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Home My WebLink AboutTIATRANSPORTATION IMPACT ANALYSIS October 8, 2024 Project # 242043 Castle Hayne, NC Prepared For: New Hanover County Holly Shelter Industrial Park 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park i EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Holly Shelter Industrial Park development is located between 5700 and 6208 Holly Shelter Road in Castle Hayne, NC. The proposed development will consist of approximately 2.4 million square feet of industrial space to be developed over four phases. Three full movement access points are proposed on Holly Shelter Road. The expected full build-out year for this development is 2041. Phases 1, 2, and 3 have expected build-out years of 2026, 2031, and 2036, respectively. Information regarding the property was provided by New Hanover County. DAVENPORT was retained to determine the potential traffic impact of this development and to identify transportation improvements that may be required to accommodate the new development traffic. The Transportation Impact Analysis (TIA) was performed based on the scope agreed upon with the Wilmington Metropolitan Planning Organization (WMPO) and North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT). This site has a full build-out trip generation potential of 9,341 daily trips, 1,293 trips in the AM peak hour, and 1,315 trips in the PM peak hour. This study has determined the potential traffic impact of this development and provides recommendations to mitigate the impact of future traffic. Improvements include new traffic signals to be installed by the approved background development at the ramps and turn lanes, as specified in the report. The analysis indicates that with the recommended improvements in place, the proposed site is not expected to have a detrimental effect on transportation capacity and mobility within the study area. The recommendations summarized in Figure A and in Table A should be constructed to comply with applicable NCDOT Policy on Street and Driveway Access to North Carolina Highways and local standards. Table A – Recommended Improvements INTERSECTION RECOMMENDATIONS Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and I-40 EB Ramps By Others • Install traffic control signal Recommended for others in conjunction with signal • Install northbound right-turn lane with overlap signal phasing Phase 1 • Extend northbound right-turn lane to at least 150 feet Phase 2 • Extend northbound right-turn lane to at least 275 feet Phase 3 • No additional improvements Full Build • Extend northbound right-turn lane to 350 feet 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park ii Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and I-40 WB Ramps By Others • Install traffic control signal Recommended for others in conjunction with signal • Install northbound right-turn lane with overlap signal phasing Phase 1 • Extend northbound right-turn lane to at least 300 feet Phase 2 • Extend northbound right-turn lane to at least 350 feet Phase 3 • No additional improvements Full Build • Extend northbound right-turn lane to 400 feet Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 1 Phase 1 • Construct an eastbound right-turn lane with at least 150 feet of storage and appropriate deceleration and taper • Construct two northbound (egress) lanes striped as an exclusive left-turn lane and an exclusive right-turn lane • Monitor for signalization Phase 2 • Install traffic control signal • Restripe the northbound approach (egress) as an exclusive left-turn lane and a shared left/right-turn lane • Construct a second receiving lane approximately 900 feet long on westbound Holly Shelter Road • Extend eastbound right-turn lane to 300 feet • Construct a westbound left-turn lane with at least 100 feet of storage and appropriate deceleration and taper Phase 3 & Full Build • No additional improvements Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 2 Phase 2 • Provide a single northbound egress lane • Install eastbound right-turn lane with 100 feet of storage and appropriate deceleration and taper Phase 3 & Full Build • No additional improvements Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 3 Phase 3 • Provide a northbound right-turn only egress lane with a channelizing island to prevent westbound left-turns • Construct an eastbound deceleration lane with 50 feet of full width and 200 feet of taper Full Build • No additional improvements *** NOT TO SCALE *** N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for the specificpurpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others withoutwritten authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability to DAVENPORT, and shall be aviolation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE A RECOMMENDED IMPROVEMENTS HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARK CASTLE HAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP Ph a s e 3 R o a d w a y Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 2 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y I- 4 0 W B 175'FULL 150' 15 0 ' / 27 5 ' /35 0 ' FULL FU L L 50' 100' 150'/300' FU L L FU L L 100' FU L L BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 ORANGE = PHASE 2 PINK = PHASE 3 RED = FULL BUILD 30 0 ' /35 0 ' /40 0 ' 900' 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park iv Table of Contents EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................. i Figure A: Recommended Improvements ......................................................................... iii 1.0 Introduction............................................................................................................. 1 Figure 2A – Site Location Map ............................................................................................3 Figure 2B – Vicinity Map ......................................................................................................4 2.0 Existing Conditions ................................................................................................ 5 2.1 Inventory..........................................................................................................................5 2.2 Existing Traffic Volumes ................................................................................................5 Figure 3 – Existing Lane Geometry ....................................................................................6 Figure 4 – Existing Traffic Volumes ....................................................................................7 3.0 Methodology ........................................................................................................... 8 3.1 Base Assumptions and Standards ...............................................................................8 3.2 Level of Service Evaluation Criteria..............................................................................8 3.3 Queueing Evaluation ......................................................................................................8 4.0 Existing Conditions Capacity Analysis ................................................................ 9 4.1 Level of Service and Queueing Results .......................................................................9 5.0 Approved Development and Committed Improvements ................................... 11 5.1 Approved Developments ............................................................................................. 11 5.2 Committed Improvements ........................................................................................... 11 6.0 Future Conditions ................................................................................................. 12 6.1 2026 Future No Build Volumes ................................................................................... 12 6.2 Phase 1 Trip Generation ............................................................................................. 12 6.3 Phase 1 Trip Distribution and Assignment ................................................................. 12 6.4 Phase 1 Future Build Volumes ................................................................................... 12 Figure 5 – 2026 Future No Build Volumes ....................................................................... 13 Figure 6A – Phase 1 Trip Distribution............................................................................... 14 Figure 6B – Phase 1 Site Trips ......................................................................................... 15 Figure 7 – 2026 Phase 1 Future Build Volumes .............................................................. 16 6.5 2031 Future No Build Volumes ................................................................................... 17 6.6 Phase 2 Trip Generation ............................................................................................. 17 6.7 Phase 2 Trip Distribution and Assignment ................................................................. 17 6.8 Phase 2 Future Build Volumes ................................................................................... 17 Figure 8 – 2031 Future No Build Volumes ....................................................................... 18 Figure 9A – Phase 2 Trip Distribution............................................................................... 19 Figure 9B – Phase 2 Site Trips ......................................................................................... 20 Figure 10 – 2031 Phase 2 Future Build Volumes............................................................ 21 6.9 2036 Future No Build Volumes ................................................................................... 22 6.10 Phase 3 Trip Generation ........................................................................................ 22 6.11 Phase 3 Trip Distribution and Assignment ........................................................... 23 6.12 Phase 3 Future Build Volumes .............................................................................. 23 Figure 11 – 2036 Future No Build Volumes ..................................................................... 24 Figure 12A – Phase 3 Trip Distribution ............................................................................ 25 Figure 12B – Phase 3 Site Trips ....................................................................................... 26 Figure 13 – 2036 Phase 3 Future Build Volumes............................................................ 27 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park v 6.13 2041 Future No Build Volumes .............................................................................. 28 6.14 Full Build Trip Generation ...................................................................................... 28 6.15 Full Build Trip Distribution and Assignment .......................................................... 29 6.16 Full Build Future Build Volumes ............................................................................ 29 Figure 14 – 2041 Future No Build Volumes ..................................................................... 30 Figure 15A – Full Build Trip Distribution ........................................................................... 31 Figure 15B – Full Build Site Trips ..................................................................................... 32 Figure 16 – 2041 Full Build Future Build Volumes .......................................................... 33 7.0 Future Capacity Analysis ..................................................................................... 34 7.1 Level of Service and Queueing Results ..................................................................... 34 8.0 Signal Warrant Analysis....................................................................................... 49 9.0 Summary and Conclusion ................................................................................... 51 Figure 17 – Recommended Improvements ...................................................................... 53 Appendix ...................................................................................................................... 54 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 1 1.0 Introduction The Holly Shelter Industrial Park development is located between 5700 and 6208 Holly Shelter Road in Castle Hayne, NC. The proposed development will consist of approximately 2.4 million square feet of industrial space to be developed over four phases. Three full movement access points are proposed on Holly Shelter Road. The expected full build-out year for this development is 2041. Phases 1, 2, and 3 have expected build-out years of 2026, 2031, and 2036, respectively. Information regarding the property was provided by New Hanover County. A conceptual site plan is shown in Figure 1, and a site location map and a vicinity map are provided in Figures 2A and 2B, respectively. DAVENPORT was retained to determine the potential traffic impact of this development and to identify transportation improvements that may be required to accommodate the new development traffic. The following intersections are included in the study: 1. Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and EB I-40 (Southbound) Ramps (future signal) 2. Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and WB I-40 (Northbound) Ramps (future signal) 3. Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 1 4. Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 2 5. Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 3 These intersections were analyzed during the AM and PM peaks for the following conditions: • 2024 Existing Conditions • 2026 Future No Build Conditions • 2026 Phase 1 Future Build Conditions • 2026 Phase 1 Future Build Conditions + Improvements • 2031 Future No Build Conditions • 2031 Phase 2 Future Build Conditions • 2031 Phase 2 Future Build Conditions + Improvements • 2036 Future No Build Conditions • 2036 Phase 3 Future Build Conditions • 2036 Phase 3 Future Build Conditions + Improvements • 2041 Future No Build Conditions • 2041 Full Build Future Build Conditions • 2041 Full Build Future Build Conditions + Improvements The Transportation Impact Analysis (TIA) was performed based on the scope agreed upon with the Wilmington Metropolitan Planning Organization (WMPO) and North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT). It was conducted according to the standards and recommended practices of the transportation engineering profession. FIGURE 1 CONCEPTUAL SITE PLAN Holly Shelter Industrial Park Project Number 232043 Phase 1 2026 Phase 2 2031 Phase 3 2036 Phase 4 2041 Site Access 3 Site Access 1 Site Access 2 FIGURE 2A SITE LOCATION MAP SITE INDICATOR N FIGURE 2B VICINITY MAP N SITE INDICATOR EXISTING STUDY INTERSECTION PROPOSED STUDY INTERSECTIONS 1 2 3 4 5 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 5 2.0 Existing Conditions 2.1 Inventory Table 2.1 presents a summary of the study area roadway conditions. Figure 3 shows the existing lane geometry. Table 2.1 - Street Inventory Facility Name Route # 2021 AADT (vpd) Typical Cross Section Pavement Width Speed Limit (MPH) Maintained By Holly Shelter Road SR 1002 6,800 Two Lane Undivided 24’ 45/55 NCDOT I-40 EB Entry Ramp I-40 4,700 One Lane Ramp 20’ 45 NCDOT I-40 EB Exit Ramp I-40 1,000 One Lane Loop 20’ 25 NCDOT I-40 WB Entry Ramp I-40 950 One Lane Loop 20’ 25 NCDOT I-40 WB Exit Ramp I-40 4,600 One Lane Ramp 20’ 45 NCDOT 2.2 Existing Traffic Volumes Turning movement counts for this project were collected by True Direction Traffic Services Inc when local public schools were in session. Table 2.2 contains the location, dates, and times these counts were conducted. The traffic volumes were balanced between the study intersections by using the greater of the two adjacent through volumes to provide a more conservative analysis. Holly Shelter Road at the I-40 Eastbound Ramps was used as the controlling peak hour, as it had the highest total intersection volume. The peak hours used for analysis were 8:00-9:00 AM and 4:00-5:00 PM. Additionally, a minimum of four vehicles per hour were assigned to all movements, per NCDOT Congestion Management guidance. The existing AM and PM peak hour volumes are shown in Figure 4. Traffic count data are provided in the Appendix. Table 2.2 - Traffic Volume Data Count Location Date Taken Hours Holly Shelter Road at I-40 EB Ramps (unsignalized) Tuesday, March 19, 2024 6 AM – 7 PM Holly Shelter Road at I-40 WB Ramps (unsignalized) Tuesday, March 19, 2024 6 AM – 7 PM *** NOT TO SCALE *** I- 4 0 E B I- 4 0 W B N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for the specific purposeand client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability to DAVENPORT, and shall be a violationof the agreement between DAVENPORTand the client. FIGURE 3 EXISTING LANE GEOMETRY HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 2021 AADT VOLUMESXXXX BLACK = EXISTING GRAY = UNANALYZED TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND STOP TWO-WAY LEFT-TURN LANE Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) 175'FULL 150'FULL SPEEDLIMIT55 SPEEDLIMIT 55 SPEEDLIMIT 55 SPEED LIMIT 45 6,800 50 ' 50 ' *** NOT TO SCALE *** BLACK = EXISTING GRAY = UNANALYZED TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARK CASTLE HAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this documentby others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 4 2024 EXISTING TRAFFIC VOLUMES AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road 139 / 273 55 / 210 3 / 6 16 / 5 1 52 / 111 85 / 460 19 / 76 39 / 140 17 / 1 9 1 48 / 3 3 8 89 / 233 5 / 29 I- 4 0 W B 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 8 3.0 Methodology 3.1 Baseline Assumptions and Standards In general, the analysis for this project was conducted utilizing commonly accepted NCDOT standards. Table 3.1 contains a summary of the baseline assumptions. Table 3.1 - Assumptions Annual Growth Rate 1% Analysis Software Synchro/SimTraffic Lane Widths 12 feet Peak Hour Factor 0.90 Truck Percentage 2% Peak Hour peak hour of adjacent road with primarily employee trips (passenger vehicles) Driveway Speed Limit 30 mph 3.2 Level of Service Evaluation Criteria The Transportation Research Board’s Highway Capacity Manual (HCM) utilizes the term “level of service” (LOS) to measure how traffic operates in intersections and on roadway segments. There are six levels of service ranging from A thru F as shown in Table 3.2. Level of service “A” represents low-volume traffic operations and level of service “F” represents high-volume, oversaturated traffic operations. Synchro traffic modeling software is used to determine the LOS and delay for study intersections. Synchro analysis worksheet reports are provided in the Appendix. 3.3 Queueing Evaluation A queueing analysis was performed using Synchro and SimTraffic simulation software, based on a minimum 10-minute seeding, a 60-minute recording period, and 10 simulation runs. The Table 3.2 – Highway Capacity Manual Levels of Service and Control Delay Criteria Signalized Intersection Unsignalized Intersection Level of Service Control Delay Per vehicle (seconds) Level of Service Delay Range (seconds) A ≤ 10 A ≤ 10 B > 10 and ≤ 20 B > 10 and ≤ 15 C > 20 and ≤ 35 C > 15 and ≤ 25 D > 35 and ≤ 55 D > 25 and ≤ 35 E > 55 and ≤ 80 E > 35 and ≤ 50 F > 80 F > 50 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 9 maximum SimTraffic queues and 95th-percentile Synchro queues are provided, along with the turn lane lengths. Synchro and SimTraffic queue reports are provided in the Appendix. 4.0 Existing Conditions Capacity Analysis 4.1 Level of Service and Queueing Results The results of the capacity and queue analyses are discussed by intersection in the following paragraphs. The LOS, delay, and queue results are summarized in Tables 4.1 and 4.2. Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and I-40 EB Ramps (unsignalized) The worst (northbound) approach of the intersection operates at LOS B in the AM peak hour and LOS C in the PM peak hour. Expected queues are contained within the available storage. Table 4.1 - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at I-40 EB Ramps Scenario Worst Approach Level of Service per Movement & by Approach (delay in seconds/vehicle) Eastbound Westbound Northbound AM Peak Hour 2024 Existing B (10.0) NB Approach T R L T L R A (0.0) A (0.0) A (7.4) A (0.0) B (10.3) A (8.6) A (0.0) A (2.8) B (10.0) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 5 0 5 0 Max Queue (ft) 0 0 28 0 26 0 PM Peak Hour 2024 Existing C (22.3) NB Approach T R L T L R A (0.0) A (0.0) A (8.0) A (0.0) C (23.8) A (9.5) A (0.0) A (1.5) C (22.3) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 10 0 25 0 Max Queue (ft) 0 114 47 0 75 0 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 10 Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and I-40 WB Ramps (unsignalized) The worst (northbound) approach of the intersection operates at LOS A in the AM peak hour and LOS C in the PM peak hour. The expected queue for the northbound right turn exceeds the available storage. Table 4.2 - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at I-40 WB Ramps Scenario *Overall or Worst Approach Level of Service per Movement & by Approach (delay in seconds/vehicle) Eastbound Westbound Northbound AM Peak Hour 2024 Existing A (9.3) NB Approach T R L T L R A (0.0) A (0.0) A (7.3) A (0.0) A (9.6) A (8.6) A (0.0) A (0.4) A (9.3) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100 FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 0 0 5 5 Max Queue (ft) 0 0 5 0 47 0 PM Peak Hour 2024 Existing C (20.5) NB Approach T R L T L R A (0.0) A (0.0) A (7.6) A (0.0) D (26.3) B (10.3) A (0.0) A (0.8) C (20.5) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100 FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 5 0 140 25 Max Queue (ft) 0 5 30 0 234 100 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 11 5.0 Approved Development and Committed Improvements 5.1 Approved Developments Approved developments are projects that have been authorized in the area but are not yet constructed. Per the approved scoping document, there is one approved development to consider for this study site. • Castle Hayne Residential – a proposed residential development located in the southwest corner of Holly Shelter Road and Blue Clay Road. A TIA, dated February 16, 2023, was prepared by Kimley-Horn, and approved by the WMPO/NCDOT on April 12, 2023. Additional relevant information is provided in the Appendix. 5.2 Committed Improvements Committed improvements are improvements that are planned by NCDOT, the County, or that are associated with a prior approved development in the area but are not yet constructed. Per the approved scoping document, there are two committed improvements to be included in this study. • Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and I-40 Eastbound Ramps o Per the Castle Hayne Residential TIA approval letter, the intersection shall be signalized. • Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and I-40 Westbound Ramps o Per the Castle Hayne Residential TIA approval letter, the intersection shall be either be signalized and put in coordination with the I-40 Eastbound Ramp signal, or a northbound right-turn lane with 400 feet of storage shall be installed. This report has assumed that the coordinated signal will be installed. 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 12 6.0 Future Conditions 6.1 2026 Future No Build Volumes The 2026 Future No Build traffic volumes were computed by applying a one percent (1%) compounded annual growth rate to the 2024 Existing traffic volumes and adding approved development trips. Figure 5 shows 2026 Future No Build traffic volumes for AM and PM peaks. 6.2 Phase 1 Trip Generation Phase 1 of the proposed development will contain approximately 562,500 square feet of industrial space; half of the proposed square footage is considered as an industrial park and half as manufacturing space. The trip generation potential of this site was projected based on the 11th Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual and guidance from NCDOT Congestion Management on the selection of appropriate variables. Table 6.1 presents the results. Table 6.1 - ITE 11th Edition Trip Generation Average Weekday Driveway Volumes Daily Volume AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour ITE Land Use and Code Size Data Source Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total PHASE 1 (NHC 2 Tract, Phase 1) – 2026 130, Industrial Park 281,250 SF Adjacent-Rate 948 77 19 96 21 75 96 140, Manufacturing 281,250 SF Generator-Equation 1262 153 57 210 90 125 215 Phase 1 Subtotal - - - 2210 230 76 306 111 200 311 6.3 Phase 1 Trip Distribution and Assignment Phase 1 site trips for this proposed development were distributed as agreed upon with NCDOT/WMPO. The trip distribution model is shown in Figure 6A. The directional distribution for site trips is: • 40% to/from north via I-40 • 40% to/from south via I-40 • 15% to/from west via Holly Shelter Road • 5% to/from east via Holly Shelter Road 6.4 Phase 1 Future Build Volumes Phase 1 site trip volumes were added to the 2026 Future No Build volumes to compute the Phase 1 Future Build volumes. Phase 1 site trips are shown in Figure 6B. 2026 Phase 1 Future Build volumes are shown in Figure 7. *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 5 2026 FUTURE NO BUILD VOLUMES AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road I- 4 0 W B 142 / 278 70 / 248 6 / 1 5 16 / 5 2 108 / 148 125 / 492 19 / 78 57 / 186 38 / 2 4 6 49 / 3 4 5 184 / 296 14 / 36 *** NOT TO SCALE *** N 0 / 0 This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for the specific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization andadaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability to DAVENPORT, andshall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARK CASTLE HAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 ORIGIN/DESTINATION NODE% IN = ENTERING OUT = EXITING I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road 40% 40% Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d 5%15% FIGURE 6A PHASE 1 TRIP DISTRIBUTION 5% IN 40 % I N 40% OUT 5% OUT 45% IN 40 % O U T 45% OUT 40% OUT 85% IN 15 % O U T 85 % O U T 15% IN I- 4 0 W B *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 6B PHASE 1 SITE TRIPS AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y I- 4 0 W B 0 / 0 12 / 6 92 / 4 4 0 / 0 30 / 80 4 / 10 0 / 0 104 / 50 30 / 8 0 0 / 0 34 / 90 30 / 80 196 / 94 0 / 0 11 / 3 0 65 / 1 7 0 0 / 035 / 17 *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 7 2026 PHASE 1 BUILD VOLUMES AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y I- 4 0 W B 142 / 278 82 / 254 98 / 5 9 16 / 5 2 138 / 228 129 / 502 19 / 78 161 / 236 68 / 3 2 6 49 / 3 4 5 218 / 386 44 / 116 196 / 94 61 / 264 11 / 3 0 65 / 1 7 0 79 / 21735 / 17 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 17 6.5 2031 Future No Build Volumes The 2031 Future No Build traffic volumes were computed by applying a one percent (1%) compounded annual growth rate to the 2024 Existing traffic volumes and adding approved development trips. Figure 8 shows 2031 Future No Build traffic volumes for AM and PM peaks. 6.6 Phase 2 Trip Generation Phase 2 of the proposed development will add approximately 1,023,000 additional square feet of industrial space; half of the proposed square footage is considered as an industrial park and half as manufacturing space. The trip generation potential of this site was projected based on the 11th Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual and guidance from NCDOT Congestion Management on the selection of appropriate variables. Table 6.2 presents the results. Table 6.2 - ITE 11th Edition Trip Generation Average Weekday Driveway Volumes Daily Volume AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour ITE Land Use and Code Size Data Source Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total PHASE 1 (NHC 2 Tract, Phase 1) – 2026 130, Industrial Park 281,250 SF Adjacent-Rate 948 77 19 96 21 75 96 140, Manufacturing 281,250 SF Generator-Equation 1262 153 57 210 90 125 215 Phase 1 Subtotal - - - 2210 230 76 306 111 200 311 PHASE 2 (NHC 4 Tract, Phase 2a) – 2031 130, Industrial Park 511,500 SF Adjacent-Rate 1724 141 33 174 38 136 174 140, Manufacturing 511,500 SF Generator-Equation 2130 263 97 360 157 217 374 Phases 1+2 Subtotal - - - 6064 634 206 840 306 553 859 6.7 Phase 2 Trip Distribution and Assignment Phase 2 site trips for this proposed development were distributed as agreed upon with NCDOT/WMPO. The trip distribution model is shown in Figure 9A. The directional distribution for site trips is: • 40% to/from north via I-40 • 40% to/from south via I-40 • 15% to/from west via Holly Shelter Road • 5% to/from east via Holly Shelter Road 6.8 Phase 2 Future Build Volumes Phase 2 site trip volumes were added to the 2031 Future No Build volumes to compute the Phase 2 Future Build volumes. Phase 2 site trips are shown in Figure 9B and 2031 Phase 2 Future Build volumes are shown in Figure 10. *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 8 2031 FUTURE NO BUILD VOLUMES AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road I- 4 0 W B 149 / 293 73 / 259 6 / 1 5 17 / 5 5 111 / 154 129 / 516 20 / 81 59 / 193 39 / 2 5 6 51 / 3 6 2 188 / 308 14 / 37 *** NOT TO SCALE *** N 0 This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for the specific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization andadaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability to DAVENPORT, andshall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 ORANGE = PHASE 2 TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARK CASTLE HAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 ORIGIN/DESTINATION NODE% IN = ENTERING OUT = EXITING I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 2 R o a d w a y 40% 40% Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d 5%15% FIGURE 9A PHASE 2 TRIP DISTRIBUTION 5% IN 40 % I N 40% OUT 5% OUT 45% IN 40 % O U T 45% OUT 40% OUT 70% IN 15% IN 10 % O U T 70 % O U T 15% OUT 10% IN 15% IN 10% OUT 5% O U T 15 % O U T 10% IN 5% IN I- 4 0 W B *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 9B PHASE 2 SITE TRIPS AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 ORANGE = PHASE 2 Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 2 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y I- 4 0 W B 0 / 0 32 / 15 25 4 / 1 2 2 0 / 0 82 / 221 10 / 28 0 / 0 285 / 138 82 / 2 2 1 0 / 0 93 / 249 82 / 221 444 / 214 95 / 46 21 / 5 5 14 4 / 3 8 7 31 / 83 63 / 31 95 / 46 21 / 55 10 / 2 8 31 / 8 3 63 / 31 32 / 15 *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 10 2031 PHASE 2 BUILD VOLUMES AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 ORANGE = PHASE 2 Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 2 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y I- 4 0 W B 149 / 293 105 / 274 26 0 / 1 3 7 17 / 5 5 193 / 375 139 / 544 20 / 81 344 / 331 12 1 / 4 7 7 51 / 3 6 2 281 / 557 96 / 258 444 / 214 158 / 323 21 / 5 5 14 4 / 3 8 7 114 / 311 63 / 31 95 / 46 84 / 332 10 / 2 8 31 / 8 3 146 / 259 32 / 15 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 22 6.9 2036 Future No Build Volumes The 2036 Future No Build traffic volumes were computed by applying a one percent (1%) compounded annual growth rate to the 2024 Existing traffic volumes and adding approved development trips. Figure 11 shows 2036 Future No Build traffic volumes for AM and PM peaks. 6.10 Phase 3 Trip Generation Phase 3 of the proposed development will add approximately 205,000 additional square feet of industrial space; half of the proposed square footage is considered as an industrial park and half as manufacturing space. The trip generation potential of this site was projected based on the 11th Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual and guidance from NCDOT Congestion Management on the selection of appropriate variables. Table 6.3 presents the results. Table 6.3 - ITE 11th Edition Trip Generation Average Weekday Driveway Volumes Daily Volume AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour ITE Land Use and Code Size Data Source Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total PHASE 1 (NHC 2 Tract, Phase 1) – 2026 130, Industrial Park 281,250 SF Adjacent-Rate 948 77 19 96 21 75 96 140, Manufacturing 281,250 SF Generator-Equation 1262 153 57 210 90 125 215 Phase 1 Subtotal - - - 2210 230 76 306 111 200 311 PHASE 2 (NHC 4 Tract, Phase 2a) – 2031 130, Industrial Park 511,500 SF Adjacent-Rate 1724 141 33 174 38 136 174 140, Manufacturing 511,500 SF Generator-Equation 2130 263 97 360 157 217 374 Phases 1+2 Subtotal - - - 6064 634 206 840 306 553 859 PHASE 3 (NHC 3 Tract, Phase 2b) – 2036 130, Industrial Park 102,500 SF Adjacent-Rate 345 28 7 35 8 27 35 140, Manufacturing 102,500 SF Generator-Equation 588 69 25 94 38 53 91 Phases 1+2+3 Subtotal - - - 6997 731 238 969 352 633 985 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 23 6.11 Phase 3 Trip Distribution and Assignment Phase 3 site trips for this proposed development were distributed as agreed upon with NCDOT/WMPO. The trip distribution model is shown in Figure 12A. The directional distribution for site trips is: • 40% to/from north via I-40 • 40% to/from south via I-40 • 15% to/from west via Holly Shelter Road • 5% to/from east via Holly Shelter Road 6.12 Phase 3 Future Build Volumes Phase 3 site trip volumes were added to the 2036 Future No Build volumes to compute the Phase 3 Future Build volumes. Phase 3 site trips are shown in Figure 12B. 2036 Phase 3 Future Build volumes are shown in Figure 13. *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 11 2036 FUTURE NO BUILD VOLUMES AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road I- 4 0 W B 157 / 308 76 / 271 6 / 1 6 18 / 5 7 114 / 160 134 / 541 21 / 86 61 / 201 40 / 2 6 6 54 / 3 8 1 193 / 321 15 / 39 *** NOT TO SCALE *** N 0 This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for the specific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization andadaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability to DAVENPORT, andshall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 ORANGE = PHASE 2 PINK = PHASE 3 TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARK CASTLE HAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 ORIGIN/DESTINATION NODE% IN = ENTERING OUT = EXITING I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 3 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 2 R o a d w a y 40% 40% Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d 5%15% FIGURE 12A PHASE 3 TRIP DISTRIBUTION 5% IN 40 % I N 40% OUT 5% OUT 45% IN 40 % O U T 45% OUT 40% OUT 35% IN 15% IN + 5% OUT 5% O U T 70 % O U T 15% OUT 10% IN 35% IN 50% IN 5% O U T 85% OUT 15% IN 10% OUT 5% O U T 15 % O U T 10% IN 5% IN I- 4 0 W B *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 12B PHASE 3 SITE TRIPS AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 ORANGE = PHASE 2 PINK = PHASE 3 Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 3 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 2 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y I- 4 0 W B 0 / 0 37 / 18 29 2 / 1 4 1 0 / 0 95 / 253 12 / 32 0 / 0 329 / 158 95 / 2 5 3 0 / 0 107 / 285 95 / 253 256 / 123 122 / 84 12 / 3 2 16 7 / 4 4 3 36 / 9573 / 35 256 / 123 366 / 176 12 / 3 2 202 / 538 110 / 53 24 / 63 12 / 3 2 36 / 9 5 73 / 35 37 / 18 *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 13 2036 PHASE 3 BUILD VOLUMES AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 ORANGE = PHASE 2 PINK = PHASE 3 Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 3 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 2 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y I- 4 0 W B 157 / 308 113 / 289 29 8 / 1 5 7 18 / 5 7 209 / 413 146 / 573 21 / 86 390 / 359 13 5 / 5 1 9 54 / 3 8 1 300 / 606 110 / 292 256 / 123 187 / 375 12 / 3 2 16 7 / 4 4 3 122 / 33373 / 35 256 / 123 431 / 467 12 / 3 2 288 / 776 110 / 53 89 / 354 12 / 3 2 36 / 9 5 159 / 273 37 / 18 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 28 6.13 2041 Future No Build Volumes The 2041 Future No Build traffic volumes were computed by applying a one percent (1%) compounded annual growth rate to the 2024 Existing traffic volumes and adding approved development trips. Figure 14 shows 2041 Future No Build traffic volumes for AM and PM peaks. 6.14 Full Build Trip Generation Full Build of the proposed development will add approximately 600,000 additional square feet of industrial space to the project; half of the proposed square footage is considered as an industrial park and half as manufacturing space. The trip generation potential of this site was projected based on the 11th Edition of the Institute of Transportation Engineers (ITE) Trip Generation Manual and guidance from NCDOT Congestion Management on the selection of appropriate variables. Table 6.4 presents the results. Table 6.4 - ITE 11th Edition Trip Generation Average Weekday Driveway Volumes Daily Volume AM Peak Hour PM Peak Hour ITE Land Use and Code Size Data Source Enter Exit Total Enter Exit Total PHASE 1 (NHC 2 Tract, Phase 1) – 2026 130, Industrial Park 281,250 SF Adjacent-Rate 948 77 19 96 21 75 96 140, Manufacturing 281,250 SF Generator-Equation 1262 153 57 210 90 125 215 Phase 1 Subtotal - - - 2210 230 76 306 111 200 311 PHASE 2 (NHC 4 Tract, Phase 2a) – 2031 130, Industrial Park 511,500 SF Adjacent-Rate 1724 141 33 174 38 136 174 140, Manufacturing 511,500 SF Generator-Equation 2130 263 97 360 157 217 374 Phases 1+2 Subtotal - - - 6064 634 206 840 306 553 859 PHASE 3 (NHC 3 Tract, Phase 2b) – 2036 130, Industrial Park 102,500 SF Adjacent-Rate 345 28 7 35 8 27 35 140, Manufacturing 102,500 SF Generator-Equation 588 69 25 94 38 53 91 Phases 1+2+3 Subtotal - - - 6997 731 238 969 352 633 985 PHASE 4 (NHC 1 Tract, Phase 3) – 2041 130, Industrial Park 300,000 SF Adjacent-Rate 1011 83 19 102 22 80 102 140, Manufacturing 300,000 SF Generator-Equation 1333 162 60 222 96 132 228 Full Build Total - - - 9341 976 317 1293 470 845 1315 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 29 6.15 Full Build Trip Distribution and Assignment Full Build site trips for this proposed development were distributed as agreed upon with the WMPO. The trip distribution model is shown in Figure 15A. The directional distribution for site trips is: • 40% to/from north via I-40 • 40% to/from south via I-40 • 15% to/from west via Holly Shelter Road • 5% to/from east via Holly Shelter Road 6.16 Full Build Future Build Volumes Full Build site trip volumes were added to the 2041 Future No Build volumes to compute the Full Build Future Build volumes. Full Build site trips are shown in Figure 15B. 2041 Full Build Future Build volumes are shown in Figure 16. *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 14 2041 FUTURE NO BUILD VOLUMES AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road I- 4 0 W B 165 / 323 79 / 283 7 / 1 6 19 / 6 0 117 / 166 139 / 568 23 / 90 63 / 209 41 / 2 7 7 57 / 4 0 0 198 / 334 15 / 40 *** NOT TO SCALE *** N 0 This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for the specific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization andadaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability to DAVENPORT, andshall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 ORANGE = PHASE 2 PINK = PHASE 3 TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARK CASTLE HAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 ORIGIN/DESTINATION NODE% IN = ENTERING OUT = EXITING I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 3 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 2 R o a d w a y 40% 40% Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d 5%15% FIGURE 15A FULL BUILD TRIP DISTRIBUTION 5% IN 40 % I N 40% OUT 5% OUT 45% IN 40 % O U T 45% OUT 40% OUT 35% IN 15% IN + 5% OUT 5% O U T 70 % O U T 15% OUT 10% IN 35% IN 50% IN 5% O U T 85% OUT 15% IN 10% OUT 5% O U T 15 % O U T 10% IN 5% IN I- 4 0 W B *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 15B FULL BUILD SITE TRIPS AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 ORANGE = PHASE 2 PINK = PHASE 3 Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 3 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 2 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y I- 4 0 W B 0 / 0 49 / 24 39 0 / 1 8 8 0 / 0 127 / 338 16 / 42 0 / 0 439 / 212 12 7 / 3 3 8 0 / 0 143 / 380 127 / 338 342 / 165 162 / 113 16 / 4 2 22 2 / 5 9 2 48 / 12798 / 47 342 / 165 488 / 235 16 / 4 2 269 / 718 146 / 71 32 / 85 16 / 4 2 48 / 1 2 7 98 / 47 49 / 24 *** NOT TO SCALE *** TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARKCASTLEHAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for thespecific purpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others without written authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability toDAVENPORT, and shall be a violation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 16 2041 FULL BUILD VOLUMES AM / PM PEAKS ** A minimum of 4 vehicles per hour is analyzed for each movement per NCDOTCongestion Management Guidelines. BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 ORANGE = PHASE 2 PINK = PHASE 3 Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 3 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 2 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y I- 4 0 W B 165 / 323 128 / 307 39 7 / 2 0 4 19 / 6 0 244 / 504 155 / 610 23 / 90 502 / 421 16 8 / 6 1 5 57 / 4 0 0 341 / 714 142 / 378 342 / 165 230 / 418 16 / 4 2 22 2 / 5 9 2 138 / 37798 / 47 342 / 165 556 / 540 16 / 4 2 359 / 968 146 / 71 100 / 390 16 / 4 2 48 / 1 2 7 188 / 297 49 / 24 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 34 7.0 Future Capacity Analysis 7.1 Level of Service and Queueing Results The results of the capacity and queue analyses are discussed by intersection and by project phase in the following sections. The LOS, delay, and queue results are summarized in Tables 7.1 to 7.5. Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and I-40 EB Ramps The intersection will be signalized as a committed improvement of the Castle Hayne Residential development. Under Future No Build and Build conditions, the intersection operates at an overall LOS C or better for each scenario. Since the required storage lengths from the approved development were not provided, required turn lane lengths are assumed based on background traffic growth, approved development site traffic, and this site’s traffic. The existing eastbound right turn lane is 150 feet, which is sufficient for Phase 1 (2026); by Full Build (2041), the storage is exceeded by the expected queues. No site trips are assigned to the eastbound right-turn movement. The existing northbound right-turn movement has about 50 feet of channelized storage; this length would be exceeded with Phase 1 traffic. If a northbound right-turn lane is installed with the new traffic signal, overlap phasing can be provided, which reduces the needed storage to approximately 350 feet by Full Build (2041). Without the exclusive right-turn lane, an additional 100 feet of storage could be necessary. “Future Build” analyses include the improvements from prior phases’ “Future Build + Improvements” analyses. The Phase 1 Future Build analysis does not include a northbound right-turn overlap; the Phase 1 Future Build + Improvements analysis includes the overlap for comparison purposes, though it should be included with the installation of the traffic signal and northbound right-turn lane as part of the committed improvement. This report recommends that a northbound right-turn lane with 150 feet, 275 feet, and 350 feet of storage is in place by 2026 (Phase 1), 2031 (Phase 2), and 2041 (Full Build), respectively Table 7.1 - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at I-40 EB Ramps Scenario Overall Level of Service per Movement & by Approach (delay in seconds/vehicle) Eastbound Westbound Northbound AM Peak Hour 2026 Future No Build B (14.5) T R L T L R A (9.5) A (4.2) D (38.5) A (4.2) D (37.9) D (37.0) A (5.9) C (20.1) D (37.6) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 43 47 115 51 30 17 Max Queue (ft) 72 11 135 75 53 43 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 35 Table 7.1 (cont.) - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at I-40 EB Ramps 2026 Phase 1 Future Build C (20.8) T R L T L R B (13.9) A (4.8) D (39.1) A (7.3) C (31.1) D (40.0) A (8.1) C (23.7) D (38.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 62 52 138 68 26 102 Max Queue (ft) 86 0 191 93 139 131 2026 Phase 1 Future Build + Imp. B (16.8) T R L T L R B (10.4) A (4.8) D (38.5) A (4.4) D (37.9) C (22.0) A (6.9) C (22.0) C (24.3) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 150 95th% Queue (ft) 51 52 138 54 30 76 Max Queue (ft) 72 0 175 61 58 136 2031 Future No Build B (14.5) T R L T L R A (9.6) A (4.3) D (38.5) A (4.3) D (37.9) D (36.8) A (6.0) C (20.1) D (37.6) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 45 50 117 52 31 17 Max Queue (ft) 63 0 138 81 49 35 2031 Phase 2 Future Build B (20.0) T R L T L R B (12.6) A (6.3) D (37.5) A (4.8) D (37.9) C (24.9) A (8.9) C (23.8) C (25.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 150 95th% Queue (ft) 71 65 174 61 31 176 Max Queue (ft) 84 0 193 65 222 226 2031 Phase 2 Future Build + Imp. B (20.0) T R L T L R B (12.6) A (6.3) D (37.5) A (4.8) D (37.9) C (24.9) A (8.9) C (23.8) C (25.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 275 95th% Queue (ft) 71 65 174 61 31 176 Max Queue (ft) 87 0 204 61 77 270 2036 Future No Build B (14.5) T R L T L R A (9.7) A (4.4) D (38.5) A (4.4) D (37.9) D (36.8) A (6.1) C (20.1) D (37.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 46 53 122 54 32 17 Max Queue (ft) 62 0 151 74 49 39 2036 Phase 3 Future Build C (20.5) T R L T L R B (13.4) A (6.8) D (37.0) A (4.9) D (37.9) C (25.4) A (9.6) C (23.8) C (26.2) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 275 95th% Queue (ft) 78 72 184 64 32 196 Max Queue (ft) 107 0 210 75 52 272 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 36 Table 7.1 (cont.) - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at I-40 EB Ramps 2041 Future No Build B (14.5) T R L T L R A (9.9) A (4.5) D (38.5) A (4.5) D (38.0) D (36.9) A (6.2) C (20.1) D (37.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 48 56 123 56 33 17 Max Queue (ft) 68 0 153 76 55 38 2041 Full Build Future Build C (20.6) T R L T L R B (17.0) A (9.4) C (31.7) A (5.1) D (38.0) C (34.8) B (12.7) C (21.4) C (25.4) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 275 95th% Queue (ft) 99 92 195 68 33 236 Max Queue (ft) 147 11 215 81 205 330 2041 Full Build Future Build + Imp. C (20.6) T R L T L R B (17.0) A (9.4) C (31.7) A (5.1) D (38.0) C (34.8) B (12.7) C (21.4) C (25.4) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 350 95th% Queue (ft) 99 92 195 68 33 236 Max Queue (ft) 145 0 221 74 52 352 PM Peak Hour 2026 Future No Build B (12.6) T R L T L R B (13.6) A (5.9) D (47.4) A (2.1) D (38.6) C (35.0) A (9.5) B (12.5) D (37.8) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 159 107 m113 51 64 27 Max Queue (ft) 149 52 194 96 98 47 2026 Phase 1 Future Build B (15.6) T R L T L R B (17.6) A (8.1) D (40.1) A (2.4) D (37.2) D (39.1) B (12.7) B (14.2) D (38.2) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 189 132 m150 66 63 71 Max Queue (ft) 180 104 238 122 119 106 2026 Phase 1 Future Build + Imp. B (14.5) T R L T L R B (16.7) A (8.1) D (41.2) A (2.3) D (39.0) B (15.1) B (12.2) B (14.4) C (26.3) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 150 95th% Queue (ft) 181 132 m156 58 65 40 Max Queue (ft) 180 98 250 99 86 105 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 37 Table 7.1 (cont.) - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at I-40 EB Ramps 2031 Future No Build B (12.7) T R L T L R B (14.1) A (6.2) D (46.7) A (2.1) D (38.6) C (34.8) A (9.9) B (12.4) D (37.8) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 170 116 m113 54 67 27 Max Queue (ft) 165 36 196 98 104 46 2031 Phase 2 Future Build B (16.7) T R L T L R C (24.3) B (13.4) C (32.0) A (2.9) D (39.1) B (11.9) B (18.7) B (14.8) B (19.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 150 95th% Queue (ft) 236 186 247 100 67 59 Max Queue (ft) 236 178 343 135 131 147 2031 Phase 2 Future Build + Imp. B (16.7) T R L T L R C (24.3) B (13.4) C (32.0) A (2.9) D (39.1) B (11.9) B (18.7) B (14.8) B (19.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 275 95th% Queue (ft) 236 186 247 100 67 59 Max Queue (ft) 220 179 339 133 87 142 2036 Future No Build B (12.8) T R L T L R B (14.5) A (6.5) D (46.3) A (2.2) D (38.6) C (34.8) B (10.2) B (12.3) D (37.8) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 179 125 m112 56 68 28 Max Queue (ft) 177 11 205 112 105 41 2036 Phase 3 Future Build B (17.4) T R L T L R C (26.6) B (14.7) C (31.8) A (3.3) D (38.6) B (11.1) C (20.5) B (15.2) B (18.5) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 275 95th% Queue (ft) 256 199 m293 123 68 64 Max Queue (ft) 246 208 365 142 108 176 2041 Future No Build B (12.8) T R L T L R B (15.1) A (6.8) D (45.6) A (2.3) D (38.7) C (34.6) B (10.6) B (12.0) D (37.8) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 190 134 m110 m59 71 28 Max Queue (ft) 175 112 192 93 111 49 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 38 Table 7.1 (cont.) - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at I-40 EB Ramps 2041 Full Build Future Build B (19.4) T R L T L R C (31.7) B (17.6) C (32.8) A (4.4) D (38.7) A (9.8) C (24.5) B (17.3) B (16.4) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 275 95th% Queue (ft) #277 209 m405 m167 71 83 Max Queue (ft) 271 235 412 135 98 187 2041 Full Build Future Build + Imp. B (19.4) T R L T L R C (31.7) B (17.6) C (32.8) A (4.4) D (38.7) A (9.8) C (24.5) B (17.3) B (16.4) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 350 95th% Queue (ft) #277 209 m405 m167 71 83 Max Queue (ft) 283 241 392 156 114 172 # 95th percentile volume exceeds capacity; queue may be longer. m Volume for 95th percentile queue is metered by upstream signal. 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 39 Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and I-40 WB Ramps The intersection is assumed to be signalized as a committed improvement of the Castle Hayne Residential development. Under Future No Build and Build conditions in the AM peak hour, the intersection operates at an overall LOS B for each scenario. In the PM peak hour, the intersection operates at an overall LOS C under No Build conditions. In the PM peak hour, it operates at LOS C for Phase 1, LOS D for Phases 2 and 3, and Phase E under Full Build conditions. Since the required storage lengths from the approved development were not provided, required turn lane lengths are assumed based on background traffic growth, approved development site traffic, and this site’s traffic. The existing northbound right-turn movement has about 50 feet of channelized storage; this length would be exceeded with 2026 background traffic. If a northbound right-turn lane is installed with the new traffic signal, overlap phasing can be provided, which reduces the needed storage to approximately 400 feet. Without the exclusive right-turn lane, an additional 350 feet of storage could be necessary. “Future Build” analyses include the improvements from prior phases’ “Future Build + Improvements” analyses. The Phase 1 Future Build analysis does not include a northbound right-turn overlap; the Phase 1 Future Build + Improvements analysis includes the overlap for comparison purposes, though it should be included with the installation of the traffic signal and northbound right-turn lane as part of the committed improvement. This report recommends that a northbound right-turn lane with 300 feet, 350 feet, and 400 feet of storage is in place by 2026 (Phase 1), 2031 (Phase 2), and 2041 (Full Build), respectively. Table 7.2 - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at I-40 WB Ramps Scenario Overall Level of Service per Movement & by Approach (delay in seconds/vehicle) Eastbound Westbound Northbound AM Peak Hour 2026 Future No Build B (14.1) T R L T L R B (11.2) A (1.0) D (37.8) A (2.9) D (38.9) D (38.5) A (8.6) A (5.4) D (38.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 66 6 28 46 62 51 Max Queue (ft) 64 0 53 79 93 82 2026 Phase 1 Future Build B (15.1) T R L T L R A (9.2) A (1.2) D (38.8) A (3.5) D (36.3) D (39.8) A (8.4) A (9.4) D (38.4) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 77 3 58 62 60 79 Max Queue (ft) 99 0 83 104 125 113 2026 Phase 1 Future Build + Imp. B (12.9) T R L T L R A (7.9) A (1.3) D (38.8) A (2.9) D (38.9) C (24.4) A (7.2) A (9.0) C (30.4) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 300 95th% Queue (ft) 75 3 58 54 62 61 Max Queue (ft) 79 0 79 89 86 106 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 40 Table 7.2 (cont.) - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at I-40 WB Ramps 2031 Future No Build B (14.2) T R L T L R B (11.4) A (1.1) D (37.8) A (2.9) D (39.0) D (38.4) A (8.8) A (5.4) D (38.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 69 6 28 47 64 52 Max Queue (ft) 68 0 51 77 91 76 2031 Phase 2 Future Build B (13.4) T R L T L R A (7.5) A (1.1) D (39.6) A (3.2) D (39.0) C (24.3) A (7.1) B (12.5) C (28.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 300 95th% Queue (ft) 101 m2 102 70 64 91 Max Queue (ft) 160 0 138 170 92 141 2031 Phase 2 Future Build + Imp. B (13.4) T R L T L R A (7.5) A (1.1) D (39.6) A (3.2) D (39.0) C (24.3) A (7.1) B (12.5) C (28.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 350 95th% Queue (ft) 101 m2 102 70 64 91 Max Queue (ft) 159 0 136 142 96 136 2036 Future No Build B (14.7) T R L T L R B (13.4) A (1.6) D (37.8) A (3.0) D (39.1) D (38.3) B (10.4) A (5.5) D (38.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 71 6 29 49 67 53 Max Queue (ft) 55 0 56 89 109 82 2036 Phase 3 Future Build B (13.7) T R L T L R A (8.1) A (1.1) D (39.6) A (3.3) D (39.1) C (24.2) A (7.7) B (13.0) C (28.4) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 350 95th% Queue (ft) 115 m2 111 77 67 98 Max Queue (ft) 165 0 146 160 103 165 2041 Future No Build B (14.8) T R L T L R B (13.9) A (1.6) D (37.8) A (3.0) D (39.1) D (38.3) B (10.6) A (5.5) D (38.8) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 72 7 29 51 69 55 Max Queue (ft) 61 0 53 84 103 76 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 41 Table 7.2 (cont.) - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at I-40 WB Ramps 2041 Full Build Future Build B (14.8) T R L T L R B (10.4) A (2.6) D (39.5) A (3.5) D (39.1) C (23.8) B (10.1) B (14.1) C (27.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 350 95th% Queue (ft) 220 m6 135 90 69 114 Max Queue (ft) 257 0 150 189 90 172 2041 Full Build Future Build + Imp. B (14.8) T R L T L R B (10.4) A (2.6) D (39.5) A (3.5) D (39.1) C (23.8) B (10.1) B (14.1) C (27.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 400 95th% Queue (ft) 220 m6 135 90 69 114 Max Queue (ft) 247 0 155 195 92 175 PM Peak Hour 2026 Future No Build C (23.9) T R L T L R A (6.2) A (2.2) D (38.5) A (9.7) D (41.4) C (34.5) A (5.0) B (12.9) D (38.5) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 13 0 50 138 293 209 Max Queue (ft) 106 5 70 162 484 150 2026 Phase 1 Future Build C (27.4) T R L T L R B (15.1) A (2.1) D (39.9) B (10.9) D (39.9) D (44.4) B (11.9) B (17.6) D (42.1) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 101 0 116 187 293 #298 Max Queue (ft) 159 16 174 296 648 150 2026 Phase 1 Future Build + Imp. C (21.6) T R L T L R B (14.5) A (3.2) D (39.4) B (10.6) D (41.8) B (16.5) B (11.7) B (17.3) C (29.5) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 300 95th% Queue (ft) 203 12 114 187 293 163 Max Queue (ft) 198 29 169 246 322 252 2031 Future No Build C (24.3) T R L T L R A (5.9) A (2.0) D (38.5) B (10.1) D (42.5) C (34.6) A (4.8) B (13.1) D (39.2) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 12 0 51 144 310 217 Max Queue (ft) 108 0 84 176 542 150 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 42 Table 7.2 (cont.) - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at I-40 WB Ramps 2031 Phase 2 Future Build C (24.4) T R L T L R C (25.6) A (3.1) D (43.7) B (13.4) D (42.9) B (15.6) C (21.2) C (23.0) C (27.3) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 300 95th% Queue (ft) 178 11 235 305 310 249 Max Queue (ft) 266 59 174 489 359 302 2031 Phase 2 Future Build + Imp. C (24.4) T R L T L R C (25.6) A (3.1) D (43.7) B (13.4) D (42.9) B (15.6) C (21.2) C (23.0) C (27.3) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 350 95th% Queue (ft) 178 11 235 305 310 249 Max Queue (ft) 261 38 174 459 393 324 2036 Future No Build C (25.0) T R L T L R A (5.9) A (1.9) D (38.6) B (10.4) D (44.3) C (34.8) A (4.7) B (13.4) D (40.4) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 13 0 53 152 #356 228 Max Queue (ft) 106 6 103 193 558 150 2036 Phase 3 Future Build C (26.1) T R L T L R C (29.0) A (3.0) D (47.3) B (14.7) D (44.3) B (15.8) C (24.0) C (25.3) C (27.9) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 350 95th% Queue (ft) #325 12 #291 247 #356 283 Max Queue (ft) 282 35 174 540 360 330 2041 Future No Build C (25.6) T R L T L R A (5.5) A (1.6) D (38.6) B (10.7) D (46.0) C (34.9) A (4.3) B (13.7) D (41.5) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 50 95th% Queue (ft) 12 0 54 158 #384 239 Max Queue (ft) 125 10 124 192 775 150 2041 Full Build Future Build C (32.4) T R L T L R D (45.4) A (2.9) E (61.7) B (18.0) D (46.6) B (17.3) D (38.0) C (33.1) C (28.8) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 350 95th% Queue (ft) #417 m14 #423 458 #384 380 Max Queue (ft) 486 32 175 1036 403 344 2041 Full Build Future Build + Imp. C (32.4) T R L T L R D (45.4) A (2.9) E (61.7) B (18.0) D (46.6) B (17.3) D (38.0) C (33.1) C (28.8) Available Storage (ft) FULL FULL 100* FULL FULL 400 95th% Queue (ft) #417 m14 #423 458 #384 380 Max Queue (ft) 440 38 175 1062 433 381 Notes: *dedicated striped storage reported. Existing TWLTL provides additional ~750 feet of storage m – Volume for 95th percentile queue is metered by upstream signal. # – 95th percentile volume exceeds capacity, queue may be longer. 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 43 Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 1 Site Access 1 will serve as the main access point for the development and will be constructed for Phase 1 (2026). In 2026, the unsignalized northbound approach would operate at LOS B during the AM peak hour and LOS C during the PM peak hour. A right-turn lane with 150 feet of storage is shown by the NCDOT Policy on Street and Driveway Access to North Carolina Highways turn lane nomograph to be required; no left-turn lane is warranted. The capacity analysis shows that the queues are contained within the available storage. Based on the signal warrant analysis presented in Section 8.0, two MUTCD warrants are met for Site Access 1 in Phase 1. However, the satisfaction of a warrant or warrants does not necessitate the installation of a signal. The capacity analyses show that the intersection will operate at LOS C or better during the peak hours, with less than 17 seconds of delay, with the northbound approach operating under a stop-controlled condition. In Phase 1, it is recommended that: • An eastbound right-turn lane with 150 feet of storage and appropriate deceleration and taper be constructed, • Two northbound egress lanes – an exclusive left-turn lane and an exclusive right-turn lane – be constructed, and • The intersection be monitored for signalization after Phase 1 is occupied. Beginning in Phase 2, three MUTCD warrants are met for Site Access 1. The northbound approach operates at LOS F with over two minutes of delay in the Phase 2 PM peak hour. While this amount of delay can be typical for a driveway entering a busy roadway such as Holly Shelter Road, it would be beneficial to install the traffic signal. Heavier truck traffic during the off-peak of the adjacent street may benefit from gaps the signal will provide. Nearby schools may have peak times that coincide with shift changes, increasing the possibility that delays might be greater outside of the typical PM peak hour. Additionally, northbound left-turn volumes are sufficient that a second left-turn lane is recommended, which would require an additional receiving lane on Holly Shelter Road. Iterative simulations were performed until the receiving lane was sufficiently long to allow traffic to merge without stopping on either Site Access 1 or Holly Shelter Road; this allowed left-turning traffic to properly utilize both the dedicated left-turn lane and the shared left/right-turn lane. In Phase 2, this report recommends: • A traffic signal be installed, • The eastbound right-turn lane be extended to provide 300 feet of storage and appropriate deceleration and taper, • A westbound left-turn lane with 100 feet of storage and appropriate deceleration and taper be constructed, • The northbound egress lanes be restriped to provide one exclusive left-turn lane and one shared left/right-turn lane, and • A second receiving lane of at least 900 feet plus appropriate taper be constructed on westbound Holly Shelter Road. No additional improvements are recommended in Phase 3. The analysis shows the queues exceed the 100-foot full width storage by only five feet in Full Build, so no additional improvements are recommended. 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 44 Table 7.3 - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at Site Access 1 Scenario *Overall or Worst Approach Level of Service per Movement & by Approach (delay in seconds/vehicle) Eastbound Westbound Northbound AM Peak Hour 2026 Phase 1 Future Build B (10.2) NB Approach T R LT L R A (0.0) A (0.0) A (2.4) B (10.5) A (8.7) A (0.0) B (10.2) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 5 10 0 Max Queue (ft) 0 11 43 57 23 2031 Phase 2 Future Build B (14.1) NB Approach T R LT L R A (0.0) A (0.0) A (3.3) B (14.8) A (9.3) A (0.0) B (14.1) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 5 35 5 Max Queue (ft) 0 43 86 130 30 2031 Phase 2 Future Build + Imp. B (17.6) T R L T L LR B (11.8) B (18.8) C (27.7) A (4.3) C (25.3) B (16.9) B (12.6) Available Storage (ft) FULL 300 100 FULL FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 89 295 71 33 74 Max Queue (ft) 115 283 87 85 130 86 2036 Phase 3 Future Build B (15.5) T R L T L LR B (14.7) B (17.3) C (20.3) A (5.1) B (18.7) B (16.2) B (10.8) Available Storage (ft) FULL 300 100 FULL FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 104 150 61 35 60 Max Queue (ft) 125 162 84 70 138 57 2041 Full Build Future Build B (19.5) T R L T L LR B (16.8) C (22.9) C (25.7) A (5.0) C (23.2) C (20.4) B (13.7) Available Storage (ft) FULL 300 100 FULL FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 138 227 90 43 90 Max Queue (ft) 155 210 105 95 172 147 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 45 Table 7.3 (cont.) - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at Site Access 1 PM Peak Hour 2026 Phase 1 Future Build C (16.5) NB Approach T R LT L R A (0.0) A (0.0) A (0.6) C (17.6) B (10.1) A (0.0) C (16.5) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 5 50 5 Max Queue (ft) 0 0 51 122 47 2031 Phase 2 Future Build F (138.5) NB Approach T R L T L R A (0.0) A (0.0) A (0.8) F (156.6) B (10.8) A (0.0) F (138.5) Available Storage (ft) FULL 150 FULL FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 5 465 10 Max Queue (ft) 0 15 74 403 86 2031 Phase 2 Future Build + Imp. B (15.4) T R L T L LR B (17.5) B (16.4) C (24.0) B (10.2) B (16.5) B (17.1) B (11.4) Available Storage (ft) FULL 300 100 FULL FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 202 137 38 127 130 Max Queue (ft) 192 169 66 140 216 185 2036 Phase 3 Future Build B (16.2) T R L T L LR B (18.7) B (14.7) C (26.5) B (10.7) B (17.7) B (17.7) B (12.2) Available Storage (ft) FULL 300 100 FULL FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 248 83 46 144 153 Max Queue (ft) 228 108 59 167 201 179 2041 Full Build Future Build C (20.3) T R L T L LR C (24.3) B (18.3) C (33.1) B (12.3) C (21.9) C (22.6) B (14.6) Available Storage (ft) FULL 300 100 FULL FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 299 115 61 184 226 Max Queue (ft) 301 183 84 184 254 235 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 46 Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 2 Site Access 2 will serve as the eastern access point for the development and will be constructed for Phase 2 (2031). An eastbound right-turn lane with 100 feet of storage and appropriate taper is recommended. Turn lane warrants confirm the need for a turn lane in 2031. The unsignalized intersection approaches are expected to operate at LOS C or better in all scenarios. Table 7.4 - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at Site Access 2 Scenario Worst Approach Level of Service per Movement & by Approach (delay in seconds/vehicle) Eastbound Westbound Northbound AM Peak Hour 2031 Phase 2 Future Build B (10.5) NB Approach T R LT LR A (0.0) A (0.0) A (1.4) B (10.5) A (0.0) Available Storage (ft) FULL 100 FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 5 5 Max Queue (ft) 0 0 34 42 2036 Phase 3 Future Build B (10.8) NB Approach T R LT LR A (0.0) A (0.0) A (1.5) B (10.8) A (0.0) Available Storage (ft) FULL 100 FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 5 10 Max Queue (ft) 0 6 44 56 2041 Full Build Future Build B (11.6) NB Approach T R LT LR A (0.0) A (0.0) A (1.6) B (11.6) A (0.0) Available Storage (ft) FULL 100 FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 5 10 Max Queue (ft) 0 19 50 54 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 47 Table 7.4 (cont.) - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at Site Access 2 PM Peak Hour 2031 Phase 2 Future Build C (16.0) NB Approach T R LT LR A (0.0) A (0.0) A (0.4) C (16.0) A (0.0) Available Storage (ft) FULL 100 FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 0 30 Max Queue (ft) 0 0 39 66 2036 Phase 3 Future Build C (17.7) NB Approach T R LT LR A (0.0) A (0.0) A (0.5) C (17.7) A (0.0) Available Storage (ft) FULL 100 FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 5 35 Max Queue (ft) 0 2 52 87 2041 Full Build Future Build C (23.6) NB Approach T R LT LR A (0.0) A (0.0) A (0.6) C (23.6) A (0.0) Available Storage (ft) FULL 100 FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 5 70 Max Queue (ft) 0 0 66 118 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 48 Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 3 Site Access 3 will serve as the western access point for the development and will be constructed for Phase 3 (2036). Though the turn lane nomograph indicates the need for a right-turn lane with over 500 feet of storage, the movement is free flow with no conflicting movements. Per the table on page 78 of the NCDOT Policy on Street and Driveway Access to North Carolina Highways, only 50 feet of full width deceleration length plus a 200-foot taper is recommended to separate turning traffic from the 55-mph through traffic. The unsignalized intersection approaches are expected to operate at LOS B or better in all scenarios. Table 7.5 - LOS and Queueing Holly Shelter Road at Site Access 3 Scenario Worst Approach Level of Service per Movement & by Approach (delay in seconds/vehicle) Eastbound Westbound Northbound AM Peak Hour 2036 Phase 3 Future Build B (11.3) NB Approach T R T R A (0.0) A (0.0) A (0.0) B (11.3) A (0.0) Available Storage (ft) FULL 50 FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 0 5 Max Queue (ft) 0 0 0 0 2041 Full Build Future Build B (12.6) NB Approach T R T R A (0.0) A (0.0) A (0.0) B (12.6) A (0.0) Available Storage (ft) FULL 50 FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 0 5 Max Queue (ft) 0 0 0 0 PM Peak Hour 2036 Phase 3 Future Build B (11.9) NB Approach T R LT LR A (0.0) A (0.0) A (0.0) B (11.9) A (0.0) Available Storage (ft) FULL 50 FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 0 5 Max Queue (ft) 0 0 0 4 2041 Full Build Future Build B (12.9) NB Approach T R T R A (0.0) A (0.0) A (0.0) B (12.9) A (0.0) Available Storage (ft) FULL 50 FULL FULL 95th% Queue (ft) 0 0 0 10 Max Queue (ft) 0 0 0 18 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 49 8.0 Signal Warrant Analysis An analysis was performed to determine if a traffic control signal would be warranted at the study intersection of Holly Shelter Road and Site Access 1. The Federal Highway Administration (FHWA) criteria presented in the 2009 Edition of the Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD) were established to justify the installation of a traffic control signal. • Warrant 1, Eight-Hour Vehicular Volume • Warrant 2, Four-Hour Vehicular Volume • Warrant 3, Peak Hour • Warrant 4, Pedestrian Volume • Warrant 5, School Crossing • Warrant 6, Coordinated Signal System • Warrant 7, Crash Experience • Warrant 8, Roadway Network • Warrant 9, Intersection Near a Grade Crossing The applicable warrants (1, 2, and 3) were examined for each phase of future build conditions. The other warrants were not applied to this analysis. The satisfaction of a traffic signal warrant or warrants does not in itself require the installation of a traffic signal. Holly Shelter Road and Site Access 1 This proposed site access was analyzed for a signal using the MUTCD vehicular traffic volume signal warrants at each phase of development. Existing volumes at Site Access 1 were developed from the 13-hour traffic counts collected at Holly Shelter Road and the I-40 Westbound Ramps; to be conservative, it was assumed that all traffic at the ramps traveling to/from the east would pass Site Access 1. Future Build volumes were then developed by increasing traffic one percent (1%) annually and adding approved development and site generated trips. Because the posted speed limit exceeds 40 mph on Holly Shelter Road, the 70 percent factor was used. Reports from the analysis can be found in the Appendix. Table 8.1 summarizes the signal warrant results. The results of the analysis show that MUTCD Warrants 1, 2, and 3 are each met beginning with Phase 2 of the development. In Phase 1, Warrants 2 and 3 are met, while Warrant 1 is not. Per the MUTCD, satisfaction of a warrant or warrants does not require the installation of a traffic signal. As described in Section 7.1, Site Access 1 operates at LOS C or better under stop- controlled conditions in Phase 1. In Phase 2, it operates at LOS F with over 2 minutes of delay under stop-controlled conditions. It is recommended that the intersection be monitored for signalization after Phase 1 is occupied, and that a signal be installed as part of Phase 2 (unless the Phase 1 monitoring indicates a signal is needed sooner.) 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 50 Summary of Signal Warrants Table 8.1 – Signal Warrant Summary Holly Shelter Road and Site Access 1 # Required Hours Met Status Phase 1 Warrant 1: Eight-Hour Vehicular Volume -- NOT MET Warrant 1A – Minimum Vehicular Volume 5 of 8 NOT MET Warrant 1B – Interruption of Continuous Traffic 6 of 8 NOT MET Warrant 1C – Combination of A and B 7 of 8 NOT MET Warrant 2: Four-Hour Vehicular Volume 6 of 4 MET Warrant 3: Peak Hour 3 of 1 MET Phase 2 Warrant 1: Eight-Hour Vehicular Volume -- MET Warrant 1A – Minimum Vehicular Volume 12 of 8 MET Warrant 1B – Interruption of Continuous Traffic 13 of 8 MET Warrant 1C – Combination of A and B 13 of 8 MET Warrant 2: Four-Hour Vehicular Volume 11 of 4 MET Warrant 3: Peak Hour 10 of 1 MET Phase 3 Warrant 1: Eight-Hour Vehicular Volume -- MET Warrant 1A – Minimum Vehicular Volume 12 of 8 MET Warrant 1B – Interruption of Continuous Traffic 11 of 8 MET Warrant 1C – Combination of A and B 13 of 8 MET Warrant 2: Four-Hour Vehicular Volume 11 of 4 MET Warrant 3: Peak Hour 8 of 1 MET Full Build Warrant 1: Eight-Hour Vehicular Volume -- MET Warrant 1A – Minimum Vehicular Volume 13 of 8 MET Warrant 1B – Interruption of Continuous Traffic 13 of 8 MET Warrant 1C – Combination of A and B 13 of 8 MET Warrant 2: Four-Hour Vehicular Volume 13 of 4 MET Warrant 3: Peak Hour 11 of 1 MET 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 51 9.0 Summary and Conclusion The Holly Shelter Industrial Park development is located between 5700 and 6208 Holly Shelter Road in Castle Hayne, NC. The proposed development will consist of approximately 2.4 million square feet of industrial space to be developed over four phases. Three full movement access points are proposed on Holly Shelter Road. The expected full build-out year for this development is 2041. Phases 1, 2, and 3 have expected build-out years of 2026, 2031, and 2036, respectively. Information regarding the property was provided by New Hanover County. The Transportation Impact Analysis (TIA) was performed based on the scope agreed upon with the Wilmington Metropolitan Planning Organization (WMPO) and North Carolina Department of Transportation (NCDOT). This site has a full build-out trip generation potential of 9,341 daily trips, 1,293 trips in the AM peak hour, and 1,315 trips in the PM peak hour. In conclusion, this study has determined the potential traffic impact of this development. Improvements are recommended to accommodate the development traffic. Table 9.1 summarizes the recommended improvements, which are also reflected in Figure 17. With the recommended improvements in place, the anticipated transportation impact of the proposed development can be accommodated. Table 9.1 – Recommended Improvements INTERSECTION RECOMMENDATIONS Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and I-40 EB Ramps By Others • Install traffic control signal Recommended for others in conjunction with signal • Install northbound right-turn lane with overlap phasing Phase 1 • Extend northbound right-turn lane to at least 150 feet Phase 2 • Extend northbound right-turn lane to at least 275 feet Phase 3 • No additional improvements Full Build • Extend northbound right-turn lane to 350 feet Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and I-40 WB Ramps By Others • Install traffic control signal Recommended for others in conjunction with signal • Install northbound right-turn lane with overlap phasing Phase 1 • Extend northbound right-turn lane to at least 300 feet Phase 2 • Extend northbound right-turn lane to at least 350 feet Phase 3 • No additional improvements Full Build • Extend northbound right-turn lane to 400 feet 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 52 Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 1 Phase 1 • Construct an eastbound right-turn lane with at least 150 feet of storage and appropriate deceleration and taper • Construct two northbound (egress) lanes striped as an exclusive left-turn lane and an exclusive right-turn lane • Monitor for signalization Phase 2 • Install traffic control signal • Restripe the northbound approach (egress) as an exclusive left-turn lane and a shared left/right-turn lane • Construct a second receiving lane approximately 900 feet long on westbound Holly Shelter Road • Extend eastbound right-turn lane to 300 feet • Construct a westbound left-turn lane with at least 100 feet of storage and appropriate deceleration and taper Phase 3 & Full Build • No additional improvements Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 2 Phase 2 • Provide a single northbound egress lane • Install eastbound right-turn lane with 100 feet of storage and appropriate deceleration and taper Phase 3 & Full Build • No additional improvements Holly Shelter Road (SR 1002) and Site Access 3 Phase 3 • Provide a northbound right-turn only egress lane with a channelizing island to prevent westbound left-turns • Construct an eastbound deceleration lane with 50 feet of full width and 200 feet of taper Full Build • No additional improvements *** NOT TO SCALE *** N This document, together with the concepts and designs presented herein, is intended only for the specificpurpose and client for which it was prepared. Reuse of, or improper reliance on, this document by others withoutwritten authorization and adaptation by DAVENPORT, shall be without liability to DAVENPORT, and shall be aviolation of the agreement between DAVENPORT and the client. FIGURE 17 RECOMMENDED IMPROVEMENTS HOLLY SHELTER INDUSTRIAL PARK CASTLE HAYNE, NC PROJECT NUMBER 232043 TRAFFIC MOVEMENT ROADWAY LEGEND SIGNAL STOP Ph a s e 3 R o a d w a y Id e a l C e m e n t Ro a d I- 4 0 E B Holly Shelter Road Ph a s e 2 R o a d w a y Ph a s e 1 R o a d w a y I- 4 0 W B 175'FULL 150' 15 0 ' / 27 5 ' /35 0 ' FULL FU L L 50' 100' 150'/300' FU L L FU L L 100' FU L L BLACK = EXISTING GREY = UNANALYZED GREEN = COMMITTED BLUE = PHASE 1 ORANGE = PHASE 2 PINK = PHASE 3 RED = FULL BUILD 30 0 ' /35 0 ' /40 0 ' 900' 10/08/2024 232043 Holly Shelter Industrial Park 54 Appendix