HomeMy WebLinkAboutNHC Housing Needs Assessment Final 2025Root Policy Research
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PREPARED FOR: Draft:
New Hanover County, NC 4/14/2025
New Hanover
County
Housing Needs
Assessment
Table of Contents
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH i
ES. Executive Summary
Introduction
Report Context and Geography ......................................................................................... 1
Data Sources and Methodology ........................................................................................ 3
I. Demographic and Economic Trends
Key Findings ....................................................................................................................... I–1
Population .......................................................................................................................... I–2
Households and Homeownership ................................................................................. I–8
University Enrollment, Employment, and Commuting .............................................. I–17
Income, Wages, and Poverty ......................................................................................... I–24
Demographic Forecasts ................................................................................................. I–32
II. Housing Supply and Market Trends
Key Findings ...................................................................................................................... II–1
Housing Production Trends ........................................................................................... II–3
Housing Stock ................................................................................................................... II–6
Housing Supply, Occupancy, and Demand ................................................................ II–10
Rental Market Trends .................................................................................................... II–22
Affordable Housing Inventory ...................................................................................... II–32
Home Sales Market Trends .......................................................................................... II–37
Changes in Rents, Home Prices, and Incomes .......................................................... II–43
III. Housing Needs
Background: Defining Affordability .............................................................................. III–1
Key Findings ..................................................................................................................... III–2
Cost Burden ..................................................................................................................... III–3
Rental Affordability ......................................................................................................... III–7
Purchase Affordability ..................................................................................................III–13
Affordability Gaps Analysis for Current Residents ...................................................III–24
Barriers to Homeownership ........................................................................................III–31
Homelessness ...............................................................................................................III–37
Future Housing Demand & Needs .............................................................................III–43
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
NEW HANOVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS
ASSESSMENT
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, NEW HANOVER COUNTY HNA PAGE 1
Introduction
The Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) is a component of
Destination 2050: New Hanover County’s Comprehensive Plan
update, designed to 1) present demographic trends; 2) identify
changes in the supply of and demand for housing; and 3)
identify current and future housing gaps in New Hanover
County. This report documents current and future housing
needs through data analysis.
Defining and Measuring “Affordability”
The most common definition of housing affordability is linked
to industry standards. The federal government considers
housing as affordable when the housing payment—the rent or
mortgage payment plus taxes and utilities—consumes 30% or
less of a household’s gross income. Households paying more
than 30% are “cost burdened.” Households experiencing cost
burden have less money to spend on other essentials like
healthcare, education, groceries, and transportation—adversely
affecting their household well-being, limiting their economic
growth potential, and constraining local spending. Households
paying more than 50% are “severely cost burdened” and
considered at risk of homelessness.
A balanced housing stock accommodates a full “life cycle
community”—where there are affordable housing options for
each stage of life from career starters through retirees—which
in turn supports the local economy and contributes to New
Hanover County’s community culture.
Report
Organization:
I. Demographic Trends
II. Housing Supply & Demand
III. Housing Needs Analysis
Income & AMI
The HNA analysis uses both
household income ranges and “Area
Median Income (AMI).” AMI is a
measure of income based on the
median, or middle income
household.
Housing programs base program
eligibility on income limits that are
represented as percentages of AMI.
HUD publishes current-year income
limits based on an internal
calculation that estimates AMIs by
household size and region. The table
below presents 2024 AMI limits for a
2-person household in New Hanover
County based on the county’s
average household size (2.20
members/household).
30% AMI
Extremely low income $23,800
50% AMI
Very low income $39,700
80% AMI
Low income $63,500
100% AMI
Moderate income $79,400
120% AMI
Moderate income $95,280
AMI Level
2024 Income
Limits
(2-person HH)
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, NEW HANOVER COUNTY HNA PAGE 2
The graphic below illustrates common pathways by which residents move across the housing
continuum. Not all households individually experience each point on the continuum; but all
communities have members experiencing each point on the continuum and need shelter or housing
options that open housing pathways and facilitate community stability. Mobility across the housing
continuum is driven by both individual/household circumstances as well as systemic conditions, which
can create structural barriers for historically marginalized populations.
Economic consequences of unstable housing. Housing stability occurs when markets are
free of discrimination and households can consistently afford to pay their rent or mortgage without
cutting back on essential expenses like food, or health care. When households have stable housing, they
can contribute to their local economy, support the economic growth of their families, and manage their
families’ health and well-being. Rising housing costs have increased the number of New Hanover County
households that are housing unstable. There are many negative consequences of housing instability
that have broader economic effects, such as:
Low income renters who are cost burdened or severely cost burdened may be leave the county due
to rising housing costs or become homeless;
Low income homeowners cannot make needed improvements to preserve the condition of their
homes and enable them to age in place;
Moderate income renters have difficulty achieving ownership and passing on wealth to their
families so may leave the county for more affordable options;
As households spend higher proportions of their income on housing, they spend less in the local
community—impacting local businesses as well as local sales tax revenue; and
Existing businesses may have difficulty finding workers.
The Housing Continuum
The HNA is designed to evaluate and quantify housing needs across the full
spectrum of housing—from homelessness to market-rate homeownership.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, NEW HANOVER COUNTY HNA PAGE 3
Population: New Hanover County’s population saw strong growth most years since 2010, with the
Balance of County growing faster than Wilmington. Growth in Brunswick and Pender Counties outpaced
New Hanover County, though all three counties had higher population growth than the state overall.
Population growth is expected to continue at a similar rate, reaching 328,626 by 2050. The county’s
population is aging, and forecasts show continued growth in the senior population. Racial and ethnic
diversity increased by about 2 percentage points since 2018: minority groups now represent 25% of the
overall county population. Residents are increasingly likely to have at least a bachelor’s degree.
Homeownership rates in New Hanover County, Wilmington, and the Balance of County increased
since 2018 as homeownership was stable in N.C.
overall. However, households earning $50,000 to
$150,000 have seen decreases in ownership as the
market offerings affordable to them decline.
Racial and ethnic disparities in homeownership
persist. Homeownership rates are 65-67% for non-
Hispanic White and Asian households and at least
ten points lower for all other groups. Mortgage loan
denials are disproportionately high for racial/ethnic
minorities, even accounting for income differences.
Income shifts over the last five years
show a sharp rise in the number and
proportion of New Hanover County
households earning more than
$75,000/year. The median income for
households in the county increased by
52% from $52,200 in 2018 to $79,500 in
2023—a growth much faster than that of
the U.S. (+25%), North Carolina (+31%),
and all peer communities.
Migration: Households moving to New
Hanover County had higher average incomes
than households leaving each year since
2015-2016. Moderate income households are
moving to the county as lower income
households leave the county (likely for more
affordable areas), contributing to the county’s
above-average increases in income (these are
also due to rising wages).
Figure ES-1. Homeownership by Income,
New Hanover County
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS and Root Policy Research.
Figure ES-2. Household Income Distribution, New
Hanover County
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS and Root Policy Research.
Figure ES-3. Average Income of In-Migrating and
Out-Migrating Households, New Hanover County
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS and Root Policy Research.
Demographic Trends
Growing and aging population; income and ownership shifts driven by both
wage and migration trends (people moving in- and out- of the county).
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, NEW HANOVER COUNTY HNA PAGE 4
Poverty. The county’s poverty rate decreased from 18% in 2010 to 11% by 2021, inching back to 12%
by 2023. Poverty decreased in Wilmington and increased in the Balance of County in recent years,
converging near the county’s 12% in 2023.
Employment. There are currently about 129,000 jobs in
New Hanover County. Job growth averaged 2-3% per year
from 2010 through 2019 and has accelerated since 2021 (4-5%
each year). The fastest growing employment industries in the
past five years (2018-2023) were education and healthcare,
financial activities, and construction.
Wages. The average wage across industries increased by
30% from 2018 to 2023, exceeding national inflation (+22%).
Average wage growth between 2018 and 2023 varied widely
by employment industry: wages increased by as little as 6% in Manufacturing and up to 55% in
Information. It is worth noting that wages grew faster than average in the lowest paying industries,
including leisure and hospitality (wages +39%) and “other services” (+41%).
Still, wage gains failed to keep up with housing prices—rents rose 38%, home prices rose 66%, and the
income required to afford a typical home more than doubled (+111%) due to higher interest rates.
Work from Home & Commuting. The COVID-19 pandemic increased the share of workers
working from home across the country and in New Hanover County—11% of workers in 2019 worked
from home compared to 21% in 2023. Balance of County residents are slightly more likely than
Wilmington residents to work from home.
The proportion of jobs filled by in-commuters has shifted up slightly over the past few years. Nearly half
of workers in the county are commuting from outside the county—most commonly from Brunswick and
Pender Counties.
Figure ES-4. Total Employment,
New Hanover County
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Figure ES-5.
% of Jobs Filled by In-Commuters
Figure ES-6.
Commuting Dynamics, New Hanover County, 2022
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.
Economic Trends
Strong job growth and rising wages, though income gains still lag housing cost
growth. Increases in working from home and in-commuting from other counties.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, NEW HANOVER COUNTY HNA PAGE 5
Housing stock and production. Housing production lagged employment and household
growth in New Hanover County from 2013 to 2018 but in more recent years (2018 to 2023) production
has kept up with job growth and new households. Single family detached homes make up a majority of
homes (57%) in the County, despite strong multifamily construction since 2018.
Figure ES-7. Building Permits, 1980-2023 and Housing Stock, 2023
Source: U.S. Census Building Permits Survey and Root Policy Research.
Rental market. Between 2018 and 2023, median gross rent increased by 38% in New Hanover
County (from $1,064 to $1,466), by 44% in Wilmington, and by 26% in the balance of county. Typical
market rate asking rent—what renters would find in searching for a unit without rental assistance—was
higher at $1,702 in 2023, up 57% from 2018. Median renter income increased by 45% between 2018 and
2023, lagging growth in typical asking rent but outpacing growth in median gross rent. More than half
(53%) of the county’s rental units cost less than $1,000/month in 2018; by 2023, this fell to 21%. The
share of units priced at or above $1,250 more than doubled from 25% in 2018 to 58% in 2023.
Figure ES-8.
Rent Distribution,
2018-2023
Source:
5-year ACS and Root Policy
Research.
Housing Stock and Market Trends
Residential construction starts to keep pace with job and household growth.
Growing multifamily inventory. Rising renter incomes lag market rent increases.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, NEW HANOVER COUNTY HNA PAGE 6
Home purchase market. The median sale
price in New Hanover County increased by 45% from
$287,000 in 2020 to $415,000 in 2023. Prices
increased at similar rates in Wilmington and the
balance of county, and median prices remain higher
in the balance of county than in Wilmington. Home
price increases outpaced income gains since 2020,
and rising interest rates have a severe impact on
affordability. While condos and townhomes offer
more affordability, they constitute a smaller share of
total sales (24%) than more expensive single family
detached homes (75%).
Since 2020, the proportion of home sales affordable
to the median household (earning 100% AMI)
dropped from 50% to 5% due to rising prices and declining purchasing power at higher interest rates.
Figure ES-10. Share of
Home Sales Affordable
by AMI Level in 2020
and 2023
Source:
New Hanover County Assessor, FRED from
the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, HUD 2-
Person AMI Limits, and Root Policy
Research.
Vacancy and STRs. Residential vacancy rates have been stable overall at 13-14% in the county
since 2018, though there has been a slight increase in the share of vacant units dedicated to seasonal or
vacation use, particularly in the balance of county. Seasonally occupied units—including second homes
and short term rentals—make up 7% of all units countywide, 3% in Wilmington, and 12% in the balance
of county.
Within the balance of county, seasonally
occupied homes constitute 42% of total
housing units in the beach towns of Carolina
Beach, Kure Beach, and Wrightsville Beach
and 2% of total units in the unincorporated
county. Seasonally occupied homes constrain
supply and contribute to already-rising prices
in the beach towns.
Figure ES-9. Median Home Price vs.
Affordable Price at Median HH Income
Source: 2023 1-year ACS estimates, New Hanover County Assessor, Federal
Reserve of St. Louis, and Root Policy Research.
Figure ES-11.
Share of
Vacant Units
Vacant for
Seasonal Use
Source:
2023 1-year ACS
estimates.
Housing Stock and Market Trends (continued)…
Price growth and interest rate hikes cause dramatic loss in purchase affordability.
Second homes and STRs may limit supply and raise prices in select areas.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, NEW HANOVER COUNTY HNA PAGE 7
Workforce housing affordability. Declining purchase affordability has critical implications for
the county’s essential workforce. A single earner New Hanover County Schools teacher could have
afforded 21% of homes sold in the county in 2020 but only 1% of homes sold in 2023. As of 2023,
median priced homes are unaffordable to single earner households earning average wages in every
industry in New Hanover County. In the rental market, median rent is unaffordable to single earners
earning average wages in four industries which account for 42% of the county’s employment.
Cost Burden. Approximately 35,000 New Hanover County households—including 53% of renters and
21% of owners—pay more than 30% of their gross income for housing and are cost burdened. Cost
burden has increased for renters at all incomes—and especially for renters earning $35,000 to $74,999.
Current “Catch-up” Needs—mismatches in existing supply and demand by
price-point: The current “catch-up” gaps analysis indicates that affordability needs for current
households are concentrated below 50% AMI in the rental market and below 120% AMI in the for-sale
market (though for-sale needs persist up to 150% AMI).
Collectively, there is an affordability shortage of 7,377 units in New Hanover County (6,267 units in
Wilmington and 1,795 units in the balance of county) for renters earning less than 50% AMI, even
after accounting for affordable, income restricted inventory. The most acute needs are for
households earning less than 30% AMI.
Thirty-nine percent of New Hanover County renters have incomes between 50% and 120% of AMI—
a range historically in consideration for first-time home purchase. However, only 12% of homes
sold in the county in 2022/23 were in their price range. Potential buyers do not see proportional
affordability in the market unless they have incomes over 150% AMI.
Figure ES-12.
Current
Rental
Affordability
Gaps.
Source: 2023 ACS and
Root Policy Research.
Figure ES-13.
Current For-
Sale
Affordability
Gaps.
Source: 2023 ACS,
Assessor, and Root
Policy Research.
Current affordability gaps can be addressed either through new production of housing units at
the needed price points and/or through subsidies of existing units.
Housing Affordability & Needs
Rising renter cost burden across incomes, mismatches in supply and
demand impacting renters earning <50% AMI most severely.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, NEW HANOVER COUNTY HNA PAGE 8
Homelessness. Based on PIT Count data, 497 people were
experiencing homelessness in New Hanover County on a single
night in January 2024. Homelessness decreased slightly since
2023 but has increased significantly since 2020–2022 when 247-
318 people were counted as homeless each year. Unsheltered
homelessness has increased, partially due to the closure and
continuing reconstruction of a local shelter.
HMIS data show that African American residents are dramatically
overrepresented in the homeless population (35%) relative to
their share of the total population (10%) in New Hanover, Pender,
and Brunswick counties.
According to McKinney-Vento data, which use a broader
definition of homelessness to measure homelessness among
public school students, 910 pre-K to 12th grade New Hanover County Schools students experienced
homelessness in 2023-2024, down from 1,264 students in 2022-2023. Approximately 3.6% of pre-K to
12th grade students in the district are experiencing homelessness, compared to 1.9% of students in
North Carolina public schools overall.
Saving for a down payment is increasingly challenging as home prices rise. In order to avoid
mortgage insurance on a median priced home in 2023, households need to save $78,050 for a down
payment in Wilmington and $86,400 in the balance of county.
Access to mortgage financing presents another barrier to homeownership. Debt to income
ratio is the most frequently given denial reason for mortgage loan applicants of all income levels and all
races and ethnicities. Credit history and
collateral are also significant barriers to
mortgage loan approval.
Mortgage denial rates vary widely by
race and ethnicity in New Hanover
County. Black or African American
households have a disproportionately
high denial rate (19%) relative to the
denial rates of non-Hispanic White
households (6%) and households
overall (7%). Asian households and
households of other races have the
second highest denial rates at 14%,
followed by Hispanic households at 10%. Racial and ethnic disparities in mortgage application outcomes
are not explained by racial and ethnic differences in household incomes: even among high income
households, African American applicants have a disproportionately high denial rate.
Figure ES-14. People
Experiencing Homelessness in
New Hanover County
Source: Cape Fear Homeless Continuum of Care PIT
Counts and Root Policy Research.
Figure ES-15. Mortgage Loan Denial Rate by Race and
Ethnicity, New Hanover County, 2023
Source: HMDA 2023 and Root Policy Research.
Barriers to Housing
Rising homelessness, barriers to homeownership, disproportionately high
mortgage denial rate for African American applicants not explained by income.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY, NEW HANOVER COUNTY HNA PAGE 9
Population and Household
Projections. The North Carolina
State Demographer projects that
population growth will continue at a
similar rate, with the county’s
population increasing by in the next
twenty years from – in 2023 to – by
2043. Based on these population
projections and trends in household
population and average household
size, growth in households is expected
to continue at a similar rate through
2043: households are projected to
reach 116,557 by 2028, 127,028 by
2033, 134,728 by 2038, and 142,427 by
2043.
Future Housing Needs (“Keep Up” Needs): In order to keep up with projected growth, the
county needs to create an additional 21,187 units in the next 10 years and 38,697 units in the next 20
years. Of those units, 61% (21,906 in the next twenty years) would need to be for ownership to maintain
current homeownership levels.
Figure ES-10 also shows the affordability distribution needed to align those units with the county’s
current income distribution. The market is most likely to deliver rental units above 50% AMI and
ownership units above 150% AMI; but public assistance is likely needed to create rental units below 50%
AMI and ownership products below 150% AMI.
Figure ES-17. Projected Housing Needs through 2043
Source: NC OSBM State Demographer, 1-year ACS, Decennial Census, Root Policy Research.
Figure ES-16. 20-Year Population and Household
Projections, New Hanover County
Source: NC OSBM State Demographer, 1-year ACS, Decennial Census, Root Policy Research.
Demographic Projections and Future Housing Needs
Quantified housing needs by AMI in the next ten and twenty years.
INTRODUCTION
NEW HANOVER COUNTY HOUSING NEEDS
ASSESSMENT
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH INTRODUCTION, PAGE 1
INTRODUCTION.
Report Context
This Housing Needs Assessment (HNA) is a component of Destination 2050: New Hanover
County’s Comprehensive Plan update, designed to 1) present demographic trends; 2)
identify changes in the supply of and demand for housing; and 3) identify current and
future housing gaps in New Hanover County. Findings of this report have been used to
inform the Comprehensive Plan. The report was developed by community planning and
housing market research firm Root Policy Research in collaboration with key New Hanover
County stakeholders and is organized in three sections:
Section I focuses on trends in population, household characteristics, and income and
workforce growth as these relate to housing demand and housing needs.
Section II centers on the characteristics and construction of the county’s housing
stock, residential occupancy and vacancy, and trends in rents and home values. It
concludes with a comparison of five-year growths in household incomes, rents, home
values, and incomes required to afford typical priced homes to introduce Section III’s
discussion of housing needs.
Section III discusses housing cost burden, rental and home purchase affordability
including rental and purchase gaps analyses, barriers to homeownership, trends in
homelessness, and projections of future housing demand.
Geography
Study area. This report analyzes demographics and housing market conditions in New
Hanover County. To that end, the report presents data for:
New Hanover County: This includes all areas of New Hanover County.
Wilmington: Includes the City of Wilmington.
Balance of New Hanover County: Includes all areas of New Hanover County that are
not within the boundaries of the City of Wilmington. This includes Kure Beach, Carolina
Beach, Wrightsville Beach, and unincorporated New Hanover County. Unincorporated
areas include the Census designated places of Bayshore, Blue Clay Farms, Castle
Hayne, Hightsville, Kings Grant, Murraysville, Myrtle Grove, Northchase, Ogden,
Porters Neck, Sea Breeze, Silver Lake, Skippers Corner, and Wrightsboro.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH INTRODUCTION, PAGE 2
For indicators including home price trends and short term rental data, it is appropriate to
distinguish between Wilmington, the beach towns of Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, and
Wrightsville Beach, and the unincorporated county. In these cases, data are presented for:
New Hanover County: This includes all areas of New Hanover County.
Wilmington: Includes the City of Wilmington.
Beach Towns: Includes Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, and Wrightsville Beach.
Unincorporated New Hanover County: Includes unincorporated areas of New
Hanover County, including the Census designated places of Bayshore, Blue Clay Farms,
Castle Hayne, Hightsville, Kings Grant, Murraysville, Myrtle Grove, Northchase, Ogden,
Porters Neck, Sea Breeze, Silver Lake, Skippers Corner, and Wrightsboro.
To contextualize demographic and housing market trends in New Hanover County with
those in the broader Wilmington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA), this report
additionally presents data for the Wilmington MSA on select indicators.1
Peer communities. To enable an understanding of policy solutions implemented by
similar counties and cities as potential approaches for New Hanover County, this report
also presents key indicators for several peer communities. Peer communities were chosen
for their similarity to New Hanover County in terms of geographic proximity, demographic
and housing market similarity, status as a tourism destination, and presence of a major
city. Peer communities include:
Chatham County and Savannah, GA,2
Charleston County and Charleston, SC,
Buncombe County and Asheville, NC,3
Guilford County and Greensboro, NC, and
Forsyth County and Winston Salem, NC.
1 The Wilmington MSA includes New Hanover County, Brunswick County, and Pender County.
2 Chatham County and New Hanover County have a “sister county” agreement.
3 Data reflect conditions in 2023, before Hurricane Helene. Asheville and Buncombe County are included primarily as
examples of peer communities who have enacted policies to preserve housing affordability despite the area’s status as
a tourism destination.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH INTRODUCTION, PAGE 3
Data Sources and Methodology
The data used for the Housing Needs Assessment come from a variety of sources. In all
cases, the data are the latest, most readily available data to describe the housing market.
Primary data sources include:
American Community Survey (ACS),
Decennial Census, and Longitudinal
Employer-Household Dynamics
(LEHD) from the U.S. Census Bureau
New Hanover County Assessor and
New Hanover County Department of
Planning & Land Use
North Carolina Office of State Budget
& Management State Demographer
State of the Cities Data Systems
(SOCDS) and federally assisted
housing data from the U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban
Development (HUD)
Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wages (QCEW) from the U.S.
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Homeless Management Information
System and Point-in-Time Counts
from the Cape Fear Homelessness
Continuum of Care
AirDNA short term rental data
CoStar multifamily rental analytics
Root Policy Research, a community planning and housing research firm, tabulated and
analyzed data from these primary sources to inform the Housing Needs Assessment. Root
Policy Research is cited as a source where data presented in figures or tables include Root
Policy Research calculations.
Background
HUD income categories. Eligibility for housing programs is generally based on
where a household’s income falls within specific brackets determined by the U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD). Brackets are set by Area Median
Income (AMI):
Households earning 30% AMI are considered “extremely low income” and below the
federal poverty level;
Households earning between 31% and 50% AMI are “very low income;”
Households earning between 51% and 80% AMI are “low income;” and
Households with incomes between 80% and 120% AMI are considered “moderate
income.”
While this report uses the above listed income brackets in accordance with HUD guidelines,
North Carolina statute defines low income households as those earning 60% AMI or less
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH INTRODUCTION, PAGE 4
and moderate income households as those determined by a housing authority to require
assistance due to insufficient personal or family income.4
AMI limits vary by household size. Because New Hanover County households contain 2.20
people on average, this report uses two-person household AMI limits except where noted
otherwise. In 2024, the overall AMI for a two-person household is $79,400 and AMI limits
are as follows: 30% AMI = $23,800, 50% AMI = $39,700, 60% AMI = $47,600, 80% AMI =
$63,500, 100% AMI = $79,400, 120% AMI = $95,280.
Defining affordability. The most common measure of affordability assesses the
“burden” housing costs put on a household. If a household pays more than 30% of their
gross income for rent or mortgage payments (including taxes and basic utilities), they are
considered to be cost burdened. The higher the cost burden, the higher the risk of eviction,
foreclosure, and homelessness due to the challenges of managing housing costs.
Households spending 50% or more of their income on housing are severely cost burdened
and considered at risk of homelessness. These households have limited capacity to adjust
to rising home prices and are vulnerable to even minor shifts in rents, property taxes,
and/or incomes. Cost burden is important because it also indicates how well a household
can manage other expenses—e.g., childcare, transportation, health care—and how much
disposable income they have to contribute to the economy.
4 NCGS 157-3 § 157-3 (15a) and § 157-3 (15b).
SECTION I.
DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 1
SECTION I.
Demographic Trends
This section provides an overview of demographic trends in New Hanover County, the City
of Wilmington, and the balance of New Hanover County (defined as all areas of New
Hanover County that are outside of Wilmington) and contextualizes these with state level
and national trends. Where relevant, this report compares trends in New Hanover County
and Wilmington to those in peer communities.
The discussion centers on trends in population, household characteristics, and income and
workforce growth as these relate to housing demand and housing needs.
Key Findings
New Hanover County’s population grew by 18% between 2010 and 2023, growing
faster than the populations of North Carolina (+14%) and the United States (+8%) but
slower than the Wilmington MSA1 overall (+29%). Within the county, Wilmington’s
population growth over this time (+15%) was slower than that in the balance of the
county2 (+21%). The county’s population is aging and becoming slightly more racially
and ethnically diverse.
The median income for households in New Hanover County increased by 52% from
$52,200 in 2018 to $79,500 in 2023—a growth much faster than that of the United
States (+25%), North Carolina (+31%), and all peer communities over the same period.
Renters saw faster income growth than owners across this time: median renter
household income in the county increased by 45% (from $35,500 to $52,800) as
median owner income in increased by 34% (from $73,800 to $98,600).
Approximately 61% of the county’s households own their homes as of 2023, up from
56% in 2018. Homeownership rates increased both in Wilmington (from 41% in 2018
to 48% in 2023) and in the balance of the county (from 73% to 77%). Homeownership
rates are highest for non-Hispanic White and Asian households (65-67%) and
disproportionately low for all other races and ethnicities. Homeownership is especially
low for Hispanic households (42%) and African American households (39%).
1 The Wilmington MSA includes Brunswick, Pender, and New Hanover counties.
2 “Balance of New Hanover County” is a term used throughout this report to refer to all areas of New Hanover County
that are outside the boundaries of the City of Wilmington. For more information on geographic classifications used in
this report, please refer to the Housing Needs Assessment Introduction.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 2
Rising household incomes and homeownership rates are due to both rising wages and
migration trends of higher income residents moving to the county:
Between 2018 and 2023, average annual pay increased by 30% overall and by
at least 27% in all private employment industries except for manufacturing.
(This rise outpaced national inflation—22%—over the same period).
Since at least 2016-2017, the average annual income of households moving to
New Hanover County has been at least $12,000 greater than that of
households moving out of the county. This suggests moderate income
households are likely moving into the county as lower income renter
households leave the county for more affordable areas.
The county’s total employment increased by 13% from 114,472 in 2018 to 129,066 in
2023. Between 2018 and 2023, the county’s fastest growing employment industries
have been education and healthcare, financial activities, and construction.
Nearly half of workers employed in New Hanover County commute from outside the
county—most commonly Brunswick and Pender Counties. The proportion of jobs filled
by in-commuters has increased in recent years, from around 40% in the mid-2010s to
47% in 2022. One-fifth of employed New Hanover County residents work from home.
The North Carolina State Demographer projects that population growth will continue
at a similar rate through 2050, when the county’s population is expected to be
328,626—a 37% increase over the 2023 population. Population growth is expected to
vary by age, with residents under 30 decreasing from 36% of the population in 2023 to
30% of the population in 2050 and residents 65 and older growing from 20% of the
population in 2023 to 26% of the population in 2050.
Population
Population growth. In 2023, New Hanover County had a population of 238,852
residents. Wilmington was home to 51% or 122,695 of these residents, while the remaining
49% (116,157 residents) live in places outside of Wilmington (called the “balance of county”
throughout this report), including the beach towns and communities in the unincorporated
areas of the county such as Murrayville, Myrtle Grove, Ogden, Kings Grant, and Porters
Neck. Figure I-1 shows recent population trends in New Hanover County.
As shown in Figure I-1, the county’s population grew by 1% to 2% each year, 2010 to 2019,
resulting in a 16% increase over this time. This growth occurred in both Wilmington and the
balance of New Hanover County. The county’s population peaked at 123,728 residents in
2019 before decreasing to 115,451 residents (a 4% decrease) by 2020. This population loss
was concentrated in Wilmington, where the population decreased by 7%; the population of
all other areas of the county decreased by less than 0.5%. Due to periods of population
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 3
growth in Wilmington and the balance of the county, the county’s population has grown
each year since 2020, surpassing its 2019 peak in 2022.
Overall, since 2010, New Hanover County’s population has grown by 18%. Wilmington’s
population growth over this time (+15%) was slower overall than population growth in the
balance of the county (+21%).
Figure I-1.
Population, New Hanover County and by Jurisdiction, 2010-2023
Source: 2011-2019 and 2021-2023 1-year ACS estimates, 2010 and 2020 Decennial Census, and Root Policy Research.
For added context, Figure I-2 shows local population trends next to those of the
Wilmington Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA),3 North Carolina, and the United States. The
figure also presents population trends for the peer communities of Chatham County and
Savannah, GA; Charleston County and Charleston, SC; Buncombe County and Asheville, NC;
Guilford County and Greensboro, NC; and Forsyth County and Winston Salem, NC.
Long-term trends show that growth in New Hanover County, Wilmington, and the balance
of New Hanover County outpaced the state overall, but in the past five years, both New
Hanover County and Wilmington have had slightly slower population growth than the state
(+3% and +0% vs. +4% overall between 2018 and 2023). Similar trends are evident when
comparing New Hanover County to peer counties. New Hanover County (as well as
Wilmington and the balance of county) has grown slower than the Wilmington MSA since
2000 (+49% in Wilmington vs. +70% in the MSA) due to rapid population growth in
Brunswick and Pender counties.4
3 The Wilmington MSA includes New Hanover County, Brunswick County, and Pender County.
4 Brunswick County’s population grew by 119% from 73,143 in 2000 to 159,964 in 2023. Pender County’s population
grew by 67% from 41,082 in 2000 to 68,521 in 2023. (Source: 2000 Decennial Census and 2023 1-year ACS.)
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 4
Figure I-2.
Population Change, New Hanover County, Wilmington, Balance of County,
and Peer Communities, 2000, 2010, 2018, 2020, and 2023
Source: 2000, 2010, and 2020 Decennial Census, 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates, and Root Policy Research.
Age. Figure I-3 shows trends in the age distribution of the population in New Hanover
County, Wilmington and the state and the country overall. New Hanover County’s
population—both in Wilmington and in other areas—has aged slightly faster than
populations in North Carolina and the United States overall in the past 10 years. The share
of the population that is younger than 50 years old declined, offset by a proportional
increase in residents aged 65 and older. According to projections from the North Carolina
State Demographer, New Hanover County’s population will continue to age through 2050:
Study Area
New Hanover County 160,307 202,667 232,274 225,702 238,852 49% 18% 3%
Wilmington 75,838 106,476 122,610 115,451 122,695 62% 15% 0%
Balance of County 84,469 96,191 109,664 110,251 116,157 38% 21% 6%
MSA, N.C., and U.S.
Wilmington MSA 274,532 362,315 419,995 422,598 467,337 70% 29% 11%
North Carolina 8.05 M 9.54 M 10.38 M 10.44 M 10.84 M 35% 14% 4%
United States 281.42 M 308.75 M 327.17 M 331.45 M 334.91 M 19% 8% 2%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 232,048 265,128 289,195 295,291 303,655 31% 15% 5%
Savannah 131,510 136,286 145,852 147,780 147,751 12% 8% 1%
Charleston County, SC 309,969 350,209 405,905 408,235 424,367 37% 21% 5%
Charleston 96,650 120,083 141,088 150,227 155,988 61% 30% 11%
Buncombe County, NC 206,330 238,318 259,103 269,452 275,901 34% 16% 6%
Asheville 68,889 83,393 92,460 94,589 95,053 38% 14% 3%
Guilford County, NC 421,048 488,406 533,670 541,299 549,866 31% 13% 3%
Greensboro 223,891 269,666 294,726 299,035 302,307 35% 12% 3%
Forsyth County, NC 306,067 350,670 379,099 382,590 392,921 28% 12% 4%
Winston-Salem 185,776 229,617 246,334 249,545 252,970 36% 10% 3%
Total Population Population Change
2010-
2023
2018-
20232000 2010 2018
2000-
202320232020
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 5
senior citizens are expected to make up 22% of the county’s population by 2050, and the
median age is expected to increase from 39.63 in 2023 to 42.88 by 2050.5
Like Wilmington and New Hanover County, all peer cities and counties studied6 except for
the City of Charleston have aged since 2013, seeing decreases in population aged younger
than 30 and younger than 50 alongside increases in senior citizens as shares of population.
Figure I-3.
Population Distribution by Age, New Hanover County, Wilmington, and
Comparison Geographies, 2013, 2018, and 2023
Source: 2013, 2018, 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
Race and ethnicity. Recent shifts in the population’s racial and ethnic makeup are
shown in Figure I-4 below. Since 2018, the share of the county’s population that is African
American decreased (by 3 percentage points), while the share identifying as Hispanic or as
5 Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget & Management, State Demographer
6 Peer communities studied are Chatham County and Savannah, GA; Charleston County and Charleston, SC; Buncombe
County and Asheville, NC; Guilford County and Greensboro, NC; and Forsyth County and Winston Salem, NC.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 6
two or more races both increased. Non-Hispanic White residents decreased by two
percentage points as a share of the population. These shifts occurred both in Wilmington
and in the balance of the county.
Within the county, Wilmington is more racially and ethnically diverse than the balance of
county’s population: non-Hispanic White residents constitute 70% of Wilmington’s
population and 81% of the population in the balance of county. This is because greater
shares of Wilmington’s population are African American and Hispanic.
Figure I-4.
Population Distribution by Race and Ethnicity, New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and Comparison Geographies, 2018 and 2023
Note: “NH” indicates “non-Hispanic.” The “Hispanic” category includes all Hispanic residents, regardless of race. All other racial
groups include only non-Hispanic individuals. Labels for values of 1% and 0% are omitted.
Source: 2018 and 2023 5-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
Educational attainment. Figure I-5 shows that New Hanover County’s population,
both in Wilmington and elsewhere, has higher educational attainment on average than the
national and state populations. Approximately 47% of New Hanover County residents aged
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 7
25 or older have bachelor’s degrees or graduate degrees, compared to 36% of people living
in the United States and 37% of North Carolina residents.
Between 2018 and 2023, the share of the population with bachelor’s or graduate degrees
increased from 41% to 47% as the share of the population who had not attended
education past high school decreased from 26% to 22%.
While this shift took place in all areas studied, it was particularly dramatic in Wilmington,
where the share of the population with bachelor’s degrees or graduate degrees increased
by nine percentage points as the share of the population who had not attended education
past high school decreased by nine percentage points.
Figure I-5.
Educational Attainment of the Population Aged 25+, New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2018 and 2023
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 8
Households and Homeownership
Growth in households. In 2023, New Hanover County was home to 238,852 people
living in 106,358 households.7 Over half (56%) of these households live in the City of
Wilmington. The county has gained 8,207 households (an 8% growth) since 2018, and this
growth was concentrated in Wilmington: the city increased its total number of households
by 13%, compared to 3% in the balance of county. These dynamics are presented in Figure
I-6 and contextualized with trends in the United States, North Carolina, the Wilmington
MSA, and peer communities in Figure I-7.
Figure I-6.
Households, New Hanover
County, Wilmington, and
Balance of County, 2018
and 2023
Source:
2018 and 2023 ACS 1-year estimates and Root
Policy Research.
7 “Households” includes permanent resident occupied households, but excludes vacant units, seasonally occupied units,
and second/vacation houses.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 9
New Hanover County’s household growth in the past five years is similar to that of the
United States, two percentage points lower than that of North Carolina, and eight
percentage points lower than that of the Wilmington MSA overall (Figure I-7).
Figure I-7.
Households, New
Hanover County
and Peer
Communities, 2018
and 2023
Source:
2018 and 2023 ACS 1-year
estimates and Root Policy
Research.
Study Area
New Hanover County 98,151 106,358 8,207 8%
Wilmington 52,998 59,730 6,732 13%
Balance of County 45,153 46,628 1,475 3%
MSA, N.C., and U.S.
Wilmington MSA 177,638 206,546 28,908 16%
North Carolina 4,011,462 4,392,669 381,207 10%
United States 121.52 M 131.33 M 9.81 M 8%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 107,921 123,272 15,351 14%
Savannah 51,118 60,129 9,011 18%
Charleston County, SC 160,457 183,800 23,343 15%
Charleston 57,915 69,588 11,673 20%
Buncombe County, NC 108,411 104,181 -4,230 -4%
Asheville 40,968 39,811 -1,157 -3%
Guilford County, NC 209,842 222,927 13,085 6%
Greensboro 119,838 125,752 5,914 5%
Forsyth County, NC 150,437 166,028 15,591 10%
Winston-Salem 97,226 107,693 10,467 11%
ChangeTotal Households
2018 2023 # %
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 10
Household size and type. In the past five years, increases in total households in
New Hanover County (+8%) and Wilmington (+13%) have been greater than population
growth in New Hanover County (+3%) and Wilmington (+0%). This is possible because
average household sizes in the county and the city have decreased (see Figure I-8).
Figure I-8.
Change in Average
Household Size, New
Hanover County,
Wilmington, and
Balance of County,
2018–2023
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS
estimates.
Figure I-9 shows that since 2018, New Hanover County has gained household types that
tend to be smaller: married couples without children and householders living alone. At the
same time, married couples with children—a household type that tends to be large—
declined. This shift explains the decrease in its average household size from 2.29 to 2.20.
The county-level change in household size and type is largely due to shifts in Wilmington’s
households: Wilmington gained 1,559 married couples without children and 3,289
householders living alone as it lost 523 married couples with children. Wilmington’s
resultant decrease in average household size was greater than the county overall: from
2.21 in 2018 to 1.99 in 2023.
The balance of county lost 1,347 householders living alone and gained 1,383 married
couples without children, resulting in an increase in average household size (from 2.39 in
2018 to 2.47 in 2023).
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 11
Figure I-9.
Households by Type, New Hanover County, Wilmington and BoC, 2018 and 2023
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
New Hanover County 98,151 106,358 8,207 8%
Family households 53,225 58,198 4,973 9%
Married couple without children under 18 26,190 29,132 2,942 11%
Married couple with children under 18 13,394 12,803 -591 -4%
Single parent household 7,226 8,062 836 12%
Other family 6,415 8,201 1,786 28%
Nonfamily households 44,926 48,160 3,234 7%
Householder living alone 33,505 35,447 1,942 6%
Householder living with roommates/unmarried partner 11,421 12,713 1,292 11%
Wilmington 52,998 59,730 6,732 13%
Family households 24,514 26,767 2,253 9%
Married couple without children under 18 11,196 12,755 1,559 14%
Married couple with children under 18 5,841 5,318 -523 -9%
Single parent household 3,800 3,898 98 3%
Other family 3,677 4,796 1,119 30%
Nonfamily households 28,484 32,963 4,479 16%
Householder living alone 20,338 23,627 3,289 16%
Householder living with roommates/unmarried partner 8,146 9,336 1,190 15%
Balance of County 45,153 46,628 1,475 3%
Family households 28,711 31,431 2,720 9%
Married couple without children under 18 14,994 16,377 1,383 9%
Married couple with children under 18 7,553 7,485 -68 -1%
Single parent household 3,426 4,164 738 22%
Other family 2,738 3,405 667 24%
Nonfamily households 16,442 15,197 -1,245 -8%
Householder living alone 13,167 11,820 -1,347 -10%
Householder living with roommates/unmarried partner 3,275 3,377 102 3%
Total Households Change
2018 2023 # %
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 12
Homeownership. As of 2023, 61% of New Hanover County households own their
homes.8 Wilmington has a lower homeownership rate at 48%, while homeownership is
higher in the balance of the county at 77%. New Hanover County’s homeownership rate of
61% is lower than those of the Wilmington MSA (72%), North Carolina (66%), and the United
States (65%) overall.
Homeownership has increased in Wilmington, the balance of the county, and the
county overall since 2018 when 56% of households in the county, 41% of households in
Wilmington, and 73% of households in the balance of the county owned their homes. The
broader MSA also saw an increase in homeownership from 68% to 72%.
Figure I-10.
Homeownership
Rate, New Hanover
County,
Wilmington,
Balance of County,
and Comparison
Geographies, 2018
and 2023
Source:
2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates
and Root Policy Research.
Increases in homeownership are at least partially due to lower income renter households
leaving the county for more affordable areas and being replaced by higher income
households as evidenced by migration data presented later in Section I (Figure I-30).
8 Note that “households” refers to units that are occupied by permanent residents and excludes vacant units, seasonally
occupied units, and second/vacation houses, so units used as second/vacation homes are excluded from the
homeownership rate calculation.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 13
As shown in Figure I-11, homeownership has decreased for households with incomes of
$50,000 to $150,000 and increased for households with incomes of $150,000 or more since
2018. Data also show that homeownership increased slightly for households with incomes
of less than $50,000. The rise in homeownership at the lowest income level may be
explained by two factors:
New Hanover County’s population is aging (Figure I-3). Many retiring households
already own their homes, inflating homeownership at the lowest income levels when
their incomes decrease due to retirement.
A later figure in Section I (Figure I-30) shows that lower income households are leaving
the county—likely due to rising housing costs—as moderate income households move
to the county. Lower income renter households are exposed to rising rents, while
homeowners at the same income level manage relatively stable mortgage payments
or may own their homes outright, making renters more likely than owners to leave the
county due to rising costs.
Figure I-11.
Homeownership Rate by
Household Income, New
Hanover County, 2018 and
2023
Source:
2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy
Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 14
Figure I-12 presents changes in homeownership for peer communities. New Hanover
County and Wilmington saw greater increases in homeownership between 2018 and 2023
than any peer county or city.
Figure I-12.
Homeownership Rate, New
Hanover County and Peer
Communities, 2018 and
2023
Source:
2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root
Policy Research.
Study Area
New Hanover County 56% 61% 5%
Wilmington 41% 48% 6%
Balance of County 73% 77% 4%
MSA, N.C., and U.S.
Wilmington MSA 68% 72% 4%
North Carolina 65% 66% 1%
United States 64% 65% 1%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 57% 57% 0%
Savannah 46% 44% -2%
Charleston County, SC 62% 64% 2%
Charleston 59% 57% -2%
Buncombe County, NC 65% 66% 1%
Asheville 49% 53% 3%
Guilford County, NC 57% 60% 3%
Greensboro 48% 51% 3%
Forsyth County, NC 58% 63% 4%
Winston-Salem 51% 56% 4%
2018 2023
Change
2018-2023
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 15
Homeownership rates vary by race and ethnicity, as shown in Figure I-13.9 In New Hanover
County, non-Hispanic White and Asian households have higher than average
homeownership rates while households of all other races and ethnicities have
disproportionately low homeownership rates—10 or more percentage points below
the overall homeownership rate of 61%. Homeownership is especially low for Hispanic
households (42%) and African American households (39%).
In Wilmington, households of all races and ethnicities saw increases in homeownership
over the past five years. However, African American, Hispanic, and “other race”
householders in the balance of the county saw their homeownership rates decrease
between 2018 and 2023.
Figure I-13.
Homeownership Rate by Race and Ethnicity, 2018 and 2023
Note: “NH” indicates “non-Hispanic.” The “Hispanic” category includes all Hispanic residents, regardless of race. All other groups
include only non-Hispanic individuals. “All other races” includes households who are Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander,
American Indian/Alaska Native, or races not listed elsewhere.
Source: 2018 and 2023 5-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
Homeownership also varies by age of householder, with older households maintaining
higher ownership rates, until the age of 75 (see Figure I-14).10 In the county overall,
householders age 15 to 24, 25 to 34, and 35 to 54 saw increases in homeownership
9 The homeownership rates for “all households” in this table differ from those presented in the figures above because
this table uses 5-year ACS estimates instead of the 1-year ACS estimates used previously. It is necessary to use 5-year
ACS estimates in this table because margins of error on 1-year homeownership rates by race and ethnicity—where
available—are very large.
10 Homeownership rates for “all households” in this table differ from those presented in earlier figures because this
table uses 5-year ACS estimates instead of the 1-year ACS estimates used previously. It is necessary to use 5-year ACS
estimates in this table because margins of error on 1-year homeownership rates by age of householder are large.
All households 57% 61% 3% 44% 47% 3% 73% 77% 4%
NH White 62% 65% 3% 51% 52% 1% 74% 79% 5%
African American 34% 39% 5% 20% 29% 9% 73% 66% -7%
Hispanic 37% 42% 5% 22% 38% 16% 63% 49% -14%
Asian 53% 67% 14% 44% 49% 5% 68% 88% 20%
Two or more races 44% 48% 4% 25% 28% 3% 67% 70% 3%
All other races 52% 47% -5% 34% 43% 8% 76% 54% -22%
2023 Change
New Hanover
County Wilmington Balance of County
2018 2023 Change 2018 2023 Change 2018
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 16
between 2019 and 2023, while homeownership remained relatively stable for older
householders.
Figure I-14.
Homeownership Rate by Age of Householder, 2019 and 2023
Note: 2019 estimates are presented instead of 2018 estimates because 2018 estimates are unavailable.
Source: 2019 and 2023 5-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
All households 57% 61% 3% 44% 47% 3% 73% 77% 4%
15 to 24 5% 7% 2% 3% 4% 1% 14% 15% 1%
25 to 34 33% 38% 4% 19% 24% 5% 56% 58% 2%
35 to 54 61% 68% 7% 48% 58% 10% 74% 77% 4%
55 to 74 73% 73% 0% 61% 58% -3% 86% 88% 2%
75+71% 70% -1% 65% 60% -5% 80% 84% 5%
2023 Change
New Hanover
County Wilmington Balance of County
2019 2023 Change 2019 2023 Change 2019
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 17
University Enrollment, Employment, and Commuting
UNCW enrollment. New Hanover County is home to The University of North Carolina
at Wilmington (UNCW). UNCW’s enrollment is nearly 19,000 students (enrollment trends
since 2010 are presented in Figure I-15.) Enrollment grew consistently between 2010 and
2020 and has been fairly stable over the past four years.
Figure I-15.
University of North Carolina Wilmington Enrollment, 2010–2024
Source: University of North Carolina Wilmington.
Approximately 34.4% of undergraduate students—equivalent to 5,247 students—live in
college owned, operated, or affiliated housing, while 65.6% of undergraduates—10,006
students—live off campus or commute.11
The 13,600 undergraduate and graduate UNCW students who do not live in on-campus
housing may live elsewhere in New Hanover County and neighboring counties, and many
of them may live elsewhere due to the University’s distance education and online
accelerated programs. As such, it is difficult to estimate the student impact on the local
housing market, thought students who do live in Wilmington are likely to be renters
occupying naturally occurring affordable housing.
Employment. There are currently about 129,000 jobs in New Hanover County. Job
growth averaged 2-3% per year from 2010 through 2019 and has been even higher since
2021 (4-5% each year). As in North Carolina overall, the county’s total employment
11 Source: UNCW Common Data Set 2024-2025, https://uncw.edu/about/university-administration/academic-
affairs/division/areas/irp/data-analytics/common-data-sets
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 18
decreased by approximately 4% in 2020 with the pandemic but returned to pre-pandemic
levels in 2021.12
Figure I-16.
Total Employment,
New Hanover
County, 2014–2023
Note:
Figure presents average annual
employment.
Source:
Quarterly Census of Employment
and Wages (QCEW).
As shown in Figure I-17, total employment increased by 13% between 2018 and 2023.
Private employment increased by 21% between 2018 and 2023 as government
employment decreased by 27%. This is because the 2021 sale of the New Hanover Regional
Medical Center (NHRMC) from New Hanover County to Novant Health resulted in a
transition from local government employment to private employment for the
approximately 7,500 employees who worked at NHRMC at the time.
The largest employment industry in New Hanover County as of 2023 is trade,
transportation, and utilities (24,127 jobs), followed by education and healthcare (22,871
jobs), leisure and hospitality (19,194 jobs), and professional and business services (18,758
jobs). Private education and healthcare’s employment grew fastest (+65%) in the past five
years, largely due to NHRMC’s transition to private ownership and not necessarily
indicating that this sector added overall jobs the fastest. Private employment growth
between 2018 and 2023 was also rapid in financial activities (+27%) and construction
(+26%).
Overall, average annual pay increased by 30% from $45,202 in 2018 to $58,889 in 2023.
Average annual pay increased by at least 27% in all industries except for manufacturing,
where average annual pay increased by only 6%. The information industry, which saw
employment decrease by 23% between 2018 and 2023, also had the highest average
12 By these metrics, employment in North Carolina and New Hanover County fared better than employment in the
United States overall with the pandemic: the pandemic led to a 6% decrease in employment in 2020, with total
employment returning to pre-pandemic levels in 2021.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 19
annual pay in 2023 ($109,003) and the greatest increase in average annual pay between
2018 and 2023 (+55%).
It is worth noting that wages grew faster than average in the lowest paying industries:
leisure and hospitality, the county’s third largest industry by employment and lowest
paying industry, saw particularly strong wage growth from 2018 to 2023 (+39%). Wage
growth was similarly strong for other services—the second lowest paying industry and a
smaller industry by employment (+41% from 2018 to 2023).
Figure I-17.
Average Annual Employment and Average Annual Pay by Employment
Industry, New Hanover County, 2018 and 2023
Note: The 2021 sale of the New Hanover Regional Medical Center (NHRMC) from New Hanover County to Novant Health resulted in
a transition from local government employment to private employment for approximately 7,500 NHRMC employees.
Changes in employment and average pay for education and health service professionals should be interpreted with caution.
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages and Root Policy Research.
Government Employment 19,847 14,424 -27% $53,000 $59,764 13%
Private Employment 94,626 114,642 21% $43,567 $58,779 35%
Goods producing industries 13,054 15,925 22% $61,377 $72,878 19%
Natural resources and mining 152 140 -8% $41,014 $52,397 28%
Construction 7,798 9,833 26% $50,791 $67,311 33%
Manufacturing 5,104 5,953 17% $78,157 $82,556 6%
Service providing industries 81,572 98,717 21% $40,717 $56,505 39%
Trade, transportation, utilities 22,196 24,127 9% $37,275 $50,392 35%
Information 3,159 2,420 -23% $70,161 $109,003 55%
Financial activities 5,449 6,901 27% $67,165 $85,002 27%
Professional and business services 15,235 18,758 23% $55,566 $75,044 35%
Education and health services 13,857 22,871 65% $45,729 $63,292 38%
Leisure and hospitality 18,027 19,194 6% $17,836 $24,865 39%
Other services 3,650 4,447 22% $28,679 $40,329 41%
Total Employment 114,472 129,066 13% $45,202 $58,889 30%
Average Annual
Employment Average Annual Pay
2018 2023 % Ch. 2018 2023 % Ch.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 20
Figure I-18 shows the AMI levels that correspond to average annual pay for privately
employed workers by industry based on a 1-person household size. It also shows the AMI
level of New Hanover County Schools teachers based on the salary for a teacher in North
Carolina with a bachelor’s degree and ten years of experience or a master’s degree and five
years of experience.
Figure I-18.
AMI Level of Average Annual Pay by Employment Industry, New Hanover
County, 2023
Note: This table calculates AMI levels based on a 1-person household size (100% AMI for a 1-person household in 2023: $63,200).
The public school teacher salary included in this figure is the 2024-2025 salary for a North Carolina public school teacher with
a bachelor’s degree and ten years of experience ($49,350), roughly equivalent to that for a public school teacher with a
master’s degree and five years of experience ($49,230). Because this is a 2024-2025 salary, the AMI equivalent of the teacher
salary is calculated based on the AMI for a 1-person household in 2024 ($69,500).
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, North Carolina 2024-2025 Teacher Pay Schedules, HUD AMI Limits, and Root
Policy Research.
Commuting. This section uses Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics data from
the Census Bureau to summarize commuting dynamics in New Hanover County. As of
2022, there were 113,243 people employed in New Hanover County. Figure I-19 shows that
approximately 60,362 or 53% of these jobs are filled by county residents, meaning that 66%
of the 91,987 workers who live in New Hanover County are also employed there.
The remaining 52,881 or 47% of jobs in the county are filled by in-commuters from other
counties. In-commuting workers come mostly from Brunswick and Pender Counties, whose
residents constitute 12% and 8% of the workforce employed in New Hanover County,
respectively. Another 31,625 New Hanover County residents, equivalent to about 34% of
workers living in New Hanover County, are out-commuters who work in other counties—
mostly Wake County and Brunswick County.
Extremely low
income
Very low
income Low income
0-30% AMI 31-50% AMI 51-80% AMI 81-100% AMI 101-120% AMI >120% AMI
• Full time
employment at
minimum wage
(<24% AMI)
• Part time
employment
• Leisure and
hospitality (39%
AMI)
• Other services
(64% AMI)
• Public school
teachers (71%
AMI)
• Trade,
transportation,
and utilities (80%
AMI)
• Natural
resources and
mining (83% AMI)
• Education and
Health Services
(100% AMI)
• Construction
(107% AMI)
• Professional
and business
services (119%
AMI)
• Manufacturing
(131% AMI)
• Financial
activities (134%
AMI)
• Information
(172% AMI)
Moderate/middle income
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 21
Figure I-19.
Commuting Dynamics, New Hanover County, 2022
Source: Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) 2022.
The proportion of jobs filled by in-commuters has shifted up slightly since the mid to late
2010s. As of 2022, 47% of workers with jobs in New Hanover County commute from
outside of the county, up from around 40% to 43% in the mid to late 2010s.
Figure I-20.
Workers by Commuting Status, New Hanover County, 2022
Source: Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD) 2022.
Figure I-21 shows the distribution of households in New Hanover County, by place, and in
the United States and North Carolina by number of vehicles available. Overall, 95% of New
Hanover County households—including 92% of Wilmington households and 99% of
households in the balance of county—have at least one vehicle available. New Hanover
County households are as likely as North Carolina households to have at least one vehicle
available and more likely than United States households to have at least one vehicle
available. Approximately 66% of households in the balance of county have two or more
vehicles available, compared to 51% of households in Wilmington.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 22
Figure I-21.
Vehicle Availability, New Hanover County, Wilmington, Balance of County,
and Comparison Geographies, 2023
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
This distribution is shown for New Hanover County households by number of workers in
the household in 2018 and 2023 in Figure I-22. In 2023, 6% of households with one worker
have no vehicles available. If these workers do not work from home, they must rely on
other means of transportation—public transportation, walking, biking, carpooling, or hiring
taxis or rideshares—to get to work. Almost all households with two or three workers have
at least one vehicle available.
Figure I-22.
Vehicle Availability by Number of Workers in Household, New Hanover
County, 2018 and 2023
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
Study Area
New Hanover County 106,358 5% 37% 40% 13% 5%
Wilmington 59,730 8% 41% 38% 10% 3%
Balance of County 46,628 1% 33% 43% 16% 7%
N.C. and U.S.
North Carolina 4,392,669 5% 31% 38% 16% 9%
United States 131,332,360 8% 33% 36% 14% 7%
% of Households with:
Total
Households
No Vehicles
Available
1 Vehicle
Available
2 Vehicles
Available
3 Vehicles
Available
4+ Vehicles
Available
2018
All Households 98,151 7% 35% 41% 11% 5%
No workers 30,501 15% 46% 29% 9% 1%
1 worker 37,057 6% 49% 38% 6% 1%
2 workers 26,444 2% 8% 63% 18% 9%
3 or more workers 4,149 0% 1% 13% 40% 47%
2023
All Households 106,358 5% 37% 40% 13% 5%
No workers 28,514 9% 53% 31% 5% 2%
1 worker 43,222 6% 50% 30% 10% 4%
2 workers 29,409 0% 9% 68% 16% 6%
3 or more workers 5,213 0% 2% 13% 61% 23%
% of Households with:
2 Vehicles
Available
3 Vehicles
Available
4+ Vehicles
Available
1 Vehicle
Available
No Vehicles
Available
Total
Households
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 23
Work from home. Figure I-23 shows the share of the employed population that works
from home. In New Hanover County as in North Carolina and the United States overall, the
pandemic caused increased rates of working from home between 2019 and 2021, though
data show that this increase was less dramatic in the county than in the state and the
nation overall. Between 2019 and 2021, the rate of working from home in New Hanover
County increased by seven percentage points from 11% in 2019 to 18% in 2021, compared
to 12 percentage point increases in North Carolina and the United States. This is likely due
the county’s already-relatively high rates of working from home in the mid- to late-2010s.
While working from home has become less common since 2021 in North Carolina and the
United States overall, the county has seen continued increases in working from home. In
2023, 21% of New Hanover County workers work from home, including 20% of workers in
Wilmington and 22% of workers in the balance of the county.
Figure I-23.
Share of Employed
Population Working
from Home, New
Hanover County,
Wilmington, and Balance
of County, 2015–2023
Note:
Odd numbered years are presented because
1-year estimates are unavailable for 2020.
2017 and 2021 estimates for Wilmington and
Balance of County are unavailable.
Source:
2015, 2017, 2019, 2021, and 2023 1-year ACS
estimates and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 24
Income, Wages, and Poverty
Median income. As shown in Figures I-24 and I-25, the median income for households
in New Hanover County increased by 52% from 2018 to 2023—a growth rate more than
twice that of incomes in the United States (+25%) and significantly higher than in North
Carolina (+31%) and peer communities over the same period. Wilmington’s median
household income grew by 54% between 2018 and 2023, similar to that of other areas of
New Hanover County (+53%) but higher than peer cities.
In 2023, households in New Hanover County overall and in areas of New Hanover County
outside of Wilmington have higher median incomes—$79,500 and $90,000 respectively—
than households in the United States ($77,700) and North Carolina ($70,800) overall.
Households in Wilmington have a lower median income ($71,400) than households in the
United States overall, but a similar median income to the state overall.
Figure I-24.
Median Household Income Growth, New Hanover County, Wilmington, and
Balance of County, 2013–2023
Note: xxx.
Source: 2013, 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 25
Figure I-25 shows that both owners and renters in New Hanover County saw gains in
income, though renter incomes grew faster: median renter household income in the
county increased by 45% (from $35,500 to $52,800) as median owner household income in
the county increased by 34% (from $73,800 to $98,600). This was also the case in
Wilmington and the balance of New Hanover County.
Figure I-25.
Median Household Income by Tenure, New Hanover County and Peer
Communities, 2018 and 2023
Note: Table reflects the median incomes of households whose primary residence is in New Hanover County. It does not include
second home owners whose primary residence is outside of New Hanover County.
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
Study Area
New Hanover County $36,523 $52,803 45% $73,792 $98,588 34% $52,239 $79,547 52%
Wilmington $32,794 $47,005 43% $72,623 $100,540 38% $46,488 $71,362 54%
Balance of County $46,026 $69,990 52% $74,569 $97,047 30% $58,989 $90,032 53%
N.C. and U.S.
North Carolina $36,034 $48,270 34% $68,018 $86,087 27% $53,855 $70,804 31%
United States $40,531 $51,719 28% $78,045 $95,915 23% $61,937 $77,719 25%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA $36,876 $52,320 42% $79,373 $91,192 15% $55,308 $70,904 28%
Savannah $32,027 $44,940 40% $62,292 $81,115 30% $44,723 $56,823 27%
Charleston County, SC $42,357 $61,872 46% $83,368 $107,898 29% $63,459 $89,083 40%
Charleston $52,496 $62,375 19% $95,255 $125,017 31% $70,319 $95,126 35%
Buncombe County, NC $38,360 $47,684 24% $67,292 $87,636 30% $53,980 $71,525 33%
Asheville $37,435 $45,988 23% $69,801 $90,111 29% $51,040 $66,032 29%
Guilford County, NC $33,890 $43,804 29% $73,224 $87,145 19% $51,803 $65,413 26%
Greensboro $33,915 $44,291 31% $71,142 $86,628 22% $45,787 $61,747 35%
Forsyth County, NC $32,099 $43,824 37% $67,632 $82,631 22% $49,166 $65,062 32%
Winston-Salem $30,537 $38,890 27% $63,282 $81,328 29% $44,597 $59,189 33%
% Ch.
Renters Homeowners Overall
2018 2023 % Ch. 2018 2023 % Ch. 2018 2023
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 26
Income distribution. Figure I-26 shows the income distribution of renter households
in 2018 and 2023 in New Hanover County, Wilmington, and the balance of county.
Renters have broadly shifted into higher income brackets. Nearly 40% of the county’s
renter households earned less than $25,000 annually in 2018; by 2023, this decreased to
24%. At the same time, the share of New Hanover County’s renter households earning
$75,000 or more doubled from 16% to 32%. These shifts far exceed inflation over the
period.
Figure I-26.
Renter Household
Income
Distribution, New
Hanover County,
Wilmington, and
Balance of County,
2018 and 2023
Source:
2018 and 2023 1-year ACS
estimates and Root Policy
Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 27
Figure I-27 shows shifts in renter households by Area Median Income (AMI)13 level to
confirm broad increases in renter household incomes: the share of the county’s renter
households who earn extremely low incomes (0-30% AMI) or very low incomes (31-50%
AMI) decreased from 43% in 2018 to 34% in 2023 as the share of renter households
earning over 120% AMI increased from 21% in 2018 to 26% in 2023.
Figure I-27.
Renter Household Income Distribution by AMI, New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2018 and 2023
Note: These calculations are based on the AMI for a 2-person household in line with the county’s average household size.
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates, 2018 and 2023 HUD AMI Limits for 2-person households, and Root Policy Research.
13 For more information on Area Median Income (AMI), refer to the “Background” section at the beginning of this report.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 28
Owner households have also shifted into higher income brackets in New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and the balance of the county since 2018 (see Figure I-28). Just over half (51%)
of owner households earned less than $75,000 in 2018, compared to 35% in 2023. Nearly
half (49%) of owner households earned $100,000 in 2023, up from one third (33%) in 2018.
Figure I-28.
Owner Household
Income
Distribution, New
Hanover County,
Wilmington, and
Balance of County,
2018 and 2023
Source:
2018 and 2023 1-year ACS
estimates and Root Policy
Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 29
Figure I-29 shows that owner household incomes also shifted into higher brackets in terms
of AMI, though not as dramatically as renter household incomes. Approximately 34% of the
county’s owner households earn 100% AMI or less as of 2023, compared to 38% in 2018.
The share of owner households earning more than 150% AMI increased from 42% in 2018
to 45% in 2023.
Figure I-29.
Owner Household Income Distribution by AMI, New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2018 and 2023
Note: These calculations are based on the AMI for a 2-person household in line with the county’s average household size.
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates, 2018 and 2023 HUD AMI Limits for 2-person households, and Root Policy Research.
Migration. While growing wages for the county’s workforce partially explain the county’s
growing incomes (see Figure I-17), some of the county’s income growth may be explained
by migration trends (households moving to or out of New Hanover County). Figure I-30
shows trends from New Hanover County migration data based on year-to-year address
changes reported on individual income tax returns filed with the Internal Revenue Service
(IRS).
Inflows represent the number of new households moving to the county (identified as
households who filed a return in the county but had filed a return in a different county
the previous year), and
Outflows are the number of households who left the county (i.e., filed a return in a
county other than New Hanover County but had filed a return in New Hanover County
the previous year).
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 30
The data also include total adjusted gross income which allows the estimation of the
average adjusted gross income14 for inflow and outflow returns each year.
Since 2016-2017, the average income of in-migrating households has been at least $12,000
greater than that of out-migrating households. The income gap between households
moving to the county and households moving out of the county was especially large—
greater than $18,700—each year, 2018-2019 to 2020-2021.
This suggests that moderate income households are moving to New Hanover County as
lower income households leave the county—a trend that partially explains the county’s
rising homeownership rates and rapid income growth since 2018. It is important to note
that the migration data do not provide reasons for in- and/or out-migration to/from the
county, though affordability and availability of housing could certainly be key drivers, along
with other housing preferences and/or economic opportunities.
Figure I-30.
Migration Trends, New Hanover County, 2015–2022
Note: Data do not represent the full U.S. population because many individuals are not required to file an individual income tax
return. The county-to-county outflow migration files represent the migration flows from the origin state and county, in year
one, to the destination state and county, in year two. Tax returns with an Individual Taxpayer Identification Number (ITIN)
issued by the IRS are included.
Source: IRS Statistics of Income (SOI) program and Root Policy Research.
14 Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) is defined as gross income minus adjustments to income. Gross income includes your
wages, dividends, capital gains, business income, retirement distributions as well as other income. Adjustments to
Income include such items as educator expenses, student loan interest, alimony payments or contributions to a
retirement account.
Tax Filing Year
2015–2016 7,965 $58,656 6,753 $52,782
2016–2017 10,174 $66,975 8,841 $49,046
2017–2018 7,763 $67,374 7,427 $52,242
2018–2019 7,263 $72,082 6,974 $52,600
2019–2020 8,220 $84,736 7,341 $58,389
2020–2021 9,307 $79,994 7,575 $61,279
2021–2022 9,304 $86,710 7,769 $74,439
Inflow
Average Adjusted
Gross Income
Number of
Returns
Outflow
Number of
Returns
Average Adjusted
Gross Income
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 31
Poverty. As shown in Figure I-31, poverty in New Hanover County declined sharply
between 2015 and 2021, but has since inched back up to 12%. The current poverty rate is
similar to the United States and North Carolina overall.
In each year studied, Wilmington had a higher poverty rate than the balance of the county.
Data show a dramatic reduction in Wilmington’s poverty rate from 27% in 2010 to 13% in
2023. While it is clear that poverty has decreased in the city, these estimates should be
interpreted with caution due to relatively high margins of error in the sampling data.
Poverty rates for the balance of New Hanover County appear to have risen as Wilmington’s
poverty rates have fallen since 2019, but these estimates are also subject to relatively high
margins of error.
Figure I-31.
Individual Poverty
Rate, New Hanover
County,
Wilmington, and
Balance of County,
2010, 2015, 2019,
2021, 2022, and 2023
Note:
Estimates for Wilmington and the
Balance of County are subject to
substantial margin of error and
should be interpreted with caution.
Source:
2010, 2015, 2019, 2021, 2022, and
2023 1-year ACS estimates.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 32
Demographic Forecasts
The North Carolina State Demographer estimates that New Hanover County had a
population of 239,514 in 2023 and projects that this population will grow to 262,570 by
2030, 295,596 by 2040, and 328,626 by 2050. Population growth is expected to continue at
a similar rate through 2050.
Figure I-32.
Estimated and Projected Total Population, New Hanover County, 2000–
2050
Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget & Management, State Demographer.
Figure I-33 visualizes the age breakdown of this projected population growth, while the
table in Figure I-34 quantifies projected aging trends. According to the North Carolina State
Demographer, New Hanover County’s total population is expected to increase by 37%
overall between 2023 and 2050, though this varies greatly by age. Younger populations—
those aged under 18 or 18-29—will grow by only 13-14% between 2023 to 2050. Growth
will be moderate, similar to that of the population overall, for the populations aged 30-49
and 50-64. Older adults will be the fastest growing population, with the population 80 years
of age or older expected to nearly triple from 9,401 in 2023 to 27,276 by 2050.
As shares of the population, between 2023 and 2050:
Residents younger than 30 are expected to decrease by six percentage points
from 36% to 30%.
Residents 30-64 are expected to remain stable at 44% of the population.
Residents 65-79 are expected to increase by two percentage points from 16% to 18%.
Residents aged 80 or older are expected to double, from 4% to 8%.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION I, PAGE 33
The county’s rapidly growing elderly population exacerbates needs for aging-friendly
housing options, including accessibility modifications to allow residents to age in place as
well as independent living and assisted living facilities.
Figure I-33.
Estimated and Projected Total Population by Age, New Hanover County,
2020–2050
Note: 2020-2023 data are estimates; 2024-2050 data are projections.
Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget & Management, State Demographer.
Figure I-34.
Projected Change in
Population and
Population
Distribution by Age,
New Hanover
County, 2023–2050
Source:
North Carolina Office of State Budget
& Management, State Demographer.
Residents
Total 239,514 262,570 295,596 328,626 37%
Under 18 42,320 41,895 45,321 48,317 14%
18-29 43,571 46,415 46,925 49,357 13%
30-49 59,975 66,196 76,292 83,466 39%
50-64 45,912 47,695 53,425 62,577 36%
65-79 38,335 45,889 51,371 57,633 50%
80 or older 9,401 14,480 22,262 27,276 190%
Residents as a share of the population
Under 18 18% 16% 15% 15%-3%
18-29 18% 18% 16% 15%-3%
30-49 25% 25% 26% 25%0%
50-64 19% 18% 18% 19%0%
65-79 16% 17% 17% 18%2%
80 or older 4% 6% 8% 8%4%
2023
(est.) 2030 2040 2050
2023 - 2050
Change
SECTION II.
HOUSING SUPPLY AND DEMAND
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 1
SECTION II.
Housing Supply and Demand
This section provides an overview of housing supply and demand in New Hanover County,
the City of Wilmington, and the balance of New Hanover County (defined as all areas of
New Hanover County that are outside of Wilmington) and contextualizes these with state
level and national trends. Where relevant, this report compares trends in New Hanover
County and Wilmington to those in peer communities.1
The discussion centers on the characteristics and construction of the county’s housing
stock, residential occupancy and vacancy, and trends in rents and home values. It
concludes with a comparison of five-year growths in household incomes, rents, home
values, and incomes required to afford typical priced homes to introduce Section III’s
discussion of housing needs.
Key Findings
The County’s housing units are primarily single family detached (57%), and homes in
Wilmington are less likely than homes in the balance of county to be single family
detached (48% of units in Wilmington vs. 68% elsewhere). Residential construction as
indicated by residential units permitted has been strong for both single family and
multifamily units with approximately 3,100 total units permitted each year, 2019-2023.
Residential vacancy rates overall have been stable at 13-14% since 2018, though there
has been a slight increase in the proportion of vacant units dedicated to seasonal or
vacation use, particularly in the balance of county. Seasonally occupied units—
including second homes and short term rentals—account for 7% of all units
countywide, 3% in Wilmington, and 12% in the balance of county. Based on this, it is
possible that short term rentals and second homes constrain supply and contribute to
already-rising prices in portions of New Hanover County, outside of Wilmington.
New Hanover County’s median gross rent increased by 38% from $1,064/month in
2018 to $1,466/month in 2023, with faster median gross rent growth in Wilmington
(+44%) than in the balance of county (+26%). Typical market rate asking rents in the
county—what renters would find in searching for a unit without rental assistance—
were higher than median gross rents at $1,702/month in 2023 and $1,726/month in
1 For more information on peer communities or geographic designations, refer to the “Introduction” section.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 2
2024. More than half (53%) of the county’s rental units cost less than $1,000/month in
2018; by 2023, this fell to 21%.
An analysis of multifamily rental units—units occupied by roughly 49% of the county’s
renters—shows that rents for multifamily units have started to decrease on average
since 2022, though it is not clear that rents are decreasing in the rental market overall.
Renters receiving housing choice vouchers are concentrated in Wilmington, and
especially in northwest Wilmington. Income restricted affordable developments are
similarly concentrated: there are currently 3,641 completed income restricted
affordable units, the vast majority (87%) of which are in Wilmington—and mostly in
northwest Wilmington. Affordable units have much lower residential vacancy rates
than market rate rental units, evidence of the need for affordable units. Approximately
one in five (21%) of the county’s completed affordable units are set to expire and will
likely become market rate units by 2031.
Based on five-year (2018 to 2023) changes in median renter household income (+45%),
median gross rent (+38%), and typical asking rent (+57%), the county’s median income
renter households gained purchasing power in the rental market overall but lost
purchasing power in the market for market rate rental units. Because income growth
is due to a combination of wage growth and higher income households moving to the
county (discussed in Section I), apparent gains in rental purchasing power at the
median may not be entirely due to income growth for longtime residents and do not
necessarily reflect improvements households at all income levels.
The median home sales price in New Hanover County increased by 45% from $287,000
in 2020 to $415,000 in 2023, with similar price growth in Wilmington and in the
balance of county. Median home sales prices remain higher in the balance of county
($432,000 in 2023) than in Wilmington ($390,000 in 2023). Nearly two thirds, or 65%, of
homes sold in the county in 2020 sold for $350,000 or less, compared to only 35% of
sales in 2023.
Rising home prices are exacerbated by the increase in mortgage interst rates, which
put downward pressure on purchasing power. While typical home prices increased by
66% between 2018 and 2023, the income required to afford a typical priced home
increased by 113% from $63,770 in 2018 to $135,873 in 2023 (and to $141,141 by
2024) due to rising interest rates. Purchasing power (determined by both income and
interest rates) decreased dramatically for median income households, whose incomes
increased by 52% between 2018 and 2023.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 3
Housing Production Trends
Housing units. Figure II-I shows that as of 2023, there are 123,263 housing units in
New Hanover County. Approximately 55% or 67,396 of the county’s housing units are in
Wilmington, while the remaining 45% or 55,867 units are in the balance of the county.
The number of housing units in the county has increased by 9% in the past five years—a
higher rate than North Carolina and the United States overall. Growth in housing units has
been especially rapid in Wilmington, where the number of housing units increased 13%
since 2018. By comparison, the balance of the county saw a 4% increase since 2018.
Compared to peer counties and cities, New Hanover County and Wilmington’s growth rates
were in the middle of the pack over the 2018-2023 period.
Figure II-I.
Change in Housing Units, New Hanover County, Wilmington, Balance of
County, and Peer Communities, 2000, 2010, 2018, 2020, and 2023
Source: 2000, 2010, and 2020 Decennial Census, 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates, and Root Policy Research.
Study Area
New Hanover County 79,616 101,436 113,231 113,368 123,263 55% 22% 9%
Wilmington 38,678 53,400 59,715 59,484 67,396 74% 26% 13%
Balance of County 40,938 48,036 53,516 53,884 55,867 36% 16% 4%
N.C. and U.S.
North Carolina 3,523,944 4,327,528 4,684,962 4,708,710 4,979,177 41% 15% 6%
United States 115.90 M 131.70 M 138.54 M 140.50 M 145.33 M 25% 10% 5%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 99,683 119,323 125,687 134,146 139,403 40% 17% 11%
Savannah 57,437 61,883 60,460 68,089 69,071 20% 12% 14%
Charleston County, SC 141,031 169,984 191,893 201,884 213,374 51% 26% 11%
Charleston 44,563 59,522 67,006 77,479 78,474 76% 32% 17%
Buncombe County, NC 93,973 113,365 126,577 129,141 137,126 46% 21% 8%
Asheville 33,567 41,626 47,889 47,606 53,772 60% 29% 12%
Guilford County, NC 180,391 218,017 230,468 232,277 240,354 33% 10% 4%
Greensboro 99,305 124,074 132,721 131,976 135,007 36% 9% 2%
Forsyth County, NC 133,093 156,872 166,941 170,176 177,815 34% 13% 7%
Winston-Salem 82,593 103,974 110,472 112,140 117,420 42% 13% 6%
Housing Units Change in Units
2000 2010 2018 2020 2023
2000-
2023
2010-
2023
2018-
2023
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 4
Residential units permitted. Figure II-2 summarizes New Hanover County’s
residential development since 1980 by presenting residential units permitted. An average
of 2,400 units permitted annually in the 1990s, and permitting levels remained similar
(2,600 units permitted annually) between 2000 and 2007. The financial crisis of 2008 led to
a drop in permitting, and fewer than 730 units were permitted each year, 2009 to 2011.
Permitting levels rose across the 2010s, with an average of 1,944 units permitted each year,
2012 to 2018. Since 2019, residential permitting in the county has reached a sustained
peak of around 3,100 units permitted annually.
Figure II-2.
Units Permitted by Units in Structure, New Hanover County, 1980–2023
Source: State of the Cities Data Systems (SOCDS) Building Permits Database.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 5
Data from New Hanover County’s Planning & Land Use department in Figure II-3 show that
building permits were issued for 2,102 new residential units in Wilmington, Carolina Beach,
and the unincorporated areas of New Hanover County in 2024. This count does not reflect
permits issued in the entire county because it does not include permits issued for Kure
Beach and Wrightsville Beach. Just over half (53%) of units permitted in Wilmington,
Carolina Beach, and unincorporated New Hanover County in 2024 were multifamily units.
Figure II-3.
Residential Units Permitted by Structure Type, Wilmington, Carolina
Beach, and Unincorporated New Hanover County, 2024
Source: New Hanover County Department of Planning & Land Use.
Figure II-4 shows that at least half of the county’s residential units permitted in the 1980s,
1990s, 2000s, and 2010s were single family units. Multifamily units received half of permits
issued in the 1980s. The 1990s saw a strong shift toward single family units, with 78% of
permits issued to single family units. Multifamily units received increasing—though still
minority—shares of permits in the 2000s and 2010s. Multifamily units constitute the
majority (54%) of units permitted between 2020 and 2023.
Figure II-4.
Units Permitted by Units in Structure, New Hanover County, 1980–2023
Note: Labels for values of 0% or 1% have been omitted.
Source: SOCDS Building Permits Database and Root Policy Research.
Wilmington 392 110 32 636 40 1,210
Carolina Beach 48 15 14 0 0 77
Unincorporated County 286 37 0 480 12 815
Total 726 162 46 1,116 52 2,102
Total Units
Permitted
Single
Family
Detached
Single
Family
Attached Duplex Multifamily ADUs
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 6
Housing Stock
Unit type. The county’s housing units are primarily single family detached (57%). Units in
small multifamily buildings of 5-19 units and units in large multifamily buildings of 20 or
more units make up the next largest shares of the county’s units at 12% each. Single family
attached homes, such as townhomes, and units in du-/tri-/four-plexes constitute 7% of the
county’s units each. The remaining 4% of housing units in the county are mobile homes.
Within the county,
Units in the balance of county are more likely than units in Wilmington to be single
family detached homes (68% vs. 48%),
Units in Wilmington are more likely than units in the balance of county to be in small
multifamily buildings (17% vs. 3%) and in large multifamily buildings (15% vs. 9%), and
Mobile homes constitute a larger share of the housing stock in the balance of county
(6%) than in Wilmington (2%).
The distribution of housing units by type has shifted slightly since 2018 with growth of units
in large multifamily buildings as a share of the balance of the county’s housing stock and
growth of single family attached units and mobile homes as shares of the housing stock in
Wilmington and the balance of county.
Figure II-5.
Distribution of Housing Units by Type, New Hanover County, Wilmington,
and Balance of County, 2018 and 2023
Source: 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
All housing units
(occupied and vacant)
New Hanover County
2018 59% 5% 10% 13% 11% 3% 0%
2023 57% 7% 7% 12% 12% 4% 0%
Wilmington
2018 48% 5% 13% 18% 15% 1% 0%
2023 48% 7% 11% 17% 15% 2% 0%
Balance of County
2018 72% 5% 6% 7% 6% 5% 0%
2023 68% 6% 3% 7% 9% 6% 0%
Boat, RV,
van, etc.
Single
family
detached
Single
family
attached
Du-/tri-
/four-
plexes
Small
multifam.
(5-19
units)
Large
multifam.
(20+
units)
Mobile
homes
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 7
For added context, Figure II-6 shows the current distribution of all housing units by units by
type in New Hanover County, by area, and in North Carolina, the United States, and all peer
communities for added context.
Figure II-6.
Distribution of Housing Units by Type, New Hanover County, Wilmington,
Balance of County, and Comparison Geographies, 2023
Source: 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
All housing units
(occupied and vacant)
Study Area
New Hanover County 57% 7% 7% 12% 12% 4% 0%
Wilmington 48% 7% 11% 17% 15% 2% 0%
Balance of County 68% 6% 3% 7% 9% 6% 0%
N.C. and U.S.
North Carolina 65% 5% 4% 8% 6% 11% 0%
United States 61% 6% 8% 9% 11% 6% 0%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 62% 5% 11% 11% 7% 4% 0%
Savannah 55% 5% 16% 15% 9% 1% 0%
Charleston County, SC 57% 7% 8% 12% 12% 4% 0%
Charleston 45% 7% 10% 19% 17% 1% 0%
Buncombe County, NC 63% 3% 5% 11% 6% 11% 0%
Asheville 57% 3% 10% 18% 10% 2% 0%
Guilford County, NC 63% 7% 5% 15% 8% 3% 0%
Greensboro 55% 8% 6% 20% 11% 1% 0%
Forsyth County, NC 66% 5% 5% 14% 8% 3% 0%
Winston-Salem 60% 5% 6% 17% 10% 2% 0%
Single
family
detached
Small
multifam.
(5-19
units)
Large
multifam.
(20+
units)
Mobile
homes
Boat, RV,
van, etc.
Single
family
attached
Du-/tri-
/four-
plexes
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 8
Figure II-7 shows that owner households are far more likely than renter households to
occupy single family detached homes (83% vs. 22%), while renter households are more
likely to occupy other types of units:
16% of renters live in du-/tri-/four-plexes compared to 2% of owners;
24% of renters live in units in small multifamily buildings compared to 3% of owners;
25% of renters live in units in large multifamily buildings compared to 2% of owners;
and
6% of renters live in mobile homes compared to 3% of owners.
Owner occupied housing stock is similar in Wilmington and in the balance of New Hanover
County. Renters in the balance of county are more likely than Wilmington renters to live in
single family detached homes and mobile homes, while renters in Wilmington are more
likely to live in attached housing types.
Figure II-7.
Distribution of Housing Units by Type by Tenure, New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2023
Note: Labels on values of 2% or less have been omitted.
Source: 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 9
Bedrooms. Figure II-8 shows distributions of occupied housing units by number of
bedrooms. Approximately 11% of occupied units in New Hanover County are studios or
one-bedrooms, while 63% of the county’s occupied units have three or more bedrooms.
Units in the balance of county tend to have more bedrooms than units in Wilmington: 79%
of occupied units in the balance of county have three or more bedrooms, compared to 50%
of occupied units in Wilmington.
Figure II-8.
Distribution of Housing Units by Bedrooms, New Hanover County,
Wilmington, Balance of County, and Comparison Geographies, 2023
Source: 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
UNCW on-campus housing. New Hanover County is home to The University of
North Carolina at Wilmington (UNCW). As of 2024-2025, UNCW’s on-campus housing
portfolio contains approximately 5,300 beds in various buildings ranging from traditional
Study Area
New Hanover County 2% 9% 26% 44% 15% 4%
Wilmington 3% 12% 34% 36% 11% 4%
Balance of County 0% 5% 16% 54% 20% 5%
N.C. and U.S.
North Carolina 2% 7% 22% 47% 17% 5%
United States 3% 10% 24% 39% 18% 5%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 2% 9% 23% 46% 16% 4%
Savannah 2% 14% 29% 39% 13% 3%
Charleston County, SC 3% 9% 25% 38% 20% 7%
Charleston 4% 13% 27% 34% 16% 6%
Buncombe County, NC 4% 8% 27% 44% 13% 3%
Asheville 7% 11% 34% 33% 12% 3%
Guilford County, NC 2% 8% 26% 42% 17% 5%
Greensboro 2% 10% 29% 39% 16% 4%
Forsyth County, NC 3% 11% 23% 44% 15% 3%
Winston-Salem 3% 14% 26% 40% 14% 2%
5+
BedroomsAll housing units
(occupied and vacant) 0 1 2 3 4
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 10
dorm style units to suites to apartments.2 Approximately 5,247 undergraduate students
live in on-campus housing3 and each building is 95-102% occupied, meaning that utilization
of on-campus housing is very high. The University demolished its oldest residential
building, Galloway Hall, in 2024 and is in early planning stages to replace it with a new
building containing up to 500 beds.
Housing Supply, Occupancy, and Demand
Is housing supply keeping up with household and economic
growth? To understand whether housing supply is keeping up with the change in
household and economic growth, we compare the increase in total units with the increase
in permanent resident households and with the increase in jobs.
Where growth in housing units (which indicates growth in the supply of housing) is
slower than growth in households (which is one indicator of demand for housing),
housing units are increasingly scarce.
Where growth in housing units (which indicates growth in the supply of housing) is
slower than growth in jobs (another indicator of demand for housing), housing units
are failing to keep pace with economic growth.
Across both of the above measures, New Hanover’s housing supply failed to keep pace
with demand between 2013 and 2018 but rebounded in recent years (2018-2023) to track
closely with demand. In other words, current production is on pace with demand, but this
is happening in the context of historic underproduction.
2 Source: UNCW Housing and Residence Life.
3 Source: UNCW Common Data Set 2024-2025, https://uncw.edu/about/university-administration/academic-
affairs/division/areas/irp/data-analytics/common-data-sets
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 11
Figure II-9 shows that in New Hanover County, growth in demand (as indicated by the rate
at which the county added households) outpaced growth in supply (as indicated by the rate
at which the county added housing units) between 2013 and 2018: the number of
households in the county increased by 13% as the number of housing units in the county
increased by 9%. This was especially severe in the balance of the county, where growth in
households was seven percentage points greater than growth in housing units.
Residential construction kept up with demand overall in the county between 2018 and
2023: the number of households in the county increased by 8% as the number of housing
units in the county increased by 9%. This is also true of Wilmington and the balance of the
county.
Figure II-9.
Change in Housing Units and Households, New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2013–2018 and 2018–2023
Source: 2013, 2018, and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
Study Area
New Hanover County 9% 13% 9% 8%-3%0%
Wilmington 7% 8% 13% 13%-1%0%
Balance of County 12% 19% 4% 3%-7%1%
N.C. and U.S.
North Carolina 7% 7% 6% 10% 0%-3%
United States 4% 4% 5% 8% 0%-3%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 3% 4% 11% 14%-1% -3%
Savannah -3% -4% 14% 18% 1%-3%
Charleston County, SC 10% 8% 11% 15% 1%-3%
Charleston 7% 7% 17% 20% 1%-3%
Buncombe County, NC 10% 7% 8% -4% 3% 12%
Asheville 18% 10% 12% -3% 8% 15%
Guilford County, NC 4% 5% 4% 6%-1% -2%
Greensboro 3% 4% 2% 5% 0%-3%
Forsyth County, NC 5% 5% 7% 10% 0%-4%
Winston-Salem 4% 3% 6% 11% 0%-4%
HHs 2013-2018 2018-2023
% Change 2013-
2018
% Change 2018-
2023
% Ch. in Units -
% Ch. in HHs
Units HHs Units
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 12
Figure II-10 shows changes in housing units and jobs, another indicator of demand for
housing. Like the analysis of changes in housing units and households, this analysis shows
that growth in demand outpaced growth in supply of housing units in New Hanover County
between 2013 and 2018, and residential construction kept up with growth in demand
between 2018 and 2022/2023. This is also true of Wilmington and the balance of county.
From 2013 to 2018, the number of jobs in the county increased by 17% as the number
of housing units in the county increased by only 9%.
From 2018 to 2022/2023, the number of jobs in the county increased by 7% as the
number of housing units in the county increased by 9%.
Altogether, current production is on pace with demand, but has not quite overcome the
deficit of production from the previous period.
Figure II-10. Change in Housing Units and Jobs, New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2013–2018 and 2018–2022/2023
Note: 2022 jobs data have been used because 2023 LEHD jobs data are not yet available.
Source: 2013, 2018, 2023 1-year ACS, 2013, 2018, and 2022 Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics (LEHD), Root Policy Research.
Study Area
New Hanover County 9% 17% 9% 7%-8%2%
Wilmington 7% 9% 13% 8%-2%5%
Balance of County 12% 43% 4% 4%-31%0%
State
North Carolina 7% 11% 6% 5%-4%1%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 3% 15% 11% 5%-11%6%
Savannah -3% 6% 14% -3%-9%17%
Charleston County, SC 10% 17% 11% 4%-7%7%
Charleston 7% 13% 17% 3%-5%14%
Buncombe County, NC 10% 14% 8% 5%-3%3%
Asheville 18% 14% 12% 0% 4% 12%
Guilford County, NC 4% 5% 4% 2%-1%3%
Greensboro 3% 6% 2% 1%-2%0%
Forsyth County, NC 5% 7% 7% 0%-2%7%
Winston-Salem 4% 8% 6% 0%-5%7%
Jobs 2013-2018 2018-22/23
% Change 2013-
2018
% Change 2018-
2022/2023
% Ch. in Units -
% Ch. In Jobs
Units Jobs Units
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 13
Residential vacancy. Where housing units are increasingly scarce—or where growth
in households is faster than growth in housing units—residential vacancy rates generally
decrease. Figure II-11 presents residential vacancy rates in 2013, 2018, and 2023.
New Hanover County’s vacancy rate decreased from 16% in 2013 to 13% in 2018 as
residential construction lagged growth in households, then remained relatively stable
overall at 13-14% between 2018 and 2023 as residential construction slightly outpaced
growth in households. Within the county, Wilmington’s vacancy rate decreased slightly
from 12% in 2013 to 11% by 2018, then remained stable overall at 11% in 2023. Vacancy
rates are higher in the balance of the county, which contains the county’s beach towns and
many of the county’s short term rentals and second homes. Approximately 20% of units in
the balance of the county were vacant in 2013, which decreased to 16% by 2018 as
construction failed to keep up with demand. Between 2018 and 2023, residential vacancy
increased slightly, from 16% to 17%.
Figure II-11.
Residential Vacancy
Rate, New Hanover
County,
Wilmington,
Balance of County,
and Comparison
Geographies, 2013,
2018, and 2023
Source:
2013, 2018, and 2023 1-year ACS
estimates and Root Policy Research.
Study Area
New Hanover County 16% 13% 14% -3% 0%
Wilmington 12% 11% 11% -1% 0%
Balance of County 20% 16% 17% -5% 1%
N.C. and U.S.
North Carolina 14% 14% 12% 0% -3%
United States 12% 12% 10% 0% -3%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 15% 14% 12% 0% -3%
Savannah 15% 15% 13% 1% -3%
Charleston County, SC 15% 16% 14% 1% -3%
Charleston 13% 14% 11% 1% -2%
Buncombe County, NC 12% 14% 24% 2% 10%
Asheville 8% 14% 26% 6% 12%
Guilford County, NC 10% 9% 7% -1% -2%
Greensboro 10% 10% 7% 0% -3%
Forsyth County, NC 10% 10% 7% 0% -3%
Winston-Salem 12% 12% 8% 0% -4%
2018-
2023
Ch. in VacancyVacancy Rate
2013 2018 2023
2013-
2018
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 14
Seasonal or vacation use. Figure II-12 shows that the vast majority of vacant units
in the balance of New Hanover County are being held for seasonal and/or vacation use,
including second homes and short term rental units: the 2023 American Community Survey
estimates that 72% of vacant units in the balance of the county are vacant for this purpose,
up from 66% in 2018 and 58% in 2023. This indicates that a small share of all vacant units
in the balance of the county are available to rent or buy. Vacant units in Wilmington are
less likely to be vacant for seasonal and/or vacation use: 28% of the city’s vacant units are
vacant for this purpose as of 2023, down slightly from 28% in 2018 and 33% in 2013.
Figure II-12.
Housing Units by Occupancy Status and Vacancy Reason, Wilmington and
Balance of New Hanover County, 2013, 2018, and 2023
Note: Units vacant for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use includes second homes and short term rental units.
Source: 2013, 2018, and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 15
Overall, and as shown in Figure II-13, the numbers and shares of New Hanover County’s
vacant housing units that are vacant for seasonal and/or vacation use have increased from
47% in 2013 to 49% by 2018 and 52% by 2023. Units that are vacant for seasonal and/or
vacation use constitute a much smaller share of vacant units in North Carolina overall at
32%.
Figure II-13.
Vacant Units and Units
Vacant for Seasonal,
Recreational, or
Occasional Use, New
Hanover County,
Wilmington, Balance
of County, and North
Carolina, 2013, 2018,
and 2023
Note:
Units vacant for seasonal, recreational,
or occasional use includes second
homes and short term rental units.
Source:
2013, 2018, and 2023 1-year ACS
estimates and Root Policy Research.
New Hanover County
2013 16,462 7,809 47%
2018 15,080 7,422 49%
2023 16,905 8,742 52%
Wilmington
2013 6,778 2,233 33%
2018 6,717 1,913 28%
2023 7,666 2,064 27%
Balance of County
2013 9,684 5,576 58%
2018 8,363 5,509 66%
2023 9,239 6,678 72%
North Carolina
2013 637,035 217,830 34%
2018 673,500 207,746 31%
2023 586,508 190,431 32%
PercentNumber
Units Vacant for Seasonal,
Recreational, or Occasional UseTotal Vacant
Units
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 16
Figure II-14 presents the shares of vacant units that are vacant for seasonal, recreational,
or occasional use in all peer communities. Second homes and short term rental units—
approximated by units that are vacant for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use—make
up greater shares of vacant units in New Hanover County than in all peer counties and in
Wilmington than in all peer cities with data available.
Figure II-14.
Share of Vacant Units
Vacant for Seasonal,
Recreational, or Occasional
Use, New Hanover County,
Wilmington, Balance of
County, and Comparison
Geographies, 2013, 2018, and
2023
Note:
Estimates not available for Asheville in 2013 or
Charleston in 2023.
Source:
2013, 2018, and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and
Root Policy Research.
In general, markets where less than 5% of total housing units are vacant for seasonal,
recreational, or occasional use do not experience scarcity of housing units and rapid price
growth as a result of second homes or short term rentals. When 5% to 15% of total housing
units in an area are vacant for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use, second homes and
short term rentals may cause constrained supply and loss of affordability in the broader
housing market. Second homes and short term rentals do cause scarcity in housing units
and price increases in the housing market when more than 15% of housing units are
vacant for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use.
Figure II-15 presents the share of total housing units that are vacant for seasonal,
recreational, or occasional use in order to determine whether second homes or vacation
Study Area
New Hanover County 47% 49% 52%
Wilmington 33% 28% 27%
Balance of County 58% 66% 72%
N.C. and U.S.
North Carolina 34% 31% 32%
United States 33% 32% 32%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 18% 19% 31%
Savannah 12% 18% 19%
Charleston County, SC 32% 36% 34%
Charleston 11% 28% N/A
Buncombe County, NC 41% 28% 15%
Asheville N/A 16% 6%
Guilford County, NC 4% 2% 6%
Greensboro 2% 2% 1%
Forsyth County, NC 9% 11% 12%
Winston-Salem 10% 10% 14%
2013 2018 2023
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 17
homes and short term rentals affect broader housing market dynamics and affordability.
Seasonally occupied units account for 7% of all housing units countywide, 3% in
Wilmington, and 12% in the balance of county. Based on this, short term rentals and
second homes may affect broader market dynamics in New Hanover County, especially
outside of Wilmington. While these rates have remained relatively stable in the past ten
years, it is recommended that New Hanover County continue to track the share of total
housing units that are vacant for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use.
New Hanover County has a higher share of total housing units that are vacant for seasonal,
recreational, or occasional use than any peer county studied, largely due to short term
rentals and second homes in the balance of county.
Figure II-15.
Share of Total Housing
Units Vacant for Seasonal,
Recreational, or
Occasional Use, New
Hanover County,
Wilmington, Balance of
County, and Comparison
Geographies, 2013, 2018,
and 2023
Note:
Estimates not available for Asheville in 2013
or Charleston in 2023.
Source:
2013, 2018, and 2023 1-year ACS estimates
and Root Policy Research.
Note that the balance of county includes both unincorporated New Hanover County and
the beach towns of Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, and Wrightsville Beach, and that units in
the beach towns are more likely than units in unincorporated New Hanover County to be
vacant for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use. Because 1-year American Community
Study Area
New Hanover County 8% 7% 7%
Wilmington 4% 3% 3%
Balance of County 12% 10% 12%
N.C. and U.S.
North Carolina 5% 4% 4%
United States 4% 4% 3%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 3% 3% 4%
Savannah 2% 3% 3%
Charleston County, SC 5% 6% 5%
Charleston 1% 4% N/A
Buncombe County, NC 5% 4% 4%
Asheville N/A 2% 2%
Guilford County, NC 0% 0% 0%
Greensboro 0% 0% 0%
Forsyth County, NC 1% 1% 1%
Winston-Salem 1% 1% 1%
20232013 2018
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 18
Survey (ACS) estimates4 are not available for the beach towns due to their small population
sizes, Figure II-16 uses 5-year ACS estimates5 to approximate the shares of total housing
units that are vacant for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use in these areas. These
estimates show that approximately 42% of total housing units in the beach towns are
vacant for seasonal, recreational, or occasional use, compared to only 2% of units in the
unincorporated county. Based on this, short term rentals and second homes constrain
housing supply broadly in the beach towns.
Figure II-16.
Share of Total Housing Units
Vacant for Seasonal, Recreational,
or Occasional Use, New Hanover
County, Wilmington, Beach
Towns, and Unincorporated, 2013,
2018, and 2023
Note: “Beach Towns” includes Caroliina Beach, Kure Beach,
and Wrightsville Beach.
Source: 2013, 2018, 2023 5-year ACS estimates, and Root
Policy Research.
Short term rentals. This section provides an analysis of short term rental (STR)
activity in New Hanover County using data from AirDNA, an aggregator of data from short
term rental listing services including Airbnb and VRBO. Due to limitations in the provider’s
data, it is not possible to know exactly how many units are in New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and the balance of county (including both unincorporated New Hanover
County and the beach towns of Kure Beach, Carolina Beach, and Wrightsville Beach).
Instead, the analysis is presented for “New Hanover County*”, a location that includes all of
New Hanover County’s short term rental units, as well as some small pockets of short term
rental units near Hampstead in Pender County and near Sunset Harbor and
Leland/Navassa in Brunswick County.
4 1-year estimates reflect a single year of data.
5 5-year estimates reflect average conditions from the five year period leading up to and including a given year. For
example, 2023 5-year ACS estimates reflect 2019-2023.
Study Area
New Hanover County 7% 7% 6%
Wilmington 3% 3% 3%
Balance of County 12% 12% 9%
Beach Towns 44% 45% 42%
Unincoporated 3% 3% 2%
2013 2018 2023
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 19
The map in Figure II-17 presents all active short term rental listings as of January 2025.
While STR units are most concentrated in the beach towns of Wrightsville Beach, Carolina
Beach, and Kure Beach, there are also large numbers of short term rental units in
Wilmington.
Figure II-17.
Active Short Term
Rental Listings, New
Hanover County*,
January 2025
Source:
AirDNA accessed January 2025.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 20
Figure II-18 roughly estimates the number of active STR listings in New Hanover County*
each month from January 2022 to December 2024. The numbers in this figure do not
reflect exact counts of STR listings in New Hanover County—rather, this figure shows that:
The number of STR listings active each month has increased each year since
2022,
STR activity is seasonal, hitting peaks in July and lows in February each year, and
Approximately 95% of short term rental listings in the county are for entire places,
with the other 5% being private rooms.
Figure II-18.
Active Short Term Rental
Listings, New Hanover
County*, 2022–2024
Note:
Includes entire places only. Due to data
limitations, counts include some small
pockets of short term rental units in
Brunswick County near Sunset Harbor and
Leland/Navassa and in Pender County near
Hampstead.
Source:
AirDNA and Root Policy Research.
Figure II-19 presents the distribution of the county’s short term rental listings by annual
availability. Approximately 21% of the county’s STRs are available 1-90 nights/year and 23%
of units are available 91-180 nights/year. These are considered part-time STRs, some of
which may be permanently occupied and rented occasionally, and others of which may be
rented consistently and otherwise vacant or used seasonally. Over half (56%) of the
county’s STR listings are available to rent for more than 180 days/year.
Figure II-19.
Annual Availability of Short Term
Rental Units, New Hanover
County*, 2024-2025
Note:
Includes entire places only. Due to data limitations, data
include some small pockets of short term rental units in
Brunswick County near Sunset Harbor and Leland/Navassa
and in Pender County near Hampstead.
Source:
AirDNA and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 21
Figure II-20 presents the distribution of units used as STRs by number of bedrooms.
Approximately 24% of STRs in the county have one bedroom, 27% have 2 bedrooms, 28%
have 3 bedrooms, 12% have four bedrooms, and 9% have five bedrooms.
Figure II-20.
Distribution of Short Term
Rental Units by Bedrooms,
New Hanover County*, 2024-
2025
Note:
Includes entire places only. Due to data limitations,
counts include some small pockets of short term rental
units in Brunswick County near Sunset Harbor and
Leland/Navassa and in Pender County near Hampstead.
Source:
AirDNA and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 22
Rental Market Trends
Rent. As of 2023, New Hanover County’s median gross rent is $1,466/month, up 38%
from $1,064 in 2018.6 Median gross rent is higher in the balance of the county at
$1,552/month and slightly lower in Wilmington at $1,437/month.
Wilmington saw faster median rent growth than the balance of county between 2018 and
2023: Wilmington’s median gross rent increased by 44% over this time as that in the
balance of county increased by 26%. New Hanover County, Wilmington, and the balance of
the county have higher median gross rents than North Carolina ($1,245/month) and the
United States overall ($1,406/month).
Figure II-21.
Growth in Median
Gross Rent, New
Hanover County,
Wilmington, Balance
of County, and
Comparison
Geographies, 2018–
2023
Note:
* Wilmington MSA estimates are 5-
year ACS estimates reflecting average
conditions in 2014-2018 and 2019-
2023 because 1-year ACS estimates
are not available. Wilmington MSA
estimates are not directly comparable
to all other estimates in the table.
Median gross rent estimates for
Balance of County have been
calculated using renter occupied unit-
weighted averages of median gross
rents in New Hanover County and
Wilmington.
Excludes short term rentals.
Source:
2018 and 2023 5-year (Wilmington
MSA) and 1-year (all other locations)
ACS estimates and Root Policy
Research.
6 Gross rent in the ACS data is defined as the rent price plus the estimated average monthly cost of utilities if these are
paid by the renter that renters pay, accounting for the use of regulated affordable units and vouchers.
Study Area
New Hanover County $1,064 $1,466 38%
Wilmington $998 $1,437 44%
Balance of County $1,232 $1,552 26%
MSA, N.C., and U.S.
Wilmington MSA*$956* $1,313* 37%*
North Carolina $900 $1,245 38%
United States $1,058 $1,406 33%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA $1,060 $1,485 40%
Savannah $1,003 $1,420 42%
Charleston County, SC $1,228 $1,665 36%
Charleston $1,288 $1,728 34%
Buncombe County, NC $973 $1,368 41%
Asheville $1,082 $1,377 27%
Guilford County, NC $872 $1,165 34%
Greensboro $872 $1,199 38%
Forsyth County, NC $789 $1,104 40%
Winston-Salem $773 $1,114 44%
2018-2023
Pct.
Change2018 2023
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 23
Note that the above-presented gross rent data account for the use of regulated affordable
rental units and Section 8 vouchers and don’t necessarily reflect the asking rents that
renters would encounter in searching for a market rate unit. Figure II-22 shows typical
asking rents for market rate units, which are markedly higher than the median gross rents
presented above.7 The typical asking rent for units in New Hanover County was
$1,702/month in 2023, $236 higher than the median gross rent of $1,466/month.
Note that typical asking rents are similar in Wilmington and the balance of county, while
median gross rents are higher in the balance of county ($1,552 in 2023) than in Wilmington
($1,437 in 2023). This is likely because income restricted units and housing choice
vouchers, which factor into median gross rent calculations but are excluded from typical
asking rents, are heavily concentrated in Wilmington.
Figure II-22.
Typical Asking Rent, New Hanover County, Wilmington, and Balance of
County, 2018–2024
Source: Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) and Root Policy Research.
Rent distribution. Figure II-23 presents changes in the distribution of renter occupied
units by gross rent paid—accounting for the use of regulated affordable units and
vouchers—between 2018 and 2023. In the past five years, New Hanover County has lost
units that rent for less than $1,250/month8, with the greatest losses in units that rent for
less than $1,000/month:
53% of the county’s rental units cost less than $1,000/month in 2018, compared to
only 21% in 2023.
The share of renter occupied units that cost $1,250 or more per month more than
doubled from 25% in 2018 to 58% in 2023.
7 These are Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI) estimates. ZORI reflects the mean of listed rents that fall into the 35th to
65th percentile range for all homes and apartments in a given region, which has been weighted to reflect the rental
housing stock.
8 Losses by price-point generally reflect rent increases into a higher price category, not demolition of units.
Study Area
New Hanover County $1,085 $1,184 $1,241 $1,389 $1,646 $1,702 $1,726 46%
Wilmington $1,095 $1,192 $1,249 $1,393 $1,655 $1,708 $1,729 45%
Balance of County $1,060 $1,163 $1,220 $1,376 $1,611 $1,682 $1,719 48%
2023 2024
2019-
2024
% Ch.202220212018 2019 2020
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 24
Price increases occurred across the county. In Wilmington, losses in units renting for less
than $1,000/month were offset by gains in higher priced units: 58% of renter occupied
units in the city were priced at or below $1,000/month, compared to 21% in 2023. The
balance of county experienced losses in units renting for less than $1,250/month: 34% of
renter occupied units were priced at $1,249 or less in 2023, down from 66% in 2018.
Figure II-23.
Distribution of Renter Occupied Units by Gross Rent Paid, New Hanover
County, Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2018 and 2023
Note: Excludes short term rentals.
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 25
Multifamily rental market. This section summarizes New Hanover County’s
multifamily rental market9 using data from multifamily analytics provider CoStar. This
analysis includes 29,093 units in 247 buildings of five or more units—a unit type occupied
by 49% of the county’s renters. Due to data limitations, it is not possible to provide
historical multifamily market indicators for Wilmington and the balance of county
separately. Where possible, current data are provided to summarize market conditions in
Wilmington and the balance of county.
Figure II-24 presents the number of multifamily rental units in New Hanover County each
year since 2010, differentiating between market rate and designated affordable10
multifamily units. There are 29,093 multifamily rental units in New Hanover County as of
2024, 14% of which are designated affordable.
At the time of this analysis in 2025, there are 29,234 multifamily rental units in the county,
including 23,698 units in Wilmington and 5,536 in the balance of county. Multifamily units
are more likely to be designated affordable in Wilmington (15% of multifamily units are
affordable) than in the balance of county (4% of multifamily units are affordable11).
Figure II-24.
Market Rate and Designated Affordable Multifamily Rental Units, New
Hanover County, 2010–2024
Source: CoStar and Root Policy Research.
9 This includes rental units in buildings of five or more units.
10 “Designated affordable” describes the units that CoStar records as “affordable.” These are units with rents that are
discounted or below market rate. This includes, for example, units in properties that receive Low-Income Housing Tax
Credits (LIHTC), units with rents subsidized by HUD Section 8 or other federal programs, and units administered by
Public Housing Authorities.
11 All designated affordable units in the balance of county are in unincorporated New Hanover County. There are no
affordable units in the beach towns of Carolina Beach, Kure Beach, and Wrightsville Beach.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 26
Figure II-25 below presents the number of multifamily units delivered and demolished each
year since 2010. The county experienced net gains in multifamily rental units each year,
2011-2017 and 2019-2024, with particularly strong multifamily construction since 2020.
More units were demolished than delivered in 2018. The figure also shows the number of
multifamily units permitted each year to show that permit issuances are strong predictors
of units to be delivered in the following one or two years.
Figure II-25.
Multifamily Deliveries,
Demolitions, and Units
Permitted, New
Hanover County, 2010–
2024
Note:
Multifamily units permitted include
apartments and condominiums in
buildings of 5+ units. Multifamily units
delivered and demolished include only
apartments in buildings of 5+ units.
Source:
CoStar, SOCDS Building Permits Database,
and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 27
Figure II-26 presents the number of multifamily units by year built. Overall, approximately
47% of the county’s units were built before 2004, 25% were built between 2004 and 2018,
and 28% were built between 2019 and 2024.12 This confirms that multifamily construction
has been strong since a year of negative growth in multifamily units in 2018: more units
were added from 2019 to 2024 than from 2004 to 2018.
Approximately half (51%) of units in Wilmington were built before 2004, compared to 29%
of units in the balance of county. The county’s designated affordable rental units are older
than market rate units, with 74% of designated affordable units built before 2004
compared to 43% of market rate units.
Figure II-26.
Multifamily Rental Units by Year Built, New Hanover County, Wilmington,
and Balance of County, 2025
Note: Year built data are not available for all developments. Developments without year built data are included in the “Multifamily
Rental Units” column but excluded from “Year Built” columns.
Source: CoStar and Root Policy Research.
12 Year built data are not available for all developments. Developments without year built data are excluded from these
calculations.
New Hanover County
All Units 29,234 13,644 7,184 7,990
Market Rate 25,359 10,831 6,621 7,539
Designated Affordable 3,875 2,813 563 451
Wilmington
All Units 23,698 12,087 5,411 5,982
Market Rate 20,044 9,274 4,848 5,752
Designated Affordable 3,654 2,813 563 230
Balance of County
All Units 5,536 1,557 1,773 2,008
Market Rate 5,315 1,557 1,773 1,787
Designated Affordable 221 0 0 221
2019-2024
Year Built:Multifamily
Rental Units Before 2004 2004-2018
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 28
Approximately 10.6% of the county’s multifamily units were vacant in 2024, including 11.5%
of market rate units and 4.9% of designated affordable units (see Figure II-27). In 2024 and
in most other years studied, designated affordable multifamily units had lower vacancy
rates than market rate multifamily units, reflecting high demand for designated affordable
units.
Spikes in vacancy rates of market rate units reflect recently completed developments with
units that have never been leased: more than 1,000 market rate multifamily units were
completed in 2016 and in 2017, and more than 1,700 market rate multifamily units were
completed in 2020, 2023, and 2024. The relatively high 8% vacancy rate of designated
affordable units in 2022 partially reflects the completion of 69 new designated affordable
units that year.
Figure II-27.
Vacancy Rate of
Multifamily Units by
Affordability Status,
New Hanover
County, 2010–2024
Source:
CoStar and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 29
Figure II-28 presents current multifamily vacancy rates—the number of multifamily rental
units that are vacant as a share of total multifamily rental units—in the county, Wilmington,
and the balance of county as of January 2025. To account for new, never leased units, the
table also presents vacancy rates of all units built before 2024. As shown in the “Including
All Units” section of the table, a larger share of multifamily units are vacant in the balance
of county (16.0%), than in Wilmington (9.1%). Accounting for new units in the “Built 2023 or
Earlier” rows, multifamily vacancy is around 8% in Wilmington and the balance of county.
Figure II-28.
Vacancy Rate of
Multifamily Units by
Affordability Status,
New Hanover
County,
Wilmington, and
Balance of County,
January 2025
Source:
CoStar and Root Policy Research.
Including All Units
New Hanover County 4.5% 11.3% 10.4%
Wimington 4.5% 9.9% 9.1%
Balance of County 5.4% 16.4% 16.0%
Built 2023 or Earlier
New Hanover County 4.5% 8.3% 7.7%
Wimington 4.5% 8.3% 7.7%
Balance of County 5.4% 7.9% 7.8%
Designated
Affordable Market Rate
All
Multifamily
Units
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 30
Figure II-29 presents growth in the average effective rent13 of multifamily rental units
overall and by affordability status from 2010 to 2024. Average effective rents for all
multifamily units in New Hanover County rose steadily across the 2010s before
accelerating rapidly between 2020 and 2022, reflecting market rate rents’ response to the
pandemic. Average effective rents decreased and stabilized from 2022 to 2024. The
average effective rent of all multifamily units has increased by 54% since 2010 and by 19%
since 2019, though these periods include a period of decreasing average effective rents
from 2022 to 2024. In 2024, multifamily rental units rent for an average of $1,427/month.
Rents are higher in market rate units at $1,492/month and much lower in designated
affordable units at $1,018/month.
Figure II-29.
Average Effective
Rent of Multifamily
Units by
Affordability Status,
New Hanover
County, 2010–2024
Source:
CoStar and Root Policy Research.
Based on an analysis of current data from January 2025, market rate multifamily units rent
for $1,505/month on average in New Hanover County, for $1,508/month on average in
Wilmington, and $1,492/month on average in the balance of county. Designated affordable
units rent for $962/month on average in the county, $964/month on average in
Wilmington, and $1,476/month on average in the balance of county.
Figure II-30.
Average Effective Rent of
Multifamily Units, New
Hanover County,
Wilmington, and Balance
of County, January 2025
Source:
CoStar and Root Policy Research.
13 Average effective rent is the average rent paid over the lease term by a renter adjusted downward for concessions
paid for by the landlord (such as free rent, moving expenses, or other allowances), and upward for costs that are the
responsibility of the tenant (such as operating expense pass throughs).
New Hanover County $962 $1,505 $1,435
Wimington $964 $1,508 $1,426
Balance of County $925 $1,492 $1,476
Designated
Affordable
Market
Rate
All
Multifamily
Units
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 31
The remainder of this section focuses on rents in market rate multifamily units only in
order to identify what renters who have not been approved for an income restricted unit
would likely find in the market. New market rate multifamily units—those built in 2019 or
later—rent at a premium: these units rent for $1,683/month on average, while those built
in 2004-2018 rent for $1,552/month on average and those built before 2004 rent for
$1,348/month on average.
Figure II-31 presents trends in the average effective rent of market rate multifamily units by
number of bedrooms. Rents for market rate multifamily units of all sizes followed the
trends of rents for market rate multifamily units overall, rising through the 2010s,
increasing rapidly in 2020 to 2022, and decreasing slightly since 2022. In 2024, market rate
studios and one bedroom units had similar average effective rents at $1,300/month and
$1,307/month, respectively. Two bedroom units rent for $1,567/month, while three
bedroom units are most expensive at $1,845/month.
Figure II-31.
Average Effective
Rent of Market Rate
Multifamily Units by
Bedrooms, New
Hanover County,
2010–2024
Source:
CoStar and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 32
Affordable Housing Inventory
Housing choice vouchers. Figure II-32 presents the number of housing choice
vouchers per 100 renter occupied units. Renter households are most likely to have housing
choice vouchers in Census tracts in northwest Wilmington, with relatively high
concentrations across the city’s west side. Very few households receive housing choice
vouchers in other areas of Wilmington and the balance of county, with an exception in the
northwest area of the county including Wrightsboro, Skippers Corner, and the intersection
of I-140 and I-17.
Figure II-32.
Housing Choice
Vouchers per 100
Renter Occupied
Units, New Hanover
County, 2024
Source:
HUD Office of Policy Development
and Research, 2024.
Affordable housing units. Figure II-33 (on the following page) presents the number
of affordable housing developments and units in Wilmington and the Balance of New
Hanover County by status using data from New Hanover County’s Planning and Land Use
Department’s forthcoming affordable housing dashboard. As of February 2025, there are
3,641 income restricted affordable units in 75 developments in New Hanover County—
about 3% of the County’s total housing stock.
The vast majority (87%) of completed affordable units in the county are in Wilmington,
while 13% are in the balance of county. An additional 437 units—278 in Wilmington and
159 in the balance of county—are under construction, and another 43 units—32 in
Wilmington and 11 in the balance of county—have been approved.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 33
Figure II-33.
Income Restricted Affordable Housing Units and Developments Approved,
Under Construction, and Completed, New Hanover County, February 2025
Note: “Approved” projects have entered the development entitlement process and has land use approval, completed site plan
review, and received Technical Review Committee (TRC) approval. Development has broken ground on developments that
are “Under Construction.” “Completed” developments have obtained a Certificate of Occupancy.
Source: New Hanover County Department of Planning and Land Use.
Affordable housing developments are mapped, scaled by size, in Figure II-34. Like housing
choice voucher holders, these developments are concentrated in northwest Wilmington.
Figure II-34.
Income Restricted
Affordable Housing
Developments by Status
and by Size, New Hanover
County, February 2025
Note:
“Approved” projects have entered the
development entitlement process and has
land use approval, completed site plan review,
and received Technical Review Committee
(TRC) approval. Development has broken
ground on developments that are “Under
Construction.” “Completed” developments
have obtained a Certificate of Occupancy.
Source:
New Hanover County Department of Planning
and Land Use.
At least 98% of completed affordable units (3,586 of 3,641 total affordable units) in the
county are for rent, while tenure information is unavailable for the other 2% of completed
New Hanover County 2 43 4 437 75 3,641
Wilmington 1 32 1 278 68 3,162
Balance of County 1 11 3 159 7 479
Approved Completed
Develop.sUnitsDevelop.s Units
Under Construction
Develop.s Units
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 34
affordable units. As indicated by Figure II-35, the county’s forthcoming affordable housing
units—units approved and under construction—include some units for sale.
Figure II-35.
Affordable Housing Units by
Status and Tenure, New Hanover
County, February 2025
Note:
“Approved” projects have entered the development
entitlement process and has land use approval, completed
site plan review, and received Technical Review Committee
(TRC) approval. Development has broken ground on
developments that are “Under Construction.” “Completed”
developments have obtained a Certificate of Occupancy.
Source:
New Hanover County Department of Planning and Land
Use.
In addition to the developments currently approved and under construction, New Hanover
County has three new affordable developments in the pipeline: two developments
containing a total of 244 units in Wilmington (Cape Landing and Avenue Flats) and one
development containing 48 units for sale in the balance of county (Pierson Point).
Based on County data, 1,144 (28%) of the county’s affordable units (including those
completed, approved, and under construction) are reserved for seniors and 771 (19%) are
reserved for people with disabilities. Figure II-36 shows that 1,106 or 27% of the county’s
affordable units are targeted to extremely low income households (earning 30% AMI or
less), 130 units or 3% are targeted to very low income households (earning 50% AMI or
less), 2,288 units or 56% of affordable units are targeted to households earning 60% AMI or
less, and 309 units or 7% of affordable units are targeted to households earning 80% AMI
or less.
Figure II-36.
Approved, Under Construction, and
Completed Affordable Housing
Units by Income Restrictions, New
Hanover County, February 2025
Note:
Income restriction information is not available for 288 units or
7% of affordable units.
Source:
New Hanover County Department of Planning and Land Use.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 35
Figure II-37 presents the shares of approved, under construction, and completed
affordable units in New Hanover County that receive funding from various sources. Note
that shares do not sum to 100% because some developments have multiple sources of
funding—for example, some developments financed with the Low Income Housing Tax
Credit (LIHTC) also have Section 8 project-based rental assistance. The majority (55%) of
completed, approved, and under construction affordable units in the county are Low
Income Housing Tax Credit (LIHTC) units, while public housing accounts for approximately
27% of income restricted units. Section 8 project-based vouchers are in use in 19% of the
county’s affordable units. Eleven percent (11%) of units are HUD insured, while 7% are
funded with HOME allocations. Less than 1% of units are funded by the Section 202
Supportive Housing for the Elderly program.
Figure II-37.
Shares of Approved, Under Construction, and Completed Affordable
Housing Units by Funding Source, New Hanover County, February 2025
Note: “Approved” projects have entered the development entitlement process and has land use approval, completed site plan
review, and received Technical Review Committee (TRC) approval. Development has broken ground on developments that
are “Under Construction.” “Completed” developments have obtained a Certificate of Occupancy.
“LIHTC” stands for Low Income Housing Tax Credit. Section 202 units are supportive housing for the elderly.
Source: New Hanover County Department of Planning and Land Use.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 36
These developments are subject to contracts that specify the time the development must
remain income restricted and affordable. Figure II-38 shows the number of units that are
set to expire each year though 2059. This figure presents low end estimates of the number
of units that will expire each year because expirations are unknown for 1,243 affordable
units, equivalent to 30% of the county’s affordable housing stock. At least 165 affordable
units will expire between 2025 and 2029 before at least 614 units expire in 2030. On the
basis of the data available, fewer than 300 affordable units will expire each year between
2031 and 2059. Expiring affordability contracts often lead to conversion of previously
income restricted units to market rate units, so the county should continue to monitor
upcoming affordability expirations.
Figure II-38.
Affordable Housing Units by Expiration Year, New Hanover County,
February 2025
Note: Affordability expirations are unknown for 1,243 affordable units, equivalent to 30% of the county’s affordable housing stock.
“Approved” projects have entered the development entitlement process and has land use approval, completed site plan
review, and received Technical Review Committee (TRC) approval. Development has broken ground on developments that
are “Under Construction.” “Completed” developments have obtained a Certificate of Occupancy.
Source: New Hanover County Department of Planning and Land Use.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 37
Home Sales Market Trends
Typical home prices. Figures II-39 and II-40 present typical home prices using the
Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI).14 15 In 2024, New Hanover County’s typical home price was
$424,433, up 67% from $254,870 in 2019. Wilmington’s typical home price of $403,242 in
2024 was up 66% from $243,590 in 2019, while the typical home price in the balance of the
county, $441,166 in 2024, was up 67% from $264,095 in 2019.
Typical home prices in New Hanover County are higher than typical home prices in North
Carolina ($324,550) and the United States ($354,558), and home prices have increased
faster in New Hanover County (+67% from 2019-2024) than in North Carolina (+62% from
2019-2024) and the United States (+49% from 2019-2024) in the past five years. In the past
five years, home prices and home price growth were similar in New Hanover County and in
the Wilmington MSA overall.
Figure II-39.
Typical Home Price,
New Hanover
County,
Wilmington,
Balance of County,
and Comparison
Geographies, 2019–
2024
Note:
Typical home price estimates for
Balance of County have been
calculated using owner occupied
unit-weighted averages of typical
home values in New Hanover
County and Wilmington.
Estimates include all units for sale,
both occupied and vacant.
Source:
Zillow Home Value Index and Root
Policy Research.
14 The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) reflects the typical value for homes in the 35th to 65th percentile range. The
ZHIVI is presented here instead of ACS median home values because ACS median home values include only owner-
occupied homes and exclude homes being used seasonally or as short term rentals.
15 ZHVI data, rather than median home sales prices, are presented because they are available for all peer communities
and are available for all years since 2003. Median home sales prices, presented later in this section, are only available for
New Hanover County, Wilmington, and the balance of county because they rely on local Assessor data. Home sales data
are only available for 2020-2023 and cannot show 5-year change or broad historical change.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 38
Figure II-40.
Growth in Typical
Home Price, New
Hanover County,
Wilmington,
Balance of County,
and Comparison
Geographies, 2019–
2024
Note:
Typical home price estimates for
Balance of County have been
calculated using owner occupied
unit-weighted averages of typical
home values in New Hanover
County and Wilmington.
Estimates include all units for sale,
both occupied and vacant.
Source:
Zillow Home Value Index and Root
Policy Research.
Study Area
New Hanover County $254,870 $424,433 67%
Wilmington $243,590 $403,242 66%
Balance of County $264,095 $441,166 67%
MSA, N.C., and U.S.
Wilmington MSA $258,959 $426,608 65%
North Carolina $200,754 $324,550 62%
United States $238,683 $354,558 49%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA $196,663 $334,165 70%
Savannah $181,420 $317,776 75%
Charleston County, SC $337,526 $579,704 72%
Charleston $328,934 $553,817 68%
Buncombe County, NC $291,173 $453,785 56%
Asheville $302,477 $464,592 54%
Guilford County, NC $166,576 $263,004 58%
Greensboro $158,410 $253,205 60%
Forsyth County, NC $168,263 $269,060 60%
Winston-Salem $152,346 $249,673 64%
2019 2024
2019-2024
Pct.
Change
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 39
Median home sales price. While Figures II-39 and II-40 show ZHVI typical home
prices, Figure II-41 uses New Hanover County Assessor data to present median home sales
prices each year, 2020 to 2023. The median sales price in New Hanover County was
$415,000 in 2023, up from $287,000 in 2020 (a 45% increase). Growth in median home
sales prices was similar in Wilmington and in the balance of the county at around +44-45%
between 2020 and 2023, and median home sales prices remain higher in the balance of
county at $432,000 than in Wilmington at $390,000.
Figure II-41.
Median Sales Price and Income Needed to Afford Median Priced Home,
New Hanover County, Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2020–2023
Note: Data are not provided for jurisdictions and years with fewer than 20 home sales. Includes all types of homes.
Purchase affordability calculations assume a 30-year mortgage at average annual interest rates with a 10% down payment
and 30% of the monthly housing payment to other expenses including property taxes, HOA fees, and utilities.
Source: New Hanover County Assessor and Root Policy Research.
This information is presented for all jurisdictions and Census designated places in New
Hanover County in the table on the following page. As of 2023, Wrightsville Beach has by
far the highest median home sales price at $1,300,000, followed by Kure Beach at
$633,000. Median sales prices are lowest—between $334,000 and $350,000—in
Murrayville, Kings Grant, Northchase, and Silver Lake.
Median Home Sales Price
New Hanover County $287,000 $320,000 $370,000 $415,000 45%
Wilmington $269,000 $295,000 $355,000 $390,250 45%
Balance of County $300,000 $334,000 $382,250 $432,000 44%
2020 2021 2022 2023
2020-2023
Pct. Change
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 40
Figure II-42.
Median Home Sales Price, New Hanover County and by Jurisdiction and
Census Designated Place, 2020–2023
Note: Data are not provided for jurisdictions and years with fewer than 20 home sales. Includes all types of homes.
* “Unincorporated County” includes all areas of the county not included in Wilmington, a jurisdiction, or a Census designated
place (all listed separately in the table).
Source: New Hanover County Assessor and Root Policy Research.
Median Home Sales Price
Study Area
New Hanover County $287,000 $320,000 $370,000 $415,000 45%
Wilmington $269,000 $295,000 $355,000 $390,250 45%
Balance of County $300,000 $334,000 $382,250 $432,000 44%
Jurisdictions and Census Designated Places in Balance of County
Bayshore $365,000 $415,000 $455,000 $440,000 21%
Blue Clay Farms $304,000 - - - N/A
Carolina Beach $350,000 $410,000 $515,000 $549,500 57%
Castle Hayne - - $255,750 - N/A
Hightsville - - - - N/A
Kings Grant $223,000 $262,000 $309,000 $340,000 52%
Kure Beach $482,500 $616,750 $639,000 $633,000 31%
Murrayville $235,000 $265,000 $315,000 $334,000 42%
Myrtle Grove $341,500 $389,000 $438,000 $480,000 41%
Northchase $230,000 $252,750 $298,000 $343,000 49%
Ogden $367,500 $405,750 $499,750 $610,000 66%
Porters Neck $425,000 $472,500 $605,000 $620,000 46%
Sea Breeze $274,500 $337,000 $357,000 $431,000 57%
Silver Lake $227,000 $261,250 $319,000 $350,000 54%
Skippers Corner $271,250 $322,500 $349,000 $379,500 40%
Wrightsboro $248,000 $261,500 $330,000 $370,000 49%
Wrightsville Beach $912,500 $1,030,000 $1,200,000 $1,300,000 42%
Unincorporated County*$290,000 $307,000 $351,000 $378,500 31%
2020 2021 2022 2023
2020-2023
Pct. Change
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 41
Prices by unit type. Building on the analysis of overall homes sales prices in Figures
II-41 and II-42, Figure II-43 shows variation in median home sales prices by unit type. Du-
/tri-/four-plexes have the highest median sales price in the county, largely because 84% of
these sales were located in Wrightsville Beach, Kure Beach, and Carolina Beach. Single
family detached homes had the second highest median price at $443,500, followed by
townhomes at $357,500 and condominiums at $334,000. Manufactured/mobile homes had
the lowest median sales price at $206,250. Note that most mobile home owners do not
own the land under their home and pay a monthly lot rent, which can dramatically
decrease affordability. Rising lot rents frequently cause housing instability for mobile home
owners.
Figure II-43.
Median Home Sales Price by Unit Type, New Hanover County, Wilmington,
and Balance of County, 2020–2023
Note: Data are not provided for jurisdictions and years with fewer than 20 home sales.
Source: New Hanover County Assessor and Root Policy Research.
New Hanover County
Single family detached $298,000 $339,000 $395,000 $443,500 49%
Townhome $265,000 $260,000 $320,000 $357,500 35%
Du-/tri-/four-plex $470,000 $651,250 $650,000 $795,000 69%
Condominium $200,000 $232,500 $301,000 $334,000 67%
Manufactured home $172,000 $170,000 $209,500 $206,250 20%
Wilmington
Single family detached $292,750 $350,000 $404,000 $452,000 54%
Townhome - $250,000 $315,000 $354,250 N/A
Du-/tri-/four-plex - - - - N/A
Condominium $146,500 $170,000 $219,000 $245,000 67%
Manufactured home - - - - N/A
Balance of County
Single family detached $300,000 $330,000 $386,500 $432,500 44%
Townhome - $279,500 $324,750 $358,000 N/A
Du-/tri-/four-plex $480,000 $688,000 $677,500 $800,000 67%
Condominium $280,000 $358,000 $415,000 $444,500 59%
Manufactured home - $170,000 $205,000 $200,000 N/A
2021 2022
% Change
2020-20232020 2023
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 42
Home price distribution. Figure II-44 presents the distributions of homes sold in
2020 and 2023 by sales price. Nearly two thirds, or 65%, of homes sold in the county in
2020 sold for $350,000 or less, compared to only 35% of homes sold in 2023.
Approximately 16% of the county’s home sales in 2020 were priced at or above $500,000—
by 2023, this rose to 35%.
Broad price increases occurred across the county. In Wilmington, 69% of homes sold for
less than $350,000 in 2020, compared to only 42% in 2023, and the share of home sales
priced at or above $500,000 more than doubled from 14% in 2020 to 31% in 2023. In the
balance of county, the share of homes selling for $350,000 or less decreased by more than
half from 63% in 2020 to 30% in 2023 as the share of homes selling for $500,000 or more
increased from 18% in 2020 to 38% in 2023.
Figure II-44.
Home Sales Price Distribution, New Hanover County, Wilmington, and
Balance of County, 2020 and 2023
Note: Data are not provided for jurisdictions and years with fewer than 20 home sales. Includes all types of homes.
Source: New Hanover County Assessor and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 43
Changes in Rents, Home Prices, and Incomes
Changes in rents, home prices, and incomes are summarized in Figure II-45. When
discussing changes in median incomes, recall that households moving to New Hanover
County have higher average annual incomes than households leaving New Hanover
County, suggesting that moderate income households are moving into the county as lower
income households leave the county for more affordable areas.16 Increases in median
incomes shown in this table are partially due to trends in migration rather than income
growth for longtime residents.
In New Hanover County, between 2018 and 2023, growth in median renter household
income (+45%) outpaced growth in median gross rent (+38%) but was slower than growth
in typical asking rent (+57%). The county’s median income renter households gained
purchasing power in the rental market when accounting for the use of regulated
affordable units and vouchers, but lost purchasing power in the market for market
rate rental units. Because income growth is partially due to the in-migration of
moderate income households, it is not clear that longtime residents gained purchasing
power in the rental market overall—apparent gains in purchasing power could be the
result of new residents’ higher incomes. The income required to afford a typical priced
home more than doubled, increasing by 113%, between 2018 and 2023—driven by both
rising prices and higher interest rates—while median household income increased by only
52%.
New Hanover County’s typical home price increased by from $243,578 in 2018 to $404,844
in 2023 (a 66% increase) and to $424,433 by 2024. While typical home prices increased by
66% between 2018 and 2023, the income required to afford a typical priced home
increased by 113% from $63,770 in 2018 to $135,873 in 2023 (and to $141,141 by 2024)
due to rising interest rates. Median household income increased by only 52%
between 2018 and 2023, resulting in a significant loss of purchasing power in the
home purchase market.
By area, losses in purchase affordability affected households in both Wilmington and the
balance of county between 2018 and 2023. Wilmington renter households lost purchasing
power in the rental market between 2018 and 2023 as median renter household income
increased by 43%, median gross income increased by 44%, and typical asking rent
increased by 56%. Renters in the balance of county gained purchasing power in the rental
market overall over this time as the increase in median renter household income (+52%)
was greater than the simultaneous increases in median gross rent (+26%) but saw a slight
loss of purchasing power for market rate units as typical asking rent increased by 59%).
16 This is a key finding from an analysis of IRS data in Section I of this report. See Figure I-30.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION II, PAGE 44
Section III of this report contains a full discussion of changes in rental and purchase
affordability in New Hanover County.
Figure II-45.
Summary of Changes in Income, Rents, and Home Prices, New Hanover
County, Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2018–2023/24
Note: 2024 estimates of median household income and median gross rent are not yet available.
Purchase affordability calculations assume a 30-year mortgage with annual average interest rates, a 10% down payment, and
30% of housing expenses to property taxes, HOA fees, utilities, and other expenses.
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates, Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI), FRED from the
Federal Reserve of St. Louis, and Root Policy Research.
New Hanover County
Median Household Income $52,239 $79,547 - 52%
Median Renter Household Income $36,523 $52,803 - 45%
Median Gross Rent $1,064 $1,466 - 38%
Typical Asking Rent $1,085 $1,702 $1,726 57%
Typical Home Price $243,578 $404,844 $424,433 66%
Income Required to Afford Typical Priced Home $63,770 $135,873 $141,141 113%
Wilmington
Median Household Income $46,488 $71,362 - 54%
Median Renter Household Income $32,794 $47,005 - 43%
Median Gross Rent $998 $1,437 - 44%
Typical Asking Rent $1,095 $1,708 $1,729 56%
Typical Home Price $233,042 $384,359 $403,242 65%
Income Required to Afford Typical Priced Home $61,012 $128,998 $134,094 111%
Balance of County
Median Household Income $58,989 $90,032 - 53%
Median Renter Household Income $46,026 $69,990 - 52%
Median Gross Rent $1,232 $1,552 - 26%
Typical Asking Rent $1,060 $1,682 $1,719 59%
Typical Home Price $250,580 $421,019 $441,166 68%
Income Required to Afford Typical Priced Home $65,603 $141,302 $146,705 115%
2023 2024
2018-2023
Pct. Change2018
SECTION III.
HOUSING NEEDS—GAPS AND BARRIERS ANALYSIS
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 1
SECTION III.
Housing Needs—Gaps and Barriers Analysis
This section evaluates gaps in housing affordability and barriers to housing security in New
Hanover County, the City of Wilmington, and the balance of New Hanover County (defined
as all areas of New Hanover County that are outside of Wilmington) and contextualizes
these with state level and national trends. Where relevant, this report compares trends in
New Hanover County and Wilmington to those in peer communities.1
The discussion centers on housing cost burden, rental and home purchase affordability,
barriers to homeownership, and trends in homelessness. The section concludes with
projections of future housing demand.
Background
Defining affordability. The most common measure of affordability assesses the
“burden” housing costs put on a household. If a household pays more than 30% of their
gross income for rent or mortgage payments (including taxes and basic utilities), they are
considered to be cost burdened. The higher the cost burden, the higher the risk of eviction,
foreclosure, and homelessness due to the challenges of managing housing costs.
Households spending 50% or more of their income on housing are severely cost burdened
and considered at risk of homelessness. These households have limited capacity to adjust
to rising home prices and are vulnerable to even minor shifts in rents, property taxes,
and/or incomes.
Cost burden is important
because it also indicates
how well a household
can manage other
expenses—e.g.,
childcare, transportation,
health care—and how
much disposable income
they have to contribute
to the economy.
1 For more information on peer communities or geographic designations, refer to the “Introduction” section.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 2
Key Findings
Approximately 35,000 households—including 53% of renters and 21% of owners—are
cost burdened in New Hanover County. Cost burden has increased for renters at all
income levels—and especially for renters earning $35,000 to $74,999.
Ownership affordability declined as home prices rose faster than incomes and rising
interest rates further constrained buying power. The income required to afford a
median priced home more than doubled since 2020. The county’s median sales price
exceeded the maximum affordable price for median income households by $178,000.
The average wage worker in key industries struggles to afford median gross rent in
New Hanover County and the average wage worker in all industries struggles to afford
the median home price:
Median gross rent is unaffordable to single earner households earning average
wages in four industries which together account for 42% of the county’s
employment. Two earner households earning average wages in every industry
except for leisure and hospitality (which accounts for 17% of employment) could
afford median gross rent. Workers earning average wages in leisure and
hospitality would be cost burdened even by renting an average priced
designated affordable unit.
Purchasing a median priced home is unaffordable to single earner households
earning average wages in every industry in New Hanover County. Average two
earner households in only four industries which together account for 30% of the
county’s total employment can afford to purchase a median-priced home.
An affordability gaps analysis shows that New Hanover County’s rental market is failing
to serve existing residents and workers earning less than 80% AMI. Current rental
needs are concentrated below 50% AMI, where there is a shortage of 7,377 affordable
units for existing residents. Rental affordability gaps have narrowed slightly since
2019, though this is partially because lower income renter households have moved
out of the county as higher income households have moved to the county, inflating the
wage-driven growth in renter incomes.
In the for-sale market, current affordability needs for first-time buyers are
concentrated below 120% AMI but extend up to 150% AMI—or home prices below
$325,000. In Wilmington, purchase affordability needs are concentrated below 100%
AMI. Purchase affordability gaps have widened significantly since 2020, when purchase
affordability needs were concentrated below 60% AMI in New Hanover County, below
50% AMI in Wilmington, and below 80% AMI in the balance of county. Losses in
purchase affordability between 2019/2020 and 2023/2024 are due to rising home
prices and higher interest rates.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 3
Homelessness is rising in the Cape Fear Homeless Continuum of Care (CFHCoC)’s
service area of New Hanover, Brunswick, and Pender counties: Point-in-Time Counts
identified 593 people experiencing homelessness in 2024, up from 558 people in 2023
and between 300 and 440 people each year from 2015 to 2022. This is tied to
increases in unsheltered homelessness and chronic homelessness. For the first time,
the majority (54%) of people experiencing homelessness were unsheltered in 2024.
African American residents are overrepresented in the CFHCoC’s homeless population
and are more vulnerable to homelessness than residents of other races and
ethnicities.
Black or African American households have a disproportionately high mortgage
application denial rate (19%) relative to the denial rates of non-Hispanic White
households (6%) and households overall (7%), and this is not explained by differences
in household income by race and ethnicity.
Debt to income ratio is the biggest barrier to mortgage financing for households of all
income levels and all races and ethnicities. Credit history and collateral are also
significant barriers.
To keep up with projected growth, the county needs to add 21,187 new units in the
next ten years and 38,697 new units in the next twenty years.
Of those units, 61% (21,906 in the next twenty years) would need to be for
ownership to maintain current homeownership levels.
Aligning those units with the county’s current income distribution suggests that
of the units needed in the next twenty years, 8,589 units should be affordable to
households with incomes below 50% AMI, 5,978 affordable to 51%-80% AMI,
6,662 affordable to 81%-120% AMI, 4,196 affordable to 121%-150% AMI, and
13,272 units above 150% AMI.
The market is most likely to deliver rental units above 50% AMI and ownership
units above 150% AMI; but public assistance is likely needed to create rental
below 50% AMI and ownership products below 150% AMI.
Cost Burden
As introduced in the “Background” at the beginning of this section, cost burden occurs
when a household spends more than 30% of its gross income on housing costs. Severe
cost burden occurs when households spend more than 50% of their income on housing
costs. Severely cost burdened households are considered at risk for homelessness.
One-third of all New Hanover Couty households are cost burdened. Cost burden was
higher in Wilmington (affecting 38% of households) than in the balance of county (affecting
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 4
29% of households), likely due to Wilmington’s lower homeownership rate (renters are
more likely to be cost burdened).
Figure III-1.
Cost Burden and
Severe Cost Burden,
New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and
Balance of County,
2023
Source:
2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root
Policy Research.
Figure III-2 presents cost burden by tenure. More than half (53%) of renter households in
the county, in Wilmington, and in the balance of county are cost burdened (including cost
burden and severe cost burden) as of 2023. Renter households are more likely to
experience severe cost burden and be at risk for homelessness than owner households are
to experience any level of cost burden. In 2023, 22% of owners in New Hanover County,
21% of owners in Wilmington, and 22% of owners in the balance of county are cost
burdened.
Figure III-2.
Cost Burden and
Severe Cost
Burden by
Tenure, New
Hanover County,
Wilmington, and
Balance of
County, 2023
Source:
2018 and 2023 1-year ACS
estimates and Root Policy
Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 5
Figure III-3 shows that cost burden has increased for renters at all income levels—and
especially for renters earning $35,000 to $74,999. The overall decrease in cost burden is
the result of increasing renter incomes2 rather than increased access to low cost rental
units.
Figure III-3 shows a similar trend for owner cost burden: the share of owner households
experiencing cost burden has decreased overall since 2018, but owner households earning
less than $35,000 and between $50,000 and $150,000 have experienced increases in cost
burden.
Figure III-3.
Cost Burden by Tenure by Income, New Hanover County, 2018 and 2023
Note: This figure uses 5-year ACS estimates because 1-year ACS estimates are not available.
Source: 2018 and 2023 5-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
2 Refer to Section II of this report for more information on drivers of renter income trends.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 6
Figure III-4 summarizes these findings and presents rates of overall cost burden (including
cost burden and severe cost burden) for renters, homeowners, and households overall in
North Carolina, the United States, and all peer communities.
Renters in New Hanover County are slightly more likely than renters in North Carolina
overall to be cost burdened (53% vs. 49%) and roughly as likely as renters in the United
States to be cost burdened (53% vs. 52%).
New Hanover County’s homeowners are slightly more likely than North Carolina
homeowners to be cost burdened (22% vs. 20%) and roughly as likely as homeowners
in the United States to be cost burdened (22% vs. 23%).
Figure III-4.
Change in Cost Burden by Tenure, New Hanover County, Wilmington,
Balance of County, and Peer Communities, 2018-2023
Note: Rates include both cost burden (paying 30-49% of income) and severe cost burden (paying 50% or more of income).
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates and Root Policy Research.
Study Area
New Hanover County 56% 53% -3% 27% 22% -5% 40% 34% -6%
Wilmington 59% 53% -6% 28% 21% -7% 46% 38% -9%
Balance of County 49% 53% 4% 26% 22% -4% 32% 29% -3%
State and Nation
North Carolina 48% 49% 1% 20% 20% 0% 29% 29% 0%
United States 50% 52% 2% 23% 23% 1% 32% 33% 1%
Peer Communities
Chatham County, GA 53% 51% -2% 20% 24% 5% 34% 36% 2%
Savannah 51% 56% 4% 27% 28% 1% 40% 43% 4%
Charleston County, SC 52% 50% -3% 25% 23% -2% 35% 32% -3%
Charleston 45% 52% 8% 26% 21% -5% 33% 34% 1%
Buncombe County, NC 53% 52% -1% 20% 21% 1% 31% 31% 0%
Asheville 55% 56% 1% 22% 24% 2% 38% 39% 0%
Guilford County, NC 49% 53% 4% 20% 20% 0% 32% 33% 0%
Greensboro 49% 53% 4% 20% 22% 2% 35% 37% 2%
Forsyth County, NC 48% 50% 2% 19% 18% 0% 31% 30% -1%
Winston-Salem 50% 55% 6% 20% 21% 1% 34% 36% 2%
Ch. 2018 2023 Ch.
Renters Homeowners Overall
2018 2023 Ch. 2018 2023
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 7
Rental Affordability
Median gross rent and typical asking rent. In 2023, the county’s renter
households had a median income of $52,803, capable of paying up to $1,320/month for
housing (without being cost burdened). As shown in the figure below, New Hanover
County’s typical asking rents for market rate units of $1,702 in 2023 and $1,726 in 2024 are
unaffordable to median earning renter households.
Even accounting for the use of regulated affordable units and vouchers, median gross
rents in New Hanover County ($1,466), Wilmington ($1,437), and the balance of county
($1,552) are higher than median income renter households can afford. Median income
renter households in New Hanover County have not been able to afford median
gross rent or the typical asking rent for market rate units since at least 2015.
Figure III-5.
Median Gross Rent, Typical Asking Rent, and Maximum Affordable Rent at
Median Renter Household Income, New Hanover County, Wilmington, and
Balance of County, 2015–2024
Note: Median renter household income is that of New Hanover County overall. 5-year estimates are presented for 2020 because 1-
year estimates are not available. Median gross rent and typical asking rent include all types of rental units.
Median gross rent estimates account for the use of income restricted rental units and Section 8 vouchers and don’t
necessarily reflect the rents that renters would encounter in searching for a market rate unit. Typical asking rent estimates
exclude income restricted units and voucher use, so they better reflect what renters would find in the market. Both median
gross rent and typical asking rent include all types of rental units, from single family detached units to units in large
multifamily apartment buildings.
Source: 2015-2019 and 2021-2023 1-year ACS estimates, 2020 5-year ACS estimates, Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), and Root
Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 8
All units and multifamily units. The table in Figure III-6 shows rental affordability
changes by location, comparing the maximum affordable rent at median renter incomes
with median rents. It also presents average effective rents3 of multifamily rental units4 for
both market rate and designated affordable5 multifamily units though these data are only
available at the county level. “Rents” boxes are green where median renter households can
afford rent and red where median renters cannot afford rent.
Figure III-6.
Maximum Affordable Rent for Median Income Renters and Rents, New
Hanover County, Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2018 and 2023
Note: Green boxes indicate that rent is affordable at median renter household income. Red boxes indicate that rent is not
affordable at median renter household income.
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates, Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), and Root Policy Research.
3 Average effective rent is the average rent paid over the lease term by a renter adjusted downward for concessions
paid for by the landlord (such as free rent, moving expenses, or other allowances), and upward for costs that are the
responsibility of the tenant (such as operating expense pass throughs).
4 This includes rental units in buildings of five or more units.
5 “Designated affordable” describes the units that CoStar records as “affordable.” These are units with rents that are
discounted or below market rate. This includes, for example, units in properties that receive Low-Income Housing Tax
Credits (LIHTC), units with rents subsidized by HUD Section 8 or other federal programs, and units administered by
Public Housing Authorities.
New Hanover County
2018 $913 $1,064 $1,085 $1,223 $812
2023 $1,320 $1,466 $1,702 $1,513 $949
Wilmington
2018 $820 $998 $1,095 $1,223 $812
2023 $1,175 $1,437 $1,708 $1,513 $949
Balance of County
2018 $1,151 $1,232 $1,060 $1,223 $812
2023 $1,750 $1,552 $1,682 $1,513 $949
Typical Asking
Rent (All Units)
Avg. Rent:
Market Rate
Multifamily
Units*
Avg. Rent:
Designated
Affordable
Multifamily
Units*
Median Gross
Rent (All Units)
Rents:
Max Affordable
Rent at Median
Renter HH
Income
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 9
Median income renters in New Hanover County overall could not afford median gross rent
or typical asking rent in either 2018 or 2023. This was also the case in Wilmington. In the
balance of county, where median renter household incomes are higher, typical asking rent
was affordable to median income renters in 2018 and 2023, while median gross rent has
become affordable to median income renters since 2018. Trends were similar for market
rate multifamily units.
Figure III-7 (below) presents this information in terms of median renter household income
and income required to afford rents. (In other words, it shows the same affordability
challenges as the previous figure, but in income terms rather than rent terms).
Figure III-7.
Median Renter Household Income and Income Needed to Afford Rents,
New Hanover County, Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2018 and 2023
Note: Historical data on average effective rents for market rate and designated affordable multifamily units are not available for
Wilmington and the balance of county separately. The analysis below presents differences in current multifamily rental
affordability by location within the county.
Green boxes indicate that rent is affordable at median renter household income. Red boxes indicate that rent is not
affordable at median renter household income.
Source: 2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates, CoStar, Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), and Root Policy Research.
New Hanover County
2018 $36,523 $42,560 $43,395 $48,920 $32,480
2023 $52,803 $58,640 $68,064 $60,520 $37,960
Wilmington
2018 $32,794 $39,920 $43,792 $48,920 $32,480
2023 $47,005 $57,480 $68,335 $60,520 $37,960
Balance of County
2018 $46,026 $49,288 $42,384 $48,920 $32,480
2023 $69,990 $62,079 $67,260 $60,520 $37,960
Income Needed to Afford:
Median Renter
Household
Income
Median Gross
Rent (All Units)
Typical Asking
Rent (All Units)
Avg. Rent:
Market Rate
Multifamily
Units*
Avg. Rent:
Designated
Affordable
Multifamily
Units*
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 10
Multifamily rental affordability by location. The previous figure includes
historical average effective rents for multifamily rental units in New Hanover County from
2018 and 2023. Because historical average effective rents are not available for Wilmington
and the balance of county separately, Figure III-8 presents current average effective rents
for multifamily rental units in Wilmington and the balance of county as of January 2025, as
well as the incomes required to afford them.
As of January 2025, market rate multifamily units—units that renters who have not been
approved to live in an income restricted unit would find in the rental market—rent for
$1,505/month on average in New Hanover County. To afford this, a household would need
an annual income of $60,180. To afford a designated affordable unit, which rent for
$962/month on average in New Hanover County, a household would need an annual
income of $38,493. Note that designated affordable developments often have long waitlists
and are not immediately available to households that need them.
Figure III-8.
Average Effective Rent of Multifamily Units and Income Needed to Afford,
New Hanover County, Wilmington, and Balance of County, January 2025
Source: CoStar and Root Policy Research.
Rental affordability by employment industry. Figure III-9 presents the
maximum affordable rent for workers earning average pay by employment industry in
2018 and 2023 and compares this with median gross rent, typical asking rent, and average
effective rents for market rate and designated affordable multifamily units in New Hanover
County in those years. The figure presents affordable rents for single earner households in
green, and those for two earner households in blue, assuming that both earners in a two
earner household work in the same industry.
Average Effective Rent
New Hanover County $962 $1,505 $1,435
Wimington $964 $1,508 $1,426
Balance of County $925 $1,492 $1,476
Income Needed to Afford Average Rent
New Hanover County $38,493 $60,180 $57,407
Wimington $38,559 $60,305 $57,042
Balance of County $37,017 $59,695 $59,022
Designated
Affordable Units
Market Rate
Units
All Multifamily
Units
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 11
Figure III-9.
Rents Affordable to Single Earner and Two Earner Households by
Employment Industry and Median Gross Rent, Typical Asking Rent, and
Average Rents of Multifamily Units, New Hanover County, 2020 and 2023
Note: All employment industries are private employment only. Public school teacher salary, included to supplement the industries
provided in QCEW data, is the salary of a certified New Hanover County public school teacher with a bachelor’s degree and
ten years of experience or a master’s degree and five years of experience.
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), North Carolina Public School Teacher Salary Schedules for 2020/2021,
2018 and 2023 1-year ACS estimates, Zillow Observed Rent Index (ZORI), CoStar, and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 12
In 2018, single earners earning average wages in the manufacturing, information, financial
activities, professional and business services, construction, and education and health
services industries—industries which accounted for 53% of employment in the county—
could have afforded median gross rent and typical asking rent. Households with two
earners earning average wages in all industries except for leisure and hospitality—
industries which accounted for 81% of the county’s employment—could afford median
gross rent and typical asking rent. Single earners earning average pay in leisure and
hospitality and other services—industries which accounted for 23% of employment—could
not have afforded an average priced designated affordable unit. These households were
likely to be cost burdened even if they lived in an income restricted unit.
Between 2018 and 2023, typical asking rent became less affordable to average earning
workers, while median gross rent remained affordable to average earning workers in the
same industries. In 2023, single earners earning average wages in only information,
financial activities, manufacturing, and professional and business services—industries
which accounted for 30% of employment—could afford typical asking rent. Single earners
earning average pay in these industries as well as in the construction and education and
health services industries—which together accounted for 58% of employment—could
afford median gross rent. Two earner households earning average wages in every industry
except for leisure and hospitality could afford median gross rent and typical asking rent.
Single earners earning average wages in leisure and hospitality, which accounted for 17%
of employment in the county, could not afford even an average priced designated
affordable unit. They were likely to be cost burdened even if they lived in an income
restricted unit.
The figure also shows changes in rental affordability for New Hanover County Schools
teachers. Single earner public teachers could have afforded median gross rent and typical
asking rent in the county in 2018 but could not afford median gross rent or typical asking
rent in 2023.
Note that the above analysis focuses on wages so specifies affordability by industry and
number of earners. Elsewhere in this section, analyses that use “household income” or AMI
include households of all sizes: based on the federal definition of affordability, a unit is
affordable if it costs 30% or less of a household’s gross income regardless of household
size.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 13
Purchase Affordability
Typical home prices. Using the Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI)6, Figure III-10 shows
typical home prices alongside the maximum price that median income households in New
Hanover County could afford each year, 2003 to 2024.7
Figure III-10.
Typical Home Price
and Affordability at
Median Household
Income, New
Hanover County,
Wilmington, and
Balance of County,
2003–2024
Note:
Affordability calculations assume a
30-year mortgage with annual
average interest rates, a 10% down
payment, and 30% of housing
expenses to property taxes, HOA
fees, utilities, and other expenses.
Source:
Zillow Home Value Index, 2003 and
2004 Small Area Income and
Poverty Estimates, 2005-2019 and
2021-2023 1-year ACS, 2020 5-year
ACS, FRED from the Federal
Reserve of St. Louis, and Root
Policy Research.
Median income households could afford to purchase a typical priced home from 2012 to
2015. Typical priced homes were also relatively affordable to median income households in
2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021 when median income households could afford to
purchase a home within $25,000 of the county’s typical home price. Growth in home prices
accelerated in 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 with the pandemic, and rising interest rates in
2022 and 2023 caused purchasing power to fall.
As of 2024, the typical home price is approximately $424,000, $187,000 higher than the
price affordable to a median income household ($237,000 based on the most current
6 The Zillow Home Value Index (ZHVI) reflects the typical value for homes in the 35th to 65th percentile range. The ZHIVI
is presented here instead of ACS median home values because ACS median home values include only owner-occupied
homes and exclude homes being used seasonally or as short term rentals. Additional detail in Section II of this report.
7 Median home sales prices, evaluated for affordability later in this section, are only available for 2020-2023 and cannot
show 5-year change or broad historical change. This report uses the ZHVI here to show historical affordability trends.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 14
household income data available). In other words, a household would need an annual
income of $141,141 to afford a typical priced home in New Hanover County, $61,594
more than the 2023 median household income of $79,547.
Home sales prices. With historical context provided by Figure III-10 above, Figure III-
11 uses New Hanover County Assessor home sales data to provide a similar affordability
analysis of median home sales prices from 2020 to 2023.
Figure III-11 shows:
The median home sales price in New Hanover County was $287,000 in 2020. This rose
by 45% to $415,000 by 2023.
Due to higher interest rates in 2022 and 2023, the income required to afford a
median priced home increased by a much greater margin, more than doubling
(+121%) from $63,108 in 2020 to $139,282 in 2023.
By comparison, median household income increased by only 40% in the county
across this time.
Median income households in New Hanover County would have needed an additional
$2,932/year to afford a median priced home in 2021, but in 2023, median income
households needed an additional $59,735/year to afford the county’s median home
price.
Changes in purchase affordability were similar in Wilmington and in the balance of
county.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 15
Figure III-11.
Median Home Sales Price and Annual Household Income Needed to Afford
Median Priced Home, New Hanover County, Wilmington, and Balance of
County, 2020–2023
Note: Data are not provided for jurisdictions and years with fewer than 20 home sales. Includes all types of homes.
Median income households in the balance of county could afford a median priced home there in 2021.
Purchase affordability calculations assume a 30-year mortgage at average annual interest rates with a 10% down payment
and 30% of the monthly housing payment to other expenses including property taxes, HOA fees, and utilities.
Source: New Hanover County Assessor and Root Policy Research.
Median Home Sales Price
New Hanover County $287,000 $320,000 $370,000 $415,000 45%
Wilmington $269,000 $295,000 $355,000 $390,250 45%
Balance of County $300,000 $334,000 $382,250 $432,000 44%
Income Needed to Afford Median Priced Home
New Hanover County $63,108 $69,029 $106,140 $139,282 121%
Wilmington $59,150 $63,637 $101,837 $130,975 121%
Balance of County $65,966 $72,049 $109,654 $144,987 120%
Median Household Income
New Hanover County $56,689 $66,097 $70,485 $79,547 40%
Wilmington $51,137 $53,186 $63,835 $71,362 40%
Balance of County $63,141 $83,345 $78,102 $90,032 43%
Additional Annual Income Needed for Median Income HH to Afford Median Priced Home
New Hanover County $6,419 $2,932 $35,655 $59,735
Wilmington $8,013 $10,451 $38,002 $59,613
Balance of County $2,826 - $31,552 $54,955
2020 2021 2022 2023
2020-2023
Pct. Change
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 16
Figure III-12 shows another way of understanding these changes by comparing median
home sales prices to the maximum affordable home prices at median household income.
In 2023, median home sales prices were:
$177,984 greater than what median income households could afford in New Hanover
County;
$177,622 greater than what median income households could afford in Wilmington;
and
$163,743 greater than what median income households could afford in the balance of
county.
Figure III-12.
Median Home Sales Price and Maximum Affordable Home Price at Median
Household Income, New Hanover County, Wilmington, and Balance of
County, 2020–2023
Note: Data are not provided for jurisdictions and years with fewer than 20 home sales. Includes all types of homes.
Purchase affordability calculations assume a 30-year mortgage at average annual interest rates with a 10% down payment
and 30% of the monthly housing payment to other expenses including property taxes, HOA fees, and utilities.
Source: New Hanover County Assessor and Root Policy Research.
Median Home Sales Price
New Hanover County $287,000 $320,000 $370,000 $415,000 45%
Wilmington $269,000 $295,000 $355,000 $390,250 45%
Balance of County $300,000 $334,000 $382,250 $432,000 44%
Median Household Income
New Hanover County $56,689 $66,097 $70,485 $79,547 40%
Wilmington $51,137 $53,186 $63,835 $71,362 40%
Balance of County $63,141 $83,345 $78,102 $90,032 43%
Maximum Affordable Home Price at Median Household Income
New Hanover County $257,809 $306,406 $245,709 $237,016 -8%
Wilmington $232,559 $246,554 $222,527 $212,628 -9%
Balance of County $287,149 $386,360 $272,261 $268,257 -7%
Difference Between Median Home Sales Price and What Median Income Households Can Afford
New Hanover County $29,191 $13,594 $124,291 $177,984
Wilmington $36,441 $48,446 $132,473 $177,622
Balance of County $12,851 - $109,989 $163,743
2020 2021 2022 2023
2020-2023
Pct. Change
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 17
Figure III-13 replicates Figure III-10 to visualize recent losses in purchase affordability using
median home sales prices. Although median income households in the county could
roughly afford to purchase median priced homes in Wilmington in 2020 and 2021, higher
interest rates in 2022 and 2023 led to declining purchasing power for median income
households as home prices continued to rise.
Figure III-13.
Median Home Sales
Price and
Affordability at
Median Household
Income, New Hanover
County, Wilmington,
and Balance of
County, 2020–2024
Note:
Affordability calculations assume a 30-
year mortgage with annual average
interest rates, a 10% down payment,
and 30% of housing expenses to
property taxes, HOA fees, utilities, and
other expenses.
Source:
New Hanover County Assessor, 2021-
2023 1-year ACS, 2020 5-year ACS,
FRED from the Federal Reserve of St.
Louis, and Root Policy Research.
Based on median sales prices presented in Section II, the table in Figure III-14 shows the
household incomes required to afford median priced homes in all jurisdictions and Census
designated places in New Hanover County. As of 2023, households earning $110,000 or
less cannot afford to purchase a median priced home in any area of the county
without being cost burdened. Affording a median priced home requires a household
income of over $200,000 in Ogden, Porters Neck, and Kure Beach and over $430,000 in
Wrightsville Beach.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 18
Figure III-14.
Annual Household Income Needed to Afford Median Priced Home, New
Hanover County and by Jurisdiction and Census Designated Place, 2020–
2023
Note: Data are not provided for jurisdictions and years with fewer than 20 home sales. Includes all types of homes.
Purchase affordability calculations assume a 30-year mortgage at average annual interest rates with a 10% down payment
and 30% of the monthly housing payment to other expenses including property taxes, HOA fees, and utilities.
* “Unincorporated County” includes all areas of the county not included in Wilmington, a jurisdiction, or a Census designated
place (all listed separately in the table).
Source: New Hanover County Assessor and Root Policy Research.
Income Needed to Afford
Median Priced Home
Study Area
New Hanover County $63,108 $69,029 $106,140 $139,282 121%
Wilmington $59,150 $63,637 $101,837 $130,975 121%
Balance of County $65,966 $72,049 $109,654 $144,987 120%
Jurisdictions and Census Designated Places in Balance of County
Bayshore $80,259 $89,523 $130,523 $147,672 84%
Blue Clay Farms $66,846 - - - N/A
Carolina Beach $76,961 $88,444 $147,735 $184,422 140%
Castle Hayne - - $73,365 - N/A
Hightsville - - - - N/A
Kings Grant $49,035 $56,518 $88,641 $114,110 133%
Kure Beach $106,096 $133,043 $183,306 $212,446 100%
Murrayville $51,674 $57,165 $90,362 $112,097 117%
Myrtle Grove $75,092 $83,914 $125,646 $161,097 115%
Northchase $50,574 $54,522 $85,485 $115,117 128%
Ogden $80,809 $87,527 $143,360 $204,727 153%
Porters Neck $93,452 $101,926 $173,553 $208,083 123%
Sea Breeze $60,359 $72,697 $102,410 $144,652 140%
Silver Lake $49,915 $56,356 $91,510 $117,466 135%
Skippers Corner $59,645 $69,569 $100,116 $127,367 114%
Wrightsboro $54,532 $56,410 $94,665 $124,179 128%
Wrightsville Beach $200,648 $222,189 $344,237 $436,304 117%
Unincorporated County*$63,767 $66,225 $100,689 $127,032 99%
2020 2021 2022 2023
2020-2023
Pct. Change
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 19
Figure III-15 shows the annual household incomes needed to afford median priced homes
by unit type. The incomes needed to afford single family detached homes,
townhomes, units in du-/tri-/four-plexes, and condominiums in New Hanover County
have more than doubled since 2020. Households needed an income of $149,000 to
afford a median priced single family detached home, $120,000 to afford a median priced
townhome, $112,000 to afford a median priced condominium, and $69,000 to afford a
median priced manufactured home—though it should be noted that manufactured homes
often carry monthly lot rents, which can increase the annual income needed to afford
these homes. Units in du-/tri-/four-plexes had the highest median sales price in 2023—and
the highest income needed to afford a median priced unit at $267,000—largely because
84% of du-/tri-/four-plex sales were in Wrightsville Beach, Kure Beach, and Carolina Beach.
Figure III-15.
Income Needed to Afford Median Priced Home by Unit Type, New Hanover
County, Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2020–2023
Note: Data are not provided for jurisdictions and years with fewer than 20 home sales.
Source: New Hanover County Assessor and Root Policy Research.
New Hanover County
Single family detached $65,527 $73,128 $113,311 $148,847 127%
Townhome $58,270 $56,086 $91,797 $119,984 106%
Du-/tri-/four-plex $103,347 $140,486 $186,462 $266,817 158%
Condominium $43,978 $50,154 $86,346 $112,097 155%
Manufactured home $37,821 $36,672 $60,098 $69,221 83%
Wilmington
Single family detached $64,372 $75,501 $115,893 $151,700 136%
Townhome - $53,929 $90,362 $118,893 N/A
Du-/tri-/four-plex - - - - N/A
Condominium $32,214 $36,672 $62,823 $82,227 155%
Manufactured home - - - - N/A
Balance of County
Single family detached $65,966 $71,187 $110,873 $145,155 120%
Townhome - $60,293 $93,159 $120,151 N/A
Du-/tri-/four-plex $105,546 $148,413 $194,350 $268,495 154%
Condominium $61,569 $77,227 $119,049 $149,182 142%
Manufactured home - $36,672 $58,807 $67,124 N/A
2020 2021 2022 2023
% Change
2020-2023
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 20
Home sales affordable by AMI level. Based on the home sales price distribution
presented in Section II, Figure III-16 presents the shares of home sales affordable at various
Area Median Income (AMI) income levels. Broadly, and as suggested by the discussion
earlier in this report, home sales have shifted out of the affordability ranges of low to
moderate income households since 2020.
Figure III-16.
Shares of Home Sales Affordable by Area Median Income Level, New
Hanover County, Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2020 and 2023
Note: AMI levels are based on a 2-person household size, in line with New Hanover County’s average household size. Includes all
types of homes. Purchase affordability calculations assume a 30-year mortgage at average annual interest rates with a 10%
down payment and 30% of the monthly housing payment to other expenses including property taxes, HOA fees, and utilities.
Source: New Hanover County Assessor, FRED from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, HUD Income Limits, and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 21
Approximately 30% of homes sold in the county in 2020 were affordable to low income
households (0-80% AMI, equivalent to $63,520 or less in 2024), but only 2% of home sales
were affordable to low income households in 2023. Households earning the Area Median
Income (equivalent to $79,400 in 2024) could have afforded half (50%) of homes sold in
2020, but only 5% of homes sold in 2023. Households earning 150% AMI (equivalent to
$119,100 in 2024) could have afforded 77% of homes sold in 2020, but only 27% of homes
sold in 2023.
Purchase affordability by employment industry. As shown in Figure III-17,
losses in purchase affordability since 2020 have dramatic implications for the county’s
workforce.8
In 2020, single earner households earning average wages in the financial activities,
information, manufacturing, and professional and business services industries—industries
which accounted for 32% of employment in the county—could have afforded to purchase a
median priced home in the county. Households with two earners earning average wages in
all industries except for leisure and hospitality—industries which accounted for 84% of the
county’s employment—could afford a median priced home.
By 2023, median priced homes in New Hanover County were unaffordable to single earner
households earning average wages in all employment industries. The only industries in
which two earner households earning average wages could afford a median priced home
in the county 2023 were financial activities, information, manufacturing, and professional
and business services—the same industries in which a single earner could have afforded a
median priced home in 2020. Two earner households earning average wages in all other
industries—which accounted for 70% of total employment—could not afford a median
priced home.
The figure also shows purchase affordability for New Hanover County Schools teachers,
based on the annual salary of certified teachers with a bachelor’s degree and ten years of
experience or with a master’s degree and five years of experience. Households with two
public school teachers could have afforded a median priced home in 2020 but could not
have afforded a median priced home in 2023.
8 Note that the this portion of the analysis focuses on wages so specifies affordability by industry and number of
earners. Elsewhere in this section, analyses that use “household income” or AMI include households of all sizes: based
on the federal definition of affordability, a unit is affordable if it costs 30% or less of a household’s gross income
regardless of household size.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 22
Figure III-17.
Home Prices Affordable to Single Earner and Two Earner Households by
Employment Industry and Median Home Sales Price, New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2020 and 2023
Note: Purchase affordability calculations assume a 30-year mortgage at average annual interest rates with a 10% down payment
and 30% of the monthly housing payment to other expenses including property taxes, HOA fees, and utilities.
All employment industries are private employment only. Public school teacher salary, included to supplement the industries
provided in QCEW data, is the salary of a certified New Hanover County public school teacher with a bachelor’s degree and
ten years of experience or a master’s degree and five years of experience.
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), North Carolina Public School Teacher Salary Schedules for 2020/2021
and 2023/2024, New Hanover County Assessor, FRED from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 23
For additional context, Figure III-18 shows the share of home sales affordable to New
Hanover County Schools teachers with a bachelor’s degree and 10 years of experience or a
master’s degree and 5 years of experience. A single earner New Hanover County
Schools teacher could have afforded 21% of homes sold in the county in 2020 but
only 1% of homes sold in 2023. Households with two teachers could have afforded 74% of
homes sold in 2020, but only 18% in 2023.
Figure III-18.
Share of Home Sales Affordable to Public School Teachers, New Hanover
County Schools, 2020 and 2023
Note: Public school teacher salary is the salary of a certified New Hanover County public school teacher with a bachelor’s degree
and ten years of experience or a master’s degree and five years of experience.
Purchase affordability calculations assume a 30-year mortgage at average annual interest rates with a 10% down payment
and 30% of the monthly housing payment to other expenses including property taxes, HOA fees, and utilities.
Source: North Carolina Public School Teacher Salary Schedules for 2020/2021 and 2023/2024, New Hanover County Assessor, FRED
from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 24
Affordability Gaps Analysis for Current Residents
Root Policy Research conducted a modeling effort called a gaps analysis to examine how
the county’s housing market is meeting the affordability needs of current residents. The
gaps analysis compares the current supply of housing at various price points to the current
number of households who can afford such housing. If there are more housing units than
households, the market is “oversupplying” housing at that price point. Conversely, if there
are too few units, the market is “undersupplying” housing at that price point. The
affordability gaps analysis completed for New Hanover County addresses both rental
affordability and ownership opportunities for renters looking to buy.
This gaps analysis is intended to evaluate affordability needs among current
residents, not the need for additional housing to accommodate future or
potential residents. Future housing needs are projected later in Section III.
Rental affordability gaps. The rental gaps analysis compares the current number
of renter households by income level and the maximum monthly gross rent they can afford
with the current number of housing units in the market that are affordable to them,
including income restricted affordable units. The analysis also accounts for the use of
rental subsidies such as vouchers because the distribution of rental units reflects the
distribution of what renters pay in rent and utilities each month rather than the distribution
of rental units by rent charged.
The “Rental Affordability Gap” column in Figure III-19 shows the difference between the
number of renter households and the number of rental units affordable to them at that
price point. Negative numbers indicate a shortage of units at specific income levels;
positive units indicate an excess of housing at that price point. Affordability gaps are shown
by household AMI ranges published by HUD for a 2-person household (in line with the
average household size) in New Hanover County in 2023.9
Renters who cannot find affordably priced rentals must live in units that cost more than
30% (and often more than 50%) of their gross income. This puts pressure on the supply of
units at higher price points, so supply constraints affect the availability of affordable units
for households in all income ranges where cumulative affordability gaps exist. There are
cumulative shortages of units at every income level where the number of households with
incomes equal to or less than that income level is greater than the number of rental units
affordable at that income level. This is shown in the “Cumulative Affordability Gap” column
in Figure III-19.
9 The 2023 AMI is used to be consistent with the year for income and rent data.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 25
Figure III-19.
Current Rental Affordability Gaps, New Hanover County, Wilmington, and
Balance of County, 2023
Note: 2023 2-person AMI limits: 30% AMI = $21,650, 50% AMI = $36,100, 80% AMI = $57,750, 100% AMI = $72,200, 120% AMI =
$86,640
Source: 2023 1-year and 5-year ACS estimates, HUD Income Limits, and Root Policy Research.
New Hanover County
0-30% AMI $542 8,420 20% 2,857 6%-5,563 -5,563
31-50% AMI $903 5,941 14% 4,127 9%-1,814 -7,377
51-80% AMI $1,444 8,123 19% 14,435 33% 6,312 -1,065
81-100% AMI $1,805 4,861 12% 10,143 23% 5,282 4,218
101-120% AMI $2,166 3,465 8% 7,125 16% 3,660 7,878
121% AMI+ > $2,166 10,954 26% 5,594 13%-5,361 2,517
Wilmington
0-30% AMI $542 6,773 22% 2,070 7%-4,704 -4,704
31-50% AMI $903 4,667 15% 3,103 10%-1,564 -6,267
51-80% AMI $1,444 6,533 21% 11,291 37% 4,758 -1,510
81-100% AMI $1,805 2,942 9% 6,295 21% 3,353 1,844
101-120% AMI $2,166 2,519 8% 4,710 15% 2,191 4,034
121% AMI+ > $2,166 7,794 25% 3,009 10%-4,785 -751
Balance of County
0-30% AMI $542 1,647 16% 193 2%-1,453 -1,453
31-50% AMI $903 1,275 12% 933 8%-342 -1,795
51-60% AMI $1,083 290 3% 801 7% 510 -1,284
61-80% AMI $1,444 1,299 12% 3,648 30% 2,349 1,065
81-100% AMI $1,805 1,918 18% 2,982 24% 1,064 2,129
101-120% AMI $2,166 946 9% 1,953 16% 1,007 3,136
121% AMI+ > $2,166 3,160 30% 1,761 14%-1,399 1,737
Cummulative
Affordability
GapNum. Pct. Num. Pct.Income Range
Maximum
Affordable
Rent
Rental Demand:
Current Renters
Rental Supply:
Current Units Rental
Affordability
Gap
Cummulative
Affordability
GapNum. Pct. Num. Pct.Income Range
Maximum
Affordable
Rent
Rental Demand:
Current Renters
Rental Supply:
Current Units Rental
Affordability
Gap
Cummulative
Affordability
GapNum. Pct. Num. Pct.
Income Range
Maximum
Affordable
Rent
Rental Demand:
Current Renters
Rental Supply:
Current Units Rental
Affordability
Gap
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 26
The rental affordability gaps analysis in Figure III-19 shows that:
In New Hanover County as a whole, there is currently an affordability shortage
of 7,377 units for renters earning less than 50% AMI (even after accounting for
the county’s affordable, income restricted rental inventory). The mismatch in
supply and demand at this income level means that these households are paying
more than they can afford for housing.
The largest affordability gap is for households with extremely low incomes,
below 30% AMI ($21,650 in 2023). There are 8,420 renter households in this
income category, needing units priced at or below $542/month to avoid
being cost burdened. However, there are only 2,857 units priced in this
range, leaving a gap of 5,563 rental units affordable at 30% AMI.
Renters earning 31-50% AMI ($21,651 to $36,100 in 2023) need units priced
at $543-$903/month to avoid being cost burdened. Only 4,127 units are
priced within this range, resulting in a gap of 1,814 rental units affordable to
households earning 31-50% AMI.
These households are “renting up” into higher priced rental units. The rental
affordability needs can be addressed either through additional rental
subsidies on existing units or through the creation of new rental units priced
in their affordability range (less than 50% AMI). If the County seeks to
address this gap through the construction of new rental units, gaps could be
addressed through units built anywhere in the county.
In Wilmington, there is an affordability shortage of 6,267 units for current
renters earning less than 50% AMI. Similar to the county overall, the largest
affordability gap is for extremely low income (0-30% AMI) households.
6,773 renters in Wilmington earn 0-30% AMI and need units priced at or
below $542/month, but only 2,070 units in the city are affordable to them,
resulting in a shortage of 4,704 units for extremely low income households.
3,103 units in the city rent for $543-$903/month, but 4,667 renter
households earn 31-50% AMI and need units in this price range to avoid
being cost burdened, resulting in a gap of 1,564 units affordable to
households earning 31-50% AMI.
There is a shortage of 1,795 units for current renters earning less than 50% AMI
in the balance of county. As in Wilmington and in New Hanover County overall,
extremely low income (0-30% AMI) households face the largest affordability gap.
1,647 renters in the balance of county earn 0-30% AMI, but only 193 units in
the balance of county are affordable to them, resulting in a shortage of
1,453 units for extremely low income households.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 27
933 units rent for $543-$903/month, but 1,275 renter households need units
in this price range, resulting in a gap of 342 units affordable to 31-50% AMI.
Households that are unable to secure housing priced within their affordability ranges
often occupy housing at higher prices (becoming cost burdened). Supply constraints
thus affect the availability of affordable units for households in all income ranges for
which there exists a cumulative affordability gap. As of 2023, the cumulative gap in
affordable rental units in both New Hanover County as a whole and in
Wilmington constrains affordable rental supply for current renter households
earning up to 80% AMI ($57,750 in 2023). In the balance of county, the cumulative
gap in affordable rental units constrains affordable rental supply for households
earning up to 60% AMI ($43,300 in 2023).
The “shortages” shown for higher income renter households, those earning more than
120% AMI, suggests that high income renters are spending less than 30% of their
income on housing. This apparent gap is not a “housing need”—rather, it points to an
income mismatch in which higher income households are occupying homes affordable
to lower income households. Many households in this income range prefer to “rent
down” spending less than 30% of their income on housing—either to save money or
plan for a home purchase.
Purchase affordability gaps. To evaluate how well New Hanover County’s current
home sales market meets the affordability needs of its current residents, a home purchase
gaps analysis is performed. Here, the supply of housing units sold at various affordability
levels is compared to the income distribution of the area’s current renter households—
roughly, the income distribution of the area’s potential first-time home buyers. This
analysis assumes that housing is affordable to buyers at various income levels when
monthly housing costs are below 30% of buyers’ incomes.
If the share of homes sold at a given price point is greater than the share of current renter
households in that affordability range, the market is “oversupplying” homes at that price
range for first-time buyers. Conversely, if the share of homes sold at a given price point is
lower than the share of renter households in that affordability range, the market
“undersupplies” units. The current purchase affordability gaps analysis is shown in Figure
III-20.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 28
Figure III-20.
Current Affordability Gaps in For-Sale Market, New Hanover County,
Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2023/2024
Note: 2023 2-person AMI limits: 30% AMI = $21,650, 50% AMI = $36,100, 80% AMI = $57,750, 100% AMI = $72,200, 120% AMI =
$86,640, 150% AMI = $108,300. Affordability estimates assume a 30-year mortgage, 6.72% interest rate, 10% down payment,
and an additional 30% of monthly housing costs to other expenses including HOA fees, utilities, and taxes.
New Hanover County
Pct.
0-30% AMI $65,135 8,420 20% 0%-20%
31-50% AMI $108,558 5,941 14% 0%-14%
51-80% AMI $173,693 8,123 19% 2%-18% -18%
81-100% AMI $217,117 4,861 12% 3%-9% -26%
101-120% AMI $260,540 3,465 8% 7%-1% -28%
121-150% AMI $325,675 3,836 9% 15% 6%-22%
151% AMI+ $325,675 + 7,118 17% 73% 56% 28%
Wilmington
Pct.
0-30% AMI $65,135 6,773 22% 0%-22%
31-50% AMI $108,558 4,667 15% 1%-14%
51-80% AMI $173,693 6,533 21% 3%-18% -18%
81-100% AMI $217,117 2,942 9% 5%-4% -22%
101-120% AMI $260,540 2,519 8% 11%3% -19%
121-150% AMI $325,675 2,914 9% 15% 6%-13%
151% AMI+ $325,675 + 4,880 16% 64% 49% 30%
Balance of County
Pct.
0-30% AMI $65,135 1,647 16% 0%-16%
31-50% AMI $108,558 1,275 12% 0%-12%
51-80% AMI $173,693 1,590 15% 1%-14% -14%
81-100% AMI $217,117 1,918 18% 1%-17% -32%
101-120% AMI $260,540 946 9% 4%-5% -37%
121-150% AMI $325,675 922 9% 15% 6%-31%
151% AMI+ $325,675 + 2,238 21% 80% 59% 22%
excluded
excluded
Pct.
excluded
excluded
Cumulative
GapIncome Range
Maximum
Affordable Home
Price
1st Time Buyers
(Current Renters)
Homes Sales
Affordable Renter
Purchase
GapNum. Pct.
excluded
excluded
Income Range
Maximum
Affordable Home
Price
1st Time Buyers
(Current Renters)
Homes Sales
Affordable Renter
Purchase
Gap
Cumulative
GapNum.
Cumulative
GapNum. Pct.
Income Range
Maximum
Affordable Home
Price
1st Time Buyers
(Current Renters)
Homes Sales
Affordable Renter
Purchase
Gap
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 29
Source: 2023 1-year ACS estimates, New Hanover County Assessor, FRED from the Federal Reserve of St. Louis, HUD Income Limits,
and Root Policy Research.
The purchase gaps analysis in Figure III-20 shows that:
In New Hanover County, for-sale affordability gaps are concentrated among
current renter households with incomes below 120% AMI but cumulatively
affect households earning up to 150% AMI.
54% of potential first-time buyers had incomes below 80% AMI ($57,750 in
2023), but only 2% of homes sold in New Hanover County were priced at or
below $173,693, the maximum affordable home price for households
earning 80% AMI).
In each affordability range 0-30% AMI, 30-50% AMI, and 50-80% AMI,
demand outweighs supply by at least 14 percentage points. Demand
outweighs supply by 9 percentage points for households earning 80-100%
AMI ($57,751 to $72,200 in 2023).
Purchase gaps are present up to the 100-120% AMI income range ($72,201
to $86,640), wherein renter households require homes priced between
$217,118 and $260,540 to avoid being cost burdened by a home purchase.
8% of renter households fall within this income range while 7% of homes
sold in 2023 were in this price range, resulting in a gap of 1%.
Renters earning 31-50% AMI ($21,651 to $36,100 in 2023) need units priced
at $543-$903/month to avoid being cost burdened. Only 4,127 units are
priced within this range, resulting in a gap of 1,814 rental units affordable to
households earning 31-50% AMI.
The cumulative gap shows that the overall undersupply of affordable for-
sale homes would extend up to 150% AMI ($108,300 in 2023), even after
excluding households earning less than 50% AMI from potential demand:
49% of renters earn 50-150% AMI and may consider purchasing a home, but
only 27% of home sales were affordable at incomes of 150% AMI or below.
(The cumulative ownership gap excludes households earning less than 50%
of AMI because they are least likely to transition to homeownership).
Demand from current potential first-time buyers outweighs current supply up to
100% AMI in Wilmington—a lower income level than in the county overall—with
cumulative affordability gaps affecting households earning up to 150% AMI. The
cumulative purchase affordability gap at 150% AMI is smaller in Wilmington at 13
percentage points than in the county overall at 22 percentage points.
As in New Hanover County overall, purchase affordability gaps in the balance of
county currently exist for households earning 120% AMI and less and
cumulatively affect prospective homebuyers earning 150% AMI. The cumulative
purchase affordability gap at 150% AMI is larger in the balance of county at 31
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 30
percentage points than in the county overall at 22 percentage points and Wilmington
at 13 percentage points.
The affordability gap at these entry-level price-points indicates a strong need for
additional affordable ownership options for current residents either through
production of new affordable homes or subsidies on existing units (e.g., land trust or
deed restrictions, downpayment assistance, etc.). Renters who cannot afford to
purchase a home will either remain in rental units longer or look to move elsewhere to
purchase a home.
Home purchase gaps have grown substantially since 2019/2020 due to rapid price
growth and higher interest rates following the pandemic. In 2019/2020, purchase
affordability needs:
were concentrated below 60% AMI and affected households earning up to 80% AMI in
New Hanover County,
were concentrated below 50% AMI in Wilmington, and
were concentrated below 80% AMI and affected households earning up to 110% AMI
in the balance of county.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 31
Barriers to Homeownership
This section examines barriers to homeownership including saving for a downpayment and
access to mortgage financing.
Saving for a down payment. As home prices increase, saving for a down payment
of a given amount becomes increasingly challenging. Figure III-21 compares the required
down payment at the median home sales price in 2020 and 2023. Down payments are
shown for 3.5% of the property value (which is the minimum required for an FHA
mortgage), 10%, and 20%.
In order to avoid mortgage insurance on a median priced home in 2023, households
need to save an amount ranging from $78,050 in Wilmington to $86,400 in the
balance of county. By comparison, households could have afforded mortgage insurance
on a median priced home in 2020 with a $53,800 down payment in Wilmington and a
$60,000 down payment in the balance of county.
Figure III-21.
Median Home Sales Prices and Estimated Down Payment Requirements,
New Hanover County, Wilmington, and Balance of County, 2020 and 2023
Source: HMDA and Root Policy Research.
New Hanover County $287,000 $415,000 $10,045 $14,525 $28,700 $41,500 $57,400 $83,000
Wilmington $269,000 $390,250 $9,415 $13,659 $26,900 $39,025 $53,800 $78,050
Balance of County $300,000 $432,000 $10,500 $15,120 $30,000 $43,200 $60,000 $86,400
2023
3.5% Down
payment
2020 2023
Median Sales
Price
10% Down
payment
20% Down
payment
2020 2023 2020 2023 2020
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 32
Access to mortgage financing. In addition to down payment barriers, other
barriers in access to financing exist. Figures III-22 and III-23 show the volume of mortgage
applications and the distribution of application outcomes by income and race/ethnicity. As
expected, lower income households have the highest denial rates. Approximately 23%
of complete applications from low income applicants—applicants who had incomes below
80% AMI or $57,750 in 2023—were denied, compared to 9% of applications from moderate
income households and 5% of applications from high income households.
Figure III-22.
Mortgage Application Outcomes by Income, New Hanover County, 2023
Note: Includes only mortgage applications for first lien 30-year mortgages for principal residences, not for business or commercial
purposes. Denial rate is calculated as the number of mortgage applications that were denied divided by the number of
mortgage applications that were originated, approved but not accepted by the applicant, or denied. Total applications for
low, middle, and high income groups do not sum to “total” because “total” includes some applications with unknown income
level. Table uses 2023 2-person AMI limits: 80% AMI = $57,750, 100% AMI = $72,200, 120% AMI = $86,640.
Source: HMDA and Root Policy Research.
Income Level
Low (<80% AMI)256 23%61% 19% 2% 15% 2%
Middle (80-120% AMI)624 9%75% 8% 3% 13% 2%
High (>120% AMI)2,433 5%74% 4% 3% 17% 3%
Total 3,349 18%73% 6% 3% 16% 3%
Withdrawn
by Applicant
File Closed for
Incompleteness
Loan
Originated
Denial
Rate
Total
Apps.
% Distribution of Application Outcomes
Application
Denied
Approved,
Not
Accepted
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 33
Mortgage application outcomes also vary by race and ethnicity. As shown below, 75% of
applications from non-Hispanic White households were originated in 2023, compared to
71% of applications from Hispanic households, 64% from Black or African American
households, 56% of applications from Asian households, and 55% of applications from
households of other races. At least 30% of Asian applicants and applicants of other races
withdrew their mortgage applications, compared to less than 18% of applicants of all other
races and ethnicities studied.
Black or African American households have a disproportionately high denial rate
(19%) relative to the denial rates of non-Hispanic White households (6%) and
households overall (7%).10 Asian households and households of other races have the
second highest denial rates at 14%, followed by Hispanic households at 10%.
Figure III-23.
Mortgage Application Outcomes by Race and Ethnicity, New Hanover
County, 2023
Note: Includes only mortgage applications for first lien 30-year mortgages for principal residences, not for business or commercial
purposes. Denial rate is calculated as the number of mortgage applications that were denied divided by the number of
mortgage applications that were originated, approved but not accepted by the applicant, or denied. Total applications for
racial and ethnic groups do not sum to “total” because “total” includes some applications with unknown race/ethnicity. Table
uses 2023 2-person AMI limits: 80% AMI = $57,750, 100% AMI = $72,200, 120% AMI = $86,640.
Source: HMDA and Root Policy Research.
10 Denial rates are disproportionately high when they are at least 10 percentage points greater than the denial rate for
applicants overall.
Race/Ethnicity
Asian 91 14%56% 9% 0% 32% 3%
Black or African American 151 19%64% 15% 1% 17% 3%
Hispanic 174 10%71% 9% 4% 15% 1%
Non-Hispanic White 2,527 6%75% 5% 3% 15% 2%
Other 53 14%55% 9% 2% 30% 4%
Total 3,349 7%73% 6% 3% 16% 3%
Total
Apps.
Denial
Rate
% Distribution of Application Outcomes
Loan
Originated
Application
Denied
Approved,
Not
Accepted
Withdrawn
by Applicant
File Closed for
Incompleteness
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 34
As shown in Figure III-24, racial and ethnic disparities persist even for households with
incomes over 120% AMI, meaning that racial and ethnic disparities in mortgage
outcomes are not explained by racial and ethnic differences in household incomes.
Even among high income households, Black or African American applicants have a
disproportionately high mortgage denial rate (17%) relative to the denial rates of non-
Hispanic White applicants (4%) and applicants overall (5%). Among high income
households, denial rates for Asian applicants (14%) and applicants of other races and
ethnicities (9%) remain high.
Figure III-24.
Mortgage Application Outcomes by Race and Ethnicity for Applicants with
Incomes ≥ 120% AMI, New Hanover County, 2023
Note: Includes only mortgage applications for first lien 30-year mortgages for principal residences, not for business or commercial
purposes. Denial rate is calculated as the number of mortgage applications that were denied divided by the number of
mortgage applications that were originated, approved but not accepted by the applicant, or denied. Total applications for
racial and ethnic groups do not sum to “total” because “total” includes some applications with unknown race/ethnicity. Table
uses 2023 2-person AMI limits: 80% AMI = $57,750, 100% AMI = $72,200, 120% AMI = $86,640.
Source: HMDA and Root Policy Research.
Race/Ethnicity
(Income ≥ 120% AMI)
Asian 65 14%57% 9% 0% 29% 5%
Black or African American 94 17%63% 13% 0% 21% 3%
Hispanic 109 7%67% 6% 5% 21% 2%
Non-Hispanic White 1,875 4%76% 3% 3% 16% 3%
Other 36 9%53% 6% 3% 33% 6%
Total 2,433 5%74% 4% 3% 17% 3%2433
Total
Apps.
Denial
Rate
% Distribution of Application Outcomes
Loan
Originated
Application
Denied
Approved,
Not
Accepted
Withdrawn
by Applicant
File Closed for
Incompleteness
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 35
Figure III-25 shows mortgage application denial rates by Census tract. The tract with the
highest denial rate, near 20 denials per 100 applications, is located in Carolina Beach.
Other areas with relatively high denial rates—between 10 and 15 denials per 100
applications—are located around Sea Breeze, in several Wilmington tracts, and north of
Wilmington in areas including Wrightsboro, Castle Hayne, eastern Skippers Corner, and
Murrayville.
Figure III-25.
Denials per 100
Mortgage Loan
Applications by
Census Tract, New
Hanover County,
2023
Note:
Denial rate is calculated as the
number of mortgage applications that
were denied divided by the number
of mortgage applications that were
originated, approved but not
accepted by the applicant, or denied.
Includes only mortgage applications
for first lien 30-year mortgages for
principal residences, not for business
or commercial purposes.
“Missing” indicates that data are
unavailable due to insufficient
mortgage loan applications (n<20).
Source:
HMDA and Root Policy Research.
Figures III-26 and III-27 show the distribution of denial reasons by income and race and
ethnicity. Debt to income ratio is the biggest barrier for households of all income
levels and all races and ethnicities. By income, employment history is the second most
frequently given denial reason for low income households, credit history is the second
most frequently given denial reason for middle income households, and collateral is the
second most frequently given denial reason for high income households.
By race and ethnicity, credit history is the second most frequently given denial reason for
Black or African American and Hispanic applicants, collateral is the second greatest barrier
for non-Hispanic White and other households, and Asian households are more likely to be
denied for other reasons.
Given the higher share of applications denied due to credit history and incomplete
applications, households with middle and higher incomes, Black or African American
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 36
households, and Hispanic households can benefit from credit counseling and assistance
during the application process.
Figure III-26.
Mortgage Denial Reasons by Income, New Hanover County, 2023
Note: Includes only mortgage applications for first lien 30-year mortgages for principal residences, not for business or commercial
purposes. Figure uses 2023 2-person AMI limits: 80% AMI = $57,750, 100% AMI = $72,200, 120% AMI = $86,640.
Source: HMDA and Root Policy Research.
Figure III-27.
Mortgage Denial Reasons by Race and Ethnicity, New Hanover County,
2023
Note: Includes only mortgage applications for first lien 30-year mortgages for principal residences, not for business or commercial
purposes. Figure uses 2023 2-person AMI limits: 80% AMI = $57,750, 100% AMI = $72,200, 120% AMI = $86,640.
Source: HMDA and Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 37
Homelessness
This section discusses trends in homelessness in New Hanover County and in the Cape
Fear Homeless Continuum of Care’s service area. The Cape Fear Homeless Continuum of
Care (CFHCoC) covers New Hanover County (including Wilmington), Pender County, and
Brunswick County. The CFHCoC maintains two sources of data on homelessness in the
region and reports these to the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development
(HUD):
Data from Point-in-Time (PIT) Counts, a count of sheltered and unsheltered people
experiencing homelessness on a single night in January each year, and
Data from the Homeless Management Information System (HMIS), a system used to
collect client-level data and data on the provision of housing and services to
individuals and families at risk of and experiencing homelessness.
Data presented in this section are specific to the population experiencing homelessness in
New Hanover County where possible. Due to the nature of the CFHCoC’s work, some data
reflect the population experiencing homelessness in the CFHCoC’s service area (the
combined area of Pender, Brunswick, and New Hanover counties).
This section also presents data on homelessness among pre-K to 12th grade students in
New Hanover County Schools.
PIT Counts. The discussion of homelessness begins with an analysis of Point in Time
(PIT) Count data. Note that PIT Counts only include those individuals who meet the U.S.
Department of Housing and Urban Development’s definition of homelessness at the time
of the PIT Count. This definition includes individuals or families who lack a fixed, regular,
and adequate nighttime residence, meaning:
1. Has a primary nighttime residence that is a public or private place not meant for
human habitation; or
2. Is living in a publicly or privately operated shelter designated to provide temporary
living arrangements (including congregate shelters, transitional housing, and hotels
and motels paid for by charitable organizations or by federal, state and local
government programs); or
3. Is exiting an institution where (s)he has resided for 90 days or less and who resided
in an emergency shelter or place not meant for human habitation immediately
before entering that institution.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 38
As shown in Figure III-28, the January 2024 Point-in-Time (PIT) Count identified 497 people
experiencing homelessness in New Hanover County. For the first time in the years studied,
more than half (53%) of people experiencing homelessness in the county—264 people—
were unsheltered in the 2024 PIT Count. Homelessness decreased slightly since 2023,
when 523 people were identified as experiencing homelessness, but has increased
significantly overall since 2020–2022, when PIT Counts identified between 247 and 318
people experiencing homelessness. Rising homelessness since 2020–2022 is visible in both
sheltered and unsheltered homelessness, with the unsheltered population nearly doubling
from 135 in 2022 to 264 in 2024. This large increase in unsheltered homelessness is
partially explained by the closure of the Salvation Army’s downtown Wilmington shelter:
the 50-bed shelter closed in 2023 to allow the Salvation Army to construct a new 75-bed
shelter, expected to open in 2025.
Figure III-28.
Persons Experiencing
Sheltered and Unsheltered
Homelessness, New Hanover
County, 2020–2024
Source:
Cape Fear Homeless Continuum of Care PIT Counts,
2020–2024.
For added context, Figure III-29 (on the following page) presents PIT Count data for New
Hanover, Pender, and Brunswick counties overall. The 2024 PIT Count identified 593 people
experiencing homelessness in New Hanover, Pender, and Brunswick counties, and most
(79%-94% of) people experiencing homelessness in the region were in New Hanover
County each year, 2020–2024.
The additional years available for regional PIT Counts show that while homelessness is
rising in the CFHCoC’s service area and has nearly doubled since 2021, current levels of
homelessness remain below the previous peak of 678 individuals in 2010 following the
Great Recession.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 39
Figure III-29.
Persons Experiencing Sheltered and Unsheltered Homelessness, New
Hanover, Brunswick, and Pender Counties, 2009–2024
Source: Cape Fear Homeless Continuum of Care PIT Counts, 2009–2024.
Figure III-30 shows that chronic homelessness11 is also on the rise in the CFHCoC’s service
area: 165 people were counted as chronically homeless in 2024, up from fewer than 100
people each year, 2010-2023. The 2024 count of people experiencing chronic
homelessness is higher than the previous peak of 118 people in 2009.
Figure III-30.
Persons Experiencing Chronic Homelessness, New Hanover, Brunswick,
and Pender Counties, 2009–2024
Source: Cape Fear Homeless Continuum of Care PIT Counts, 2009–2024.
11 As defined by HUD, chronic homelessness includes homeless individuals with a disability who has been homeless for
at least 12 months or homeless on at least 4 separate occasions in the last 3 years as long as the combined occasions
equal at least 12 months.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 40
HMIS. A key limitation of the PIT Count data presented above is that it only reflects the
population experiencing homelessness on a single night. Homeless Management
Information System (HMIS) data provides data on individuals and families experiencing
homelessness who access housing, shelter, or services from the CFHCoC’s participating
agencies year-round. Some services may not be tracked in HMIS, so these data
approximate but cannot fully reflect the homeless population accessing services or shelter.
CFHCoC participating agencies served 2,059 unique clients in 1,892 households
experiencing homelessness with emergency shelter, transitional housing, safe haven,
street outreach, and day shelter programs in 2024, up slightly from 1,968 unique clients in
2023. An additional 1,488 unique clients in 921 households called the CFHCoC’s hotline or
access points, reported that they were experiencing homelessness, and requested
assistance, but were not ultimately entered into a CFHCoC program.
The figure below shows the age composition of CFHCoC’s 2024 clients experiencing
homelessness served by emergency shelter, transitional housing, safe haven, street
outreach, and day shelter programs.
Figure III-31.
Age of Clients Experiencing
Homelessness Served by CFHCoC in 2024
Note:
Includes Brunswick, Pender, and New Hanover County. New Hanover
County-specific data are unavailable.
Includes clients experiencing homelessness served with emergency
shelter, transitional housing, safe haven, street outreach, and day shelter
programs.
Source:
Cape Fear Homeless Continuum of Care HMIS 2024.
Most (65%) of clients experiencing homelessness were in adult only households aged 25 or
older, and another 8% were in adult only households aged 18 to 24 or “youth only
households.” Ten percent of clients were in households with adults and children, while two
percent were in child only households. These percentages are low level estimates as 16%
of clients had unknown household types.
Figure III-32.
Clients Experiencing Homelessness
Served by CFHCoC by Household Type,
2024
Note: Includes Brunswick, Pender, and New Hanover County. New
Hanover County-specific data are unavailable.
Source: Cape Fear Homeless Continuum of Care HMIS 2024.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 41
Figure III-33 shows the racial and ethnic composition of the population experiencing
homelessness served by CFHCoC participating agencies. Black, African American, or African
residents are severely overrepresented in the region’s homeless population: they make up
35% of the population experiencing homelessness, but only 10% of the overall population.
Non-Hispanic White residents, who make up 77% of the total population, are
underrepresented in the homeless population (55%). Hispanic residents and residents of
two or more races are slightly underrepresented in the homeless population relative to
their share of the total population. These data show that African American residents are
most vulnerable to homelessness in the CFHCoC’s service area.
Figure III-33.
CFHCoC Clients Experiencing
Homelessness and Total
Population by Race and
Ethnicity, 2023/24
Note:
Includes New Hanover, Pender, and Brunswick
counties. New Hanover County-specific data are
unavailable. “Hispanic” includes individuals who are
Hispanic of any race. All other groups are non-Hispanic
only. “Other” includes Middle Eastern or North African,
Asian or Asian American, American Indian and Alaska
Native, and others.
Source: Cape Fear Homeless Continuum of Care HMIS
2024, 2023 5-year ACS, and Root Policy Research.
Approximately 30% of people experiencing homelessness served by CFHCoC agencies in
2024 reported that they have at least one disability. Mental health disorders—reported by
19% of clients experiencing homelessness—and physical disabilities—reported by 12% of
clients experiencing homelessness—are the most common disabilities among clients
experiencing homelessness.
Figure III-34.
Disability Status of CFHCoC Clients Experiencing Homelessness, 2024
Note: Clients may have more than one disability type. Includes New Hanover, Pender, and Brunswick counties. New Hanover
County-specific data are unavailable.
Source: Cape Fear Homeless Continuum of Care HMIS 2024.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 42
Approximately 22% of clients experiencing homelessness (434 people) reported that they
are survivors of domestic violence. One in four (26%) of those reporting being domestic
violence survivors reported that the most recent occurrence of domestic violence occurred
in the past three months.
Homelessness in New Hanover County Schools. Homelessness among
families with children may be better captured by McKinney-Vento data, which use a more
expansive definition of homelessness to identify pre-K to 12th grade students in public
schools who are experiencing homelessness.12
According to McKinney-Vento data shown in Figure III-35, 910 pre-K to 12th grade children
were identified as experiencing homelessness in New Hanover County Schools in 2023-
2024, down from 1,264 students in 2022-2023 and 1,200 students in 2021-2022. Based on
this count, approximately 3.6% of all pre-K to 12th students in the district are experiencing
homelessness. By comparison, 1.9% of students enrolled in North Carolina public schools
are experiencing homelessness.13
It is estimated that 70.0% of homeless students in North Carolina public schools are
doubled up (e.g. living with another family). The next greatest share—19.6%—live in
hotels/motels, while 6.8% live in shelters or transitional housing. An estimated 3.6% of
homeless students live in unsheltered conditions.
Figure III-35.
Students
Experiencing
Homelessness, New
Hanover County
Schools, 2015-2024
Source:
New Hanover County Schools
McKinney-Vento data.
12 The McKinney-Vento definition of homelessness is available here: https://nche.ed.gov/mckinney-vento-definition/
13 Source: National Center for Homeless Education, https://profiles.nche.seiservices.com/StateProfile.aspx?StateID=33
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 43
Future Housing Demand & Needs
The North Carolina State Demographer estimates that New Hanover County had a
population of 239,514 in 2023 and projects that this population will grow to 262,570 by
2030, 295,596 by 2040, and 328,626 by 2050. Population growth is expected to continue at
a similar rate through 2050 (see Figure III-36).
Twenty-year household projections, also shown in Figure III-36 are based on the population
projections as well as trends in household size. Growth in households is expected to
continue at a similar rate through 2043: households are projected to reach 116,557 by
2028, 127,028 by 2033, 134,728 by 2038, and 142,427 by 2043.
Figure III-36.
Projected Population and Households, New Hanover County, 2000–2050
Note: Methodology assumes that household size continues to decrease from 2.20 in 2023 at a rate of 0.01 persons per year for the
next ten years in line with recent trends, stabilizes at 2.10 in 2033, and remains 2.10 after 2033. Methodology also assumes
that 97.9% of the total population lives in households in line with 2023 conditions.
Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget & Management, State Demographer, 1-year ACS estimates, 2020 Decennial Census, and
Root Policy Research.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 44
The analysis in Figure III-37 estimates the number of dwelling units by income level that are
needed to ensure housing availability, stability, and affordability for future resident and
employee households. The following figures show “keep up” needs, an estimate of
future growth by tenure and price point. Note that “catch up” needs, estimates of the
mismatch in current supply and demand by price point in the current housing
market, are not included in these figures but are rather presented in the current
gaps analysis (Figures III-19 and III-20). The approach used to project housing needs
assumes that the share of housing units that are vacant—including vacant for seasonal,
recreational, or occasional use—remains constant14 and that the county maintains its
current homeownership rate of 61%.
In order to accommodate growth, New Hanover County will need 9,279 new units in the
next five years, 21,187 new units in the next ten years, 29,943 new units in the next fifteen
years, and 38,697 new units in the next twenty years. Of those units, 61% (21,906 in the
next twenty years) would need to be for ownership to maintain current homeownership
levels.
Figure III-37.
Projected Housing Units Needed by Tenure, 2024–2043
Source: North Carolina Office of State Budget & Management, State Demographer, 2023 1-year ACS estimates, 2020 Decennial
Census, and Root Policy Research.
Figure III-38 shows how the new units needed in the next five, ten, fifteen, and twenty years
would need to be priced to ensure housing affordability and stability for future households.
The county’s existing income profile is used to ensure that living in the county remains
14 This is achieved by assuming that the county’s 2023 residential vacancy rate of 13.7% remains constant.
ROOT POLICY RESEARCH SECTION III, PAGE 45
affordable at a variety of income level to meet workforce needs. The market is most likely
to deliver rental units above 50% AMI and ownership units above 150% AMI; but public
assistance is likely needed to create rental below 50% AMI and ownership products below
150% AMI.
Figure III-38.
Five, Ten, Fifteen and
Twenty Year Projected
Needs by Income/
Affordability Level,
New Hanover County
Source:
North Carolina Office of State Budget &
Management, State Demographer, 2023
1-year ACS estimates, 2020 Decennial
Census, and Root Policy Research.
Total Units Needed 132,542 144,450 153,206 161,960
New Units Needed 9,279 21,187 29,943 38,697
0-30% AMI 1,194 2,727 3,854 4,981
31-50% AMI 865 1,975 2,792 3,608
51-80% AMI 1,433 3,273 4,625 5,978
81-100% AMI 795 1,814 2,564 3,314
101-120% AMI 803 1,833 2,591 3,348
121-150% AMI 1,006 2,297 3,247 4,196
151% AMI+3,182 7,267 10,270 13,272
20 Years:
2023-2043
5 Years:
2023-2028
10 Years:
2023-2033
15 Years:
2023-2038