
been built in the market. These projects include a total of 315 units, of which 210
(66.7%) are general occupancy and 105 (33.3%) are senior restricted. These 315
newer LIHTC units represent 29.0% of the units operating exclusively under the
LIHTC program. This is a notable increase in the affordable rental housing stock.
Despite these recent additions in the affordable rental housing supply, limited
availability among such rentals still exists.
18
Non-Conventional Rental Housing
Buncombe County has a large number of non-conventional rentals which can come
in the form of detached single-family homes, duplexes, units over storefronts,
mobile homes, etc. As a result, we have conducted a sample survey of non-
conventional rentals within the county. Overall, a total of 118 individual units
were identified and inventoried. While this does not include all non-conventional
rentals in the market, we believe these properties are representative of the typical
non-conventional rental housing alternatives in the market.
The following table aggregates the 118 vacant non-conventional rental units
surveyed in Buncombe County by bedroom type.
Surveyed Non-Conventional Rental Supply
August 2019 November 2014
Bedroom
Vacant
Units
Rent
Range
Median
Rent
Median Rent
Per-Square-Foot
Median
Rent
Median Rent
Per-Square-Foot
Studio 4 $1,306 - $1,441 $1,361 $2.58 - -
One-Bedroom 17 $895 - $1,975 $1,200 $1.82 $575 $0.89
Two-Bedroom 35 $895 - $3,000 $1,575 $1.57 $950 $1.01
Three-Bedroom 44 $1,290 - $3,500 $1,700 $1.16 $1,225 $0.87
Four-Bedroom+ 18 $475 - $5,000 $2,248 $1.16 $1,750 $0.85
Total 118
As the preceding table illustrates, the rents for non-conventional rentals identified
range from $475 to $5,000. The median rent per-square-foot by bedroom type
ranges from $1.16 to $2.58, up from the rents of $0.85 to $1.01 per-square-foot
from 2014. It needs to be acknowledged that the non-conventional rentals
included in the current inventory are different than those of 2014. Regardless, this
inventory of available non-conventional rentals illustrates that most such rentals
have rents of $1,200 or more per month and may be difficult for many of the area
households to afford.
The rental rates of non-conventional rentals are generally comparable to most
market-rate multifamily apartments surveyed in the county. However, when
utilities are considered, as most non-conventional rentals require tenants to pay all
utilities, the rental housing costs of non-conventional rentals are generally higher
than multifamily apartments. When also considering that a much larger share of
the non-conventional product was built prior to 1980 and their amenity packages
are relatively limited, it would appear the non-conventional rentals represent less
of a value than most multifamily apartments in the market. However, given the
relatively limited number of vacant units among the more affordable multifamily
apartments, many low-income households are likely forced to choose from the
non-conventional housing alternatives.
The map on the following page illustrates the location of non-conventional rentals
identified as available in the market.
19
20
Vacation Rental Housing
Buncombe County has a large number of vacation rentals which are typically in
the form of cabins, detached single-family homes, condominiums, etc. As a result,
we have conducted a sample survey of vacation rentals within the county.
Overall, a total of 56 individual units were identified and surveyed. While this
does not include all vacation rentals in the market, we believe these properties are
representative of the typical vacation rental housing alternatives in the market.
The following table aggregates the 56 vacant/available vacation rental units
surveyed in the county by bedroom type. The current (August 2019) data is
compared with data collected during the original (November 2014) study of the
county. It should be noted that while most rents are charged on a daily or weekly
basis, rents are shown and analyzed on a monthly basis.
Surveyed Vacation Rental Supply
August 2019 November 2014
Bedroom Vacant Units Rent Range Median Rent Rent Range Median Rent
One-Bedroom 3 $1,764 - $3,924 $1,825 $1,620 - $28,500 $4,575
Two-Bedroom 39 $1,734 - $7,422 $3,255 $2,400 - $12,720 $5,250
Three-Bedroom 13 $2,342 - $8,425 $3,954 $3,750 - $16,260 $6,300
Four-Bedroom+ 1 $2,920 - $2,920 $2,920 $4,320 - $75,705 $10,965
Total 56
As the preceding table illustrates, the rents for inventoried vacation rentals range
from $1,825 to $3,954. These median rents are much lower than the median rents
from 2014. While the median rents have decreased, they still are well above most
of the multifamily rental alternatives surveyed in the market. As a result, vacation
rentals are generally not affordable to most households seeking rental housing on a
long-term basis. However, due to this rent differential, such housing may appeal
to owners of traditional, long-term rentals who may want to convert their housing
to vacation rentals and thereby reduce the inventory of rental stock available to
people seeking long-term rentals in the area. This posses a risk to have some long-
term rentals removed from the market.
Note: we were unable to map any of the vacation rentals as their addresses were
not available.
21
b. Owner For-Sale Housing
Bowen National Research, through a review of the Multiple Listing Service
information for Buncombe County, identified both historical (sold since 2010) for-
sale residential data and currently available for-sale housing stock.
The following table summarizes the available and recently sold (since January
2010) housing stock for Buncombe County.
Sold/Currently Available For-Sale Housing Supply – Buncombe County
Status Homes Median Price
Sold* 29,970 $245,000
Available 1,300 $438,471
Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty
*Sales from Jan. 1, 2010 to Jul. 31, 2019
There were 29,970 homes sold since 2010 and 1,300 homes currently available in
Buncombe County.
Historical Sales
The following table includes a summary of annual for-sale residential transactions
that occurred within Buncombe County since 2010. It should be noted that the
2019 sales cover only the first seven months of the year.
Owner For-Sale Housing by Year Sold
Year
Units Sold Median Price Sold
Number Change Price Change
2010 2,174 - $199,900 -
2011 2,262 4.0% $188,000 -6.0%
2012 2,716 20.1% $196,000 4.3%
2013 3,365 23.9% $206,608 5.4%
2014 3,573 6.2% $215,000 4.1%
2015 3,354 -6.1% $240,000 11.6%
2016 3,563 6.2% $265,000 10.4%
2017 3,561 -0.1% $285,000 7.5%
2018 3,365 -5.5% $303,000 6.3%
2019* 2,037 - $315,000 4.0%
Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty
*Sales as of July 31, 2019
Home sales activity within the county has remained relatively steady since 2013,
experiencing an average sales pace around 3,300 to 3,600 homes annually over the
past six years. Sales activity for 2019 is on pace for nearly 3,500 home sales,
continuing the trend of stable sales activity recently experienced in the market.
The county has experienced rising median sales prices over the past eight years.
The current median home sales price of $315,000 represents a 10-year high. The
positive trends among sales volume and sales prices are good indications of a
healthy and stable for-sale housing market in Buncombe County.
22
The following graphs illustrate the overall annual number of homes sold and
median sales prices for Buncombe County since 2010 (2019 was excluded because
only partial year data is available).
23
The distribution of homes recently sold by price for the county is summarized in
the table below.
Buncombe County
Sales History by Price
(Jan. 1, 2010 to Jul. 31, 2019)
Sale Price
Number
Sold
Percent of
Supply
Average Days
on Market
Up to $99,999 2,182 7.3% 130
$100,000 to $199,999 8,355 27.9% 113
$200,000 to $299,999 8,825 29.4% 94
$300,000 to $399,999 4,776 15.9% 100
$400,000 to $499,999 2,484 8.3% 107
$500,000+ 3,348 11.2% 159
Total 29,970 100.0% 111
Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty
As the preceding table illustrates, home sales by price point within the county
since 2010 were primarily concentrated among product priced between $200,000
and $299,999 (29.4%). Product priced between $100,000 and $199,999 has also
been very active, with 27.9% of the product sold within this price range. The
product within these two price ranges have been selling quickly, as evidenced by
the fact that the average days on market (number of days a home is listed before it
is sold) are 113 days or fewer. Interestingly, homes priced at $300,000 to
$499,999 have also had a large volume of product sold at relatively rapid rates
(generally around 100 days on market).
In an effort to understand the changing home buying trends, we have compared
historical sales of 2010 to 2014 with sales from 2015 to 2019 (through July) in the
following table.
Buncombe County
Sales History by Price
Sale Price
(Jan. 1, 2010 to Dec. 31, 2014) (Jan. 1, 2015 to Jul. 31, 2019)
Number
Sold
Percent of
Supply
Average
Days on
Market
Number
Sold
Percent of
Supply
Average
Days on
Market
Up to $99,999 1,623 11.5% 143 559 3.5% 89
$100,000 to $199,999 5,286 37.5% 141 3,069 19.3% 64
$200,000 to $299,999 3,550 25.2% 150 5,275 33.2% 56
$300,000 to $399,999 1,699 12.1% 162 3,077 19.4% 65
$400,000 to $499,999 832 5.9% 166 1,652 10.4% 77
$500,000+ 1,100 7.8% 258 2,248 14.2% 110
Total 14,090 100.0% 157 15,880 100.0% 70
Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty
Home sales activity since 2015 has changed significantly from the preceding five-
year period (2010 to 2014) in Buncombe County. Specifically, home sales of
product priced $300,000 and higher have increased from 25.8% of all sales
between 2010 and 2014 to 44.0% since 2015.
24
The graphs below illustrate the share of homes sold by price point for 2014 and
2019 and the average number of days on market by price for 2014 and 2019.
As these graphs illustrate, the for-sale housing market has experienced a shift
towards higher priced homes, yet the average number of days on market has
decreased significantly over the past five years.
25
A map of the historical (2010 to 2019) home sales identified in the county is
shown below:
Available Supply
The table below summarizes the distribution of available for-sale residential units
by price point for Buncombe County.
Buncombe County
Available For-Sale Housing by Price
List Price
November 21, 2014 As of July 31, 2019
Number
Available
Percent
of
Supply
Average
Days on
Market
Number
Available
Percent
of
Supply
Average
Days on
Market
Up to $99,999 76 4.4% N/A 6 0.5% 176
$100,000 to $199,999 384 22.2% N/A 57 4.4% 78
$200,000 to $299,999 403 23.2% N/A 214 16.5% 88
$300,000 to $399,999 254 14.6% N/A 286 22.0% 95
$400,000 to $499,999 166 9.6% N/A 206 15.8% 124
$500,000+ 451 26.0% N/A 531 40.8% 169
Total 1,734 100.0% N/A 1,300 100.0% 128
Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty
N/A – Not Available
26
The 1,300 housing units currently available for purchase in the county is 434 fewer
than there were in late 2014, representing a decrease of 25.0%. The available
inventory of product priced under $200,000 has diminished to just 63 units, down
from 460 homes at these price points in 2014. Demand for product priced between
$100,000 and $199,999 remains rather strong, as evidenced by the average days on
market of just 78 for such product. Meanwhile, higher priced product, generally at
$400,000 or higher, has increased dramatically. This price point now represents
56.6% of the available inventory (up from 35.6% in 2014). With a significantly
diminishing overall supply of available product, the housing market’s limited
supply has likely contributed to the continued increases in home prices. Moreover,
with the lower priced (under $200,000) product virtually non-existent, lower
income households generally earning below $60,000 have very limited choices.
The distribution of available homes by year built for the county is summarized in
the table below.
Buncombe County
Available For-Sale Housing by Year Built (As of July 31, 2019)
Year Built
Number
Available
Average
Beds/Baths
Average
Square
Feet
Price
Range
Median
List Price
Median
Price per
Sq. Ft.
Average
Days on
Market
Before 1950 160 3/2.5 2,129 $89,900 - $3,995,000 $377,000 $247.42 111
1950 to 1959 88 2/2.0 1,805 $33,000 - $1,490,000 $354,000 $226.14 105
1960 to 1969 88 3/2.5 1,991 $110,000 - $1,395,000 $327,450 $193.19 95
1970 to 1979 80 3/2.75 2,361 $138,500 - $2,750,000 $384,000 $193.33 95
1980 to 1989 101 3/3.0 2,559 $79,500 - $1,990,000 $420,000 $187.97 106
1990 to 1999 157 3/3.5 3,126 $82,000 - $3,350,000 $469,900 $172.86 112
2000 to 2009 277 4/3.75 3,631 $110,000 - $10,750,000 $575,000 $191.03 144
2010 to present 349 3/3.0 2,362 $158,000 - $4,250,000 $439,900 $226.62 159
Total 1,300 3/3.0 2,648 $33,000 - $10,750,000 $438,471 $211.14 128
Source: Multiple Listing Service/Keller Williams Realty
27
As shown in the preceding table, nearly one-half of the available for-sale housing
product in the county was built in 2000 or later. These newer homes are generally
priced well over $400,000, though even older product built prior to 1980 has a
median asking price of more than $300,000.
A map of the identified available for-sale housing stock is illustrated below:
c. Planned & Proposed Residential Development
In order to assess housing development potential, we evaluated recent residential
building permit activity and identified residential projects in the development
pipeline for Buncombe County. Understanding the number of residential units and
the type of housing being considered for development in the county can assist in
determining how these projects are expected to meet the housing needs of the area.
28
Multifamily Apartments
Based on our interviews with local building and planning representatives, it was
determined that there are multiple housing projects planned within Buncombe
County. These planned developments, by location, are summarized as follows.
Multifamily – Asheville City Limits
Project Name & Address Type Units Developer Status/Details
Hawthorne at Mills Gap
60 Mills Gap Road
Asheville
Market-rate
& 10%
Affordable 256
Hawthorne Residential
Partners
Under Construction: High-end, luxury
development; One- thru three-bedrooms; Luxury
finishes in units and “class A” property amenities;
10% of units will set aside as affordable; ECD
spring 2020
Five Points Mixed Building
257 Broadway Street
Asheville Market-rate 46 White Point Partners
Under Construction: Site work is underway;
Five-story building; Some affordable units are
planned; Estimated rents $1,750 to $3,300; 4,700
sq. ft. commercial space; ECD fall 2019
Swannanoa Bend
(FKA Beaucatcher
Commons)
43 Simpson Street
Asheville Affordable 30 Kirk Booth Real Estate
Under Construction: All one-bedrooms for
those earning below 60% AMHI; Funded by
Housing Trust Funds; 40 units opened in Feb.
2019 and leased by April 2019; Rent is $ 619; No
onsite amenities; Remaining 30 units ECD
September 2019
River Mill Lofts
100 River Mill Drive
Asheville Market-rate 134 Southeast Management
Under Construction: 130 units opened in 2017,
134 units under construction; 40 one-bedrooms,
80 two-bedrooms, and 14 three-bedrooms;
Current units renting from $1,150 to $1,875; ECD
early 2020
ABCCM Transformation
Village
53 Rocky Ridge Road
Asheville
Subsidized
Transitional
&
Permanent
Supportive
Housing 152
Asheville Buncombe
Community Christian
Ministry (ABCCM)
Under construction: For homeless women and
children; Emergency shelter for short-term stay
(33 short-term apartments with a total of 90 beds)
and transitional housing units for women with
recovery from abuse issues, job skills will be
provided, and permanent supportive housing
units; Community and health center
White Oak Grove
275 and 281 Hazel Mill
Road
Asheville
Market-rate
& 10%
Affordable 113
Berltex Real Estate
Holdings, LLC
Planned: Approved February 2019; 10% of the
units (12) will meet the city’s standards for
affordability at 80% AMHI for 10 years;
Developer must provide bus passes for two years
for residents who request one; Construction is to
begin September 2019
Former Sears Site
3 S. Tunnel Road
Asheville
Mixed-Use
Market-rate
& 40%
Affordable 204
Seritage Growth
Properties
Proposed: In council review; $45 million
redevelopment project; Ten-story building;
Studios, one-, two- and three-bedroom units; If
built will have up to 10% of units affordable
below 80% AMHI; 114,000 sq. ft. retail space
with a ten screen, upscale theater, restaurants and
a plaza.
TBD – To be determined
N/A – Not Available
ECD – Estimated completion date
TRC – Technical Review Committee
BOA – Board of Adjustment
29
(Continued)
Multifamily – Asheville City Limits
Project Name & Address Type Units Developer Status/Details
Hillard Apartments
338-360 Hilliard Avenue
Asheville
Market-rate
&
Affordable 86
Kassinger Development
Group
Planned: Approved; 31 market-rate units and 16
units for those earning below 80% AMHI, 18
units at 60% AMHI; Hope to begin construction
in 2019 and complete by fall 2020
TBD
123 Haywood Street
Asheville Market-rate 18 N/A
Planned: Four-story building (3 residential
stories) over one-story parking garage
Lee Walker Heights
17 Wilbar Avenue
Asheville
Mixed-Use
Tax Credit
&
Subsidized 212
Asheville Housing
Authority & Mountain
Housing Opportunities
Planned: Demolition of public housing complex
to be replaced by new construction; 116 for those
at 60% AMHI, 96 units will be at 30% AMHI and
have Project Based Rental Assistance through
RAD Program; 11,000 square feet of commercial
space to be constructed at 50 Wilbar Ave.; Hope
to break ground in 2019 and ECD 2021
Lee Walker Heights Phase II
319 Biltmore Ave.
Asheville
Mixed-use
Tax Credit
&
Subsidized 310
Asheville Housing
Authority and Mountain
Housing Opportunities
Proposed: Phase II of Lee Walker Heights
replacement housing project; Also, to include
retail and commercial space. City owned property.
Tribute Project-Scattered
Sites
FKA Ledford Site
72 Asheland Avenue, 185
Coxe Avenue, 5 Federal
Alley
Asheville
Mixed-use
Market-rate
&
Affordable 541 Tribute Companies
Planned: Commercial space, office space and a
1,000-space parking deck; 541 units planned;
Possibly 20% of units to be affordable at 80%
AMHI; 973 parking spaces; Plan to begin
construction early 2020; Initial TRC meeting date
6/1/2019
Collier Avenue Apartment
11 Collier Avenue
Asheville Affordable 54
Colliers Avenue
Properties
Planned: A request for the review of a Level II
site plan to develop 54 residential units in 53,680
square feet, five-story building: 54 live-work lofts
and studio units. Plans not submitted.
Beacham’s Curve
Neighborhood
315 Haywood Road
Asheville Market-rate 24 Big Jake Enterprises
Planned: Three-phased project; Apartments will
be part of Phase III of this mixed-use development
and will consist of 24 units; Phases I and II
consist of two mixed-use condo buildings with ten
live/work units for sale; Construction of 18 one-
bedrooms and six two-bedrooms to begin spring
2019
TBD
45 South French Broad
Asheville
Mixed-use
Market-rate 22 Ball Family
Planned: In TRC; 43,582 square foot, three-story
commercial and residential expansion to an
existing one-story commercial building
Verde Vista Phase II
99999 Verde Vista Circle
Asheville
Market-rate
& 10%
Affordable 56
Pike Real Estate
Development
Planned: Six units affordable at 80% AMHI;
Addition to an existing development with 257
units that opened in 2012
Create 72 Broadway
99999 Broadway Street, 67
Market Street, and 61
Market Street
Asheville
Mixed-use
Affordable 6
BPR Properties and S&R
Investment LTD
Planned: In TRC: Nine-story, 184,000 square
foot mixed-use building with 24 condos, 150 hotel
rooms, retail and office space include six
workforce apartments for artists earning 30%
AMHI, renting for $500 monthly
Roberson-Smokey Park
Development
877 & 885 Smokey Park
Highway
Asheville
Mixed-use
Market-rate 20
Roberson Land
Development Co, LLC
Planned: In TRC Development Review for 20
residential units, 20,839 square feet of retail space
and 4,145 square feet of medical facility in seven
buildings
TBD – To be determined
N/A – Not Available
ECD – Estimated completion date
TRC – Technical Review Committee
BOA – Board of Adjustment
30
(Continued)
Multifamily – Asheville City Limits
Project Name & Address Type Units Developer Status/Details
Amaranth Apartments
1 Brookside Circle
Asheville Tax Credit 70 Workforce Homestead
Planned: In TRC Development review for a 70-
unit affordable housing multifamily apartment
complex; 52 units for families with incomes under
60% AMHI; 18 apartments set aside for
households at or below 30% AMHI. This project
will receive a $1.2 million Housing Trust Fund
TBD
296 Short Michigan Avenue
Asheville
Permanent
Supportive
Housing 11 Homewood Bound
Planned: Will rehabilitate five buildings with
eight, one-bedroom and three, two-bedroom units;
They will provide permanent supportive housing
for people experiencing homelessness
Sweet Grass Apartments
39 Bradley Branch Road
Asheville
Market-rate
& 10%
Affordable 255 Mtn-Comm, LLC
Under Construction: Preliminary grading
began May 2019; 26 units will be affordable for
15 years for earners below 80% AMHI
TBD – To be determined
N/A – Not Available
ECD – Estimated completion date
TRC – Technical Review Committee
BOA – Board of Adjustment
Multifamily – Buncombe County (Outside Asheville City Limits)
Project Name & Address Type Units Developer Status/Details
Enclave-Piney Mountain
Apartments
85 Piney Mountain Drive
Asheville (Buncombe
County) Market-rate 200 McCall Capital
Planned: Conditional use permit applied for
March 2019
Reflection Pointe
812 New Leicester Highway
Asheville (Buncombe
County)
Market-rate
&
Affordable 270 Southwood Realty
Planned: BOA approved May 2019 for 10 three-
story buildings and 30 detached garages, 473
parking spaces; Clubhouse and pool; 81 units will
be affordable workforce housing for those earning
below 80% AMHI
Hawthorne at Haywood
1951 Old Haywood
Asheville (Buncombe
County) Market-rate 240
Foggin-Powel Properties/
Hawthorne Residential
Partners
Planned: BOA approved 2018
Asheville Heights
251 Charlotte Highway
Asheville (Buncombe
County) Market-rate 192 NTPP Investments, LLC
Planned: BOA approved 2018; One- and two-
bedroom apartments with 405 parking spaces
Retreat at Arden Farms
539 Long Shoals Road
Arden Market-rate 318 Tynes Development
Planned: BOA approved; Rents proposed from
$1,000-$1,600; Hope to break ground by fall 2019
Riverstone at Long Shoals
556 Long Shoals Road
Arden Market-rate 96 Long Shoals Holdings
Planned: Existing property of 256 one- thru
three-bedrooms renting from $995 to $1,660;
Have plans for a Phase II
Villas at Avery Creek
260 Amethyst Circle
Arden Market-rate 255 Universal Development
Under Construction: One-bedroom garden units
and two- and three-bedroom townhomes renting
from $799 to $1,499; 109 units to be complete
August 2019 and are all preleased, remaining
units complete by June 2020
TBD – To be determined
N/A – Not Available
ECD – Estimated completion date
TRC – Technical Review Committee
BOA – Board of Adjustment
31
(Continued)
Multifamily – Buncombe County (Outside Asheville City Limits)
Project Name & Address Type Units Developer Status/Details
East Haven
2244 U.S. 70
Swannanoa Tax Credit 95
Mountain Housing
Opportunities
Under Construction: Ground broken spring
2019; One- thru three-bedrooms; Targeting those
earning below 30%, 50%, and 60% AMHI; 16
Home fund units, 19 units for the Integrated
Supportive Housing Program; Proposed rents
range from $257 to $697; Interior courtyard with
playground, picnic area, garden space, elevators,
community room, computer center, laundry
facilities, fitness room; ECD summer 2020
Jasper Apartments
1944 U.S. Highway 70
Swannanoa Tax Credit 100 Workforce Homestead
Planned: Applied for conditional use permit in
April 2019; Targeting those earning below 60%
AMHI; 22 one-bedrooms, 60 two-bedrooms, and
18 three-bedrooms in three-story buildings;
Clubhouse, playground, and picnic pavilion
Blue Ridge Crossing
Garrison Branch Road
adjacent to Monticello Road
and U.S. 25/70
Weaverville Market-rate 176 828 North, LLC
Under Construction: Preliminary plat approved;
Infrastructure installation currently ongoing
TBD
40 Doan Road
Weaverville Market-rate 16
MS Properties of
Weaverville LLC
Planned: BOA approved 2018 with five years
vested rights
Riverside Stump Dump
135 Monticello Road
Weaverville N/A 238 Crest Residential
Planned: Had recent voluntary annexation and
initial zoning for multifamily residential; Zoning
density and acreage present will support
approximately 238 units; In Plan Review
10 Newbridge Apartments
10 Newbridge Parkway
Woodfin Market-rate 40 Hawthorne Management
Under Construction: First 262 units completed
and rented; One-, two-, and three-bedrooms
renting from $950 to $1,935; Final 40 units ECD
summer 2019
TBD – To be determined
N/A – Not Available
ECD – Estimated completion date
TRC – Technical Review Committee
BOA – Board of Adjustment
Senior Facilities
According to planning and building representatives, there is currently one senior
living project planned and/or under construction within Buncombe County. This
property is summarized in the table that follows.
Project Name & Address Units Developer Status/Details
Julian Woods Retirement Community
213 Long Shoals Road and
433 Overlook Road Ext.
Asheville 130
Asheville Pentecostal
Holiness Church, C&B
Toothland of Overlook
Ext LLC
Planned: A request for the conditional zoning review of 130
dwelling units located in a three-story building located on 7.23
acres; Amenities will include a fitness center, theater, salon,
chapel; First TRC meeting June 2019
TRC – Technical Review Committee
32
For-Sale Housing
According to planning and building representatives, there are multiple for-sale
projects planned within the Buncombe County. These projects are summarized in
the table that follows.
For-sale Housing – Asheville City Limits
Subdivision/Condominium Units Product Type Developer Status/ Details
17 North Market
17 North Market Street
Asheville 14 Condominiums
Lawyers Bldg. of
Asheville Inc
Under Construction: Redevelopment of a
two-story building and will add two stories;
Two-bedroom/two-bath units at 1,267 sq. ft,
and reclaimed brick walls, reclaimed
hardwood floors, luxury finishes; List price
$899,900; Three units have been reserved.
Anticipated complete date late 2019
N/A
56 Hibriten Drive
Asheville 10
Single-Family
Homes N/A
Planned: TRC approved March 2019 for a
major subdivision and new road to create 10
lots, with an existing home remaining
N/A
156 Faircrest Road
Asheville 7
Single-Family
Homes Stephen Zarnowski
Planned: In TRC Development Review for
a seven-lot subdivision located on 22.25
acres
Abundance Run (FKA Orchard Trail)
99999 Old Haw Creek Road
Asheville 16
Single-Family
Homes Akin Properties, LLC
Planned: In TRC Development a 16-lot
subdivision located on 5.87 acres
Marsh Creek Subdivision
99999 New Leicester Highway
Asheville 22
Single-Family
Homes Kodagem, LLC
Planned: In TRC Development Review for
a 22-lot subdivision located on 5.47 acres
Birch Lane Subdivision
97, 95, and 99999 Birch Lane
Asheville 26
Single-Family
Homes Dalton Family
Planned: In TRC Development Review for
request for the review of a major
subdivision to create 26 residential lots
Peace and Moore Subdivision
61 and 57 Moore Avenue
Asheville 19
Single-Family
Homes
Reasonable
Development, LLC
Planned: In TRC Development Review
to create 12 cottage units and seven single-
family lots; Project is located on 1.95 acres
Create 82 Broadway
99999 Broadway Street, 67 Market
Street, and 61 Market Street
Asheville 31 Condominiums BPR Properties
Planned: A 150-room boutique hotel with
29 condominium units (one affordable) and
two affordable live/work units; Could be
completed in 2022
Riverwoods Subdivision
99999 Ferry Road
Asheville 389
Mixed-use,
Duplexes,
Condominiums,
Single-Family
Lots Ron Hirji
Planned: Council approved January 2019;
In TRC Development Review; Mixed-use
with 8,000 to 15,000 sq. ft. commercial
space, 94 duplexes, 36 condominiums, 4
live/work spaces, and 161 single-family lots
on 137 acres; 8% units will be affordable at
100 % AMHI; 188 SFH could sell for up to
$450,000; Affordable housing from some
of the 36 condominiums and listed near
$200,000; 188 duplexes and four live-work
units no prices available
North Bear Creek
99999 N Bear Creek Road
Asheville 20
Single-Family
Lots Marcus Barksdale
Planned: TRC approved; two-phase, 20-lot
single-family residential subdivision with
water and sewer extensions and new road
Reynolds Road Subdivision
50 and 99999 Reynolds Road
Asheville 6
Single-Family
Lots
Reasonable
Development, LLC.
Planned: In TRC Development Review of
a 7-lot major subdivision on 0.812 acres
TRC – Technical Review Committee
SFH – Single-Family Homes
33
(Continued)
For-sale Housing – Asheville City Limits
Subdivision/Condominium Units Product Type Developer Status/ Details
Lakewood Forest Subdivision
99999 Lakewood and 99999 Kenilworth
Road
Asheville 14
Single-Family
Lots
Cane Creek Vistas,
LLC
Planned: In TRC Development Review 14
lot subdivision on 2.46 acres
Rowhouse Development
199 Broadway Street
Asheville 20 Townhomes
Boulevard
Development Group
Planned: Approved; Luxury three-and-a-
half-story walk-ups, two- or three-car
garage, three- or four-bedrooms
Orange Blossom Subdivision
1 Orange Blossom Way
Asheville 6
Single-Family
Lots Mills Gap 537 LLC Planned: Approved
145 Biltmore
145 Biltmore Avenue
Asheville 34 Condominiums
Preserve Communities
NC LLC
Planned: In final TRC Development
Review; Luxury condos in seven-story
building; Four units will be penthouses;
One- and two-bedrooms with terraces at
$425 per sq. ft; All sold but eight units;
Some units may be short on vacation
rentals; One deeded parking space per unit,
can purchase a second parking space for
$50,000.
Bear Creek Homes
220 and 239 Bear Creek Road
Asheville 30
Single-Family
Lots Blossom & Huger, LLC Planned: Approved 2017
TBD
88 Southside Avenue
Asheville 18 Townhomes Peter Thom
Planned: In TRC Development Final
Review; Four-story townhome units on 0.89
acres; Proposed under $500,000
Mill Creek Townhome
85 Mills Gap Road
Asheville 16 Townhomes Ken Jackson
Planned: TRC Approved; complete the
build out of previously approved and
constructed townhomes; Existing three-
bedroom home built 2016 and sold for
$191,975; HOA fees $123
TRC – Technical Review Committee
SFH – Single-Family Homes
34
For-sale Housing – Buncombe County (Outside Ashville City Limits)
Subdivision/Condominium Units Product Type Developer Status/ Details
Hamrick Farms
Pin 9617-26-5961 (Owenby Road)
Asheville (Buncombe County) 69
Single-Family
Lots WH Hamrick Liv Trust Planned: Plat approved November 2018
Lance Road Subdivision
PIN 9633‐98‐0985 and 9633‐99‐7123
Asheville (Buncombe County) 95
Single-Family
Lots Delta Express, Inc
Planned: Plat approved with conditions
June 2018
144 Lover Grassy Branch Road
Asheville (Buncombe County) 12
Single-Family
Homes
Farmbound Holdings
LLC
Planned: Submitted plans to Buncombe
County June 2019
Old Haywood Road Project
Old Haywood Road
Asheville (Buncombe County) 98
Single-Family
Homes &
Townhomes
Asheville Area Habitat
for Humanity
Planned: BOA approved February 2019;
For households at or below 80% AMHI; 38
homes will be in Phase I; Plan to begin
construction; March 2020 with move ins
February 2023
Biltmore Terrace
37 Oakley Dogwood Drive
Asheville (Buncombe County) 80
Single-Family
Homes &
Townhomes
Biltmore Terrace
Development
Planned: 56 single-family homes and 24
townhomes
Pond Road Development
199 Pond Road
Asheville (Buncombe County) 240
Single-Family
Homes &
Townhomes
Serota Weaverville
LLC
Planned: BOA approved 2018 with five
years vested rights for 100 single-family
homes and 140 townhomes
Riverbend Forest
423 Moffitt Road
Asheville (Buncombe County) 23
Single-Family
Lots
RBF Development LLC
Mountain Commercial
Property Co. LLC Proposed: Plans submitted December 2018
Haywood Road Subdivision
1773 Old Haywood Road
Asheville (Buncombe County) 79
Single-Family
Homes John Hale
Planned: Lots are planned to be sold to
tenants and managed by a homeowner’s
association.
Preserve at Avery’s Creek
Owen Drive & Avery Creek Road
Arden 145
Single-Family
Homes &
Townhomes Fred Spiegel
Under Construction; 105 single-family
lots & 40 townhomes; Priced starting at
$549,000; Infrastructure is in place and
model homes are under construction
Birch Lane Subdivision
97, 95, and 99999 Birch Lane
Arden 26
Single-Family
Lots Daltons Planned: In TRC Review June 2019
Cliffs at Walnut Cove Phase 9
158 Walnut Valley Pkwy
Arden 62
Single-Family
Lots Urbana Cliffs
Planned: Submitted plans November 2018:
Plat approved with conditions; Homesites
from $150,000-$1.8 million+
Homes and Townhomes from $850,000-$4
million+
605 Old U.S. 70 East
Black Mountain 60
Single-Family
Lots
Laurel Wood
Associates LLC
Planned: BOA approved 2018; Lots will be
sold to homebuyers when infrastructure is
in place
Curry Court
1 Curry Court
Candler 11
Single-Family
Homes &
Townhomes
Asheville Area Habitat
for Humanity
Under Construction: One single-family
home is completed, and two are under
construction- all have home owners; Price
of SFH $206,000; Eight townhomes are
nearing completion; No price set on
townhomes; Monthly mortgage payment
will not exceed 30% of their income
TRC – Technical Review Committee
SFH – Single-Family Homes
BOA – Board of Adjustment
35
(Continued)
For-sale Housing – Buncombe County (Outside Ashville City Limits)
Subdivision/Condominium Units Product Type Developer Status/ Details
Liberty Oaks
99999 Bessie Luther Boulevard
Candler 111
Single-Family
Homes &
Townhomes Liberty Oaks Fund
Under Construction: 35 single-family Lots
in Phase 3, to begin 2022; 14 single-family
attached patio homes in Phase 2 to begin
2020; 62 three-bedrooms, 2.5 bath
townhomes with single car garages starting
at $203,000; Some townhomes are
completed with all completed by 2020
Holbrook Road Subdivision
65 Hartshorn Drive
Candler 151
Single-Family
Lots Holbrook Trust
Planned: Infrastructure construction
ongoing; Developer has five years vested
rights
Gudger Road Subdivision
26 Gudger Road
Candler 6
Single-Family
Lots Gudger Group, LLC Planned: Six-lot subdivision on 2.18 acres
Estates at Cane Creek
1805 Cane Creek Road
Fletcher 29
Single-Family
Lots Farm at Cane Creek
Planned: Submitted plans January 2019
and plat approved with conditions
705 Bee Tree Road
Swannanoa 11
Single-Family
Homes
Hazel Creek
Construction
Planned: BOA approved January 2019;
Two- and three-bedroom homes with
attached garages;
Lillie Farm Cove
Lillie Farm Lane, Yarrow Meadow Road,
Declan Drive each adjacent to North
Main Street
Weaverville 46
Single-Family
Homes
Mountain Housing
Opportunities
Under Construction: 75% complete;
1,200-square-foot, three-bedroom; Four-
bedroom @ 1,428 sq. ft. sold $259,000
Amblers Chase
Amblers Knoll Road near intersection
Reems Creek Road and Eller Cove Road
Weaverville 21
Single-Family
Lots Amblers Chase LLC
Planned: Preliminary plat approved with
infrastructure installation underway
Northridge Commons Townhouses
Benedict Lane and Gregory Court
adjacent to Monticello Road
Weaverville 53 Townhomes
Northridge Commons
Investors, LLC
Under Construction: Preliminary plat
approved with infrastructure installation
underway
TRC – Technical Review Committee
SFH – Single-Family Homes
BOA – Board of Adjustment
Note: We did not include any planned subdivisions that had five or fewer single-
family lots planned.
36
F. HOUSING GAP ESTIMATES
Bowen National Research conducted housing gap analyses for rental and for-sale
housing for the subject county. The housing gap estimates include new household
growth, units required for a balanced market, households living in substandard
housing (replacement housing), and units in the development pipeline. This estimate
is considered a representation of the housing shortage in the market and indicative of
the more immediate housing requirements of the market. Our estimates consider five
income stratifications for the rental analysis and three for the for-sale analysis. For the
rental gap analysis, these stratifications include households with incomes of up to 30%
of Area Median Household Income (AMHI), households with incomes between 31%
and 50% of AMHI, between 51% and 80% of AMHI, between 80% and 120% of
AMHI, and above 120% of AMHI. The for-sale gap analysis includes stratifications
of up to 80% of AMHI, 81% to 120% of AMHI and above 120% of AMHI.
The demand components included in the housing gap estimates for each of the two
housing types (rental and for-sale) are listed as follows:
Housing Gap Analysis Components
Rental Housing Owner Housing
Renter Household Growth Owner Household Growth
Units Required for a Balanced Market Units Required for a Balanced Market
Replacement of Substandard Housing* Replacement of Substandard Housing*
Commuter Support Commuter Support
Step-Down Support** Step-Down Support**
Pipeline Development^ Pipeline Development^
*Includes units that lack complete indoor plumbing and overcrowded housing
**Includes portion of higher-income households that can afford higher-priced product but choose lower priced
product
^Units under construction, permitted, planned or proposed
The demand factors for each housing segment at the various income stratifications are
combined. Any product confirmed to be in the development pipeline is deducted from
the various demand estimates, yielding a housing gap estimate. These gaps represent
the number of new households that may need housing and/or the number of existing
households that currently live in housing that needs replaced to relieve occupants of
such things as overcrowded or substandard housing conditions. Data used for these
various demand components originates from the demographic analysis portion of this
study.
37
Rental Housing Gap Analysis
The table below summarizes the rental housing gap estimates by the various income
segments and corresponding rental rates.
Demand
Component
Rental Housing Gap Estimates
AMHI <30% 30%-50% 51%-80% 81%-120% 121%+
Income <$20k $20k-$35k $36k-$55k $56k-$80k $81k+
Rent <$500 $500-$874 $875-$1,374 $1,375-$1,999 $2,000+
New Households (2018-2023) -658 -263 845 439 1,366
Balanced Market 576 436 407 58 55
Substandard Housing 787 306 183 55 31
Commuter Support 696 582 516 936 288
Step-Down Support 0 85 47 961 -1,093
Development Pipeline -277 -102 -968 -1,545 -496
Total Housing Gap 1,124 1,044 1,030 904 151
AMHI – Area Median Household Income
While there is a housing gap deficit among each of the income segments, the largest is
among the lowest income segment. Although most of the product in the development
pipeline (either under construction or planned) falls within the $875 to $1,999 rent
ranges, there still remains demand for housing at this price level. Based on these
estimates, while a variety of product types by rent level can be supported, the greatest
gaps appear to be for housing that serves lower-income households and workforce
households.
38
For-Sale Housing Gap Analysis
The table below summarizes the for-sale housing gap estimates by the various income
segments and corresponding price points.
Demand
Component
For-Sale Housing Gap Estimates
AMHI <80% 81%-120% 121%+
Income <$55k $56k-$80k $81k+
Home Price <$200,000 $200,000-$299,999 $300,000+
New Households (2018-2023) -242 1,620 3,696
Balanced Market 257 65 -508
Substandard Housing 189 56 32
Commuter Support 209 321 123
Step-Down Support 486 739 -739
Development Pipeline -54 -128 -377
Total Housing Gap 845 2,673 2,227
AMHI – Area Median Household Income
As shown in the preceding owner housing gap analysis, the greatest housing gap is for
product priced between $200,000 and $299,999, with a nearly equal housing gap for
housing priced at $300,000 and higher. This particular gap is primarily driven by the
new household growth projected through 2023. While smaller in scale, there still
remains a notable housing gap for product priced under $200,000. The demand for the
lower-priced project originates from a variety of sources, with a notable amount
resulting from the lack of available product at this price range.